Compassionate-Camel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$34

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

60.3%

Resolved

Trades

111

lifetime

Volume

$1.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$76

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-20

last 09-12 20:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Other

74% 58% -$24

Politics

26% 64% +$58

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+167	$40	17¢	$28	-$12	07-26 10:22
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+20	$13	80¢	$16	+$3	06-08 23:09
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	+60	$21	26¢	$16	-$5	06-11 04:44
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	-12	-$10	96¢	$-12	-$1	05-01 05:08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	-7	-$5	64¢	$-4	+$1	06-02 22:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	9	$110	260	292	-32	No	-$15	06-26 03:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	3	$70	77	39	+38	No	+$32	05-23 22:57
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	5	$54	9,667	169	+9,497	Yes	-$6	03-31 00:22
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	2	$50	60	0	+60	No	+$10	08-21 20:50
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$50	86	0	+86	Yes	+$36	03-29 07:10
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$45	62	62	+0	Yes	+$15	03-24 05:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	1	$44	44	0	+44	No	+$1	04-27 05:33
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	2	$42	30	30	+0	Yes	+$18	06-27 04:04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$40	167	0	+167	open	—	07-26 10:22
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	2	$38	30	30	+0	Yes	-$3	06-16 00:34
highest temperature in hong kong on april 15 2026 28c	2	$36	20	20	+0	Yes	+$4	04-15 10:48
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$35	30	12	+18	Yes	+$5	07-29 07:03
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	2	$34	40	0	+40	Yes	-$34	07-15 18:05
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	1	$31	0	40	-40	No	-$9	05-24 08:32
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	5	$29	38	38	+0	Yes	-$1	05-23 22:57
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	2	$24	20	20	+0	open	—	08-12 04:05
will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of june from june 23	1	$24	25	0	+25	No	+$2	06-26 03:58
Canada's population Up or Down this year?	1	$22	30	0	+30	open	—	05-04 06:08
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	1	$21	60	0	+60	open	—	06-11 04:44
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$21	12	12	+0	Yes	+$1	05-02 18:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	2	$20	20	20	+0	No	+$1	05-04 18:24
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	2	$20	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	04-12 23:40
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	03-17 05:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$20	11	11	+0	Yes	+$0	03-31 22:39
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	05-23 00:19
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-16 00:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$20	13	13	+0	No	$0	03-21 23:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	1	$19	20	0	+20	No	+$1	05-28 06:33
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	1	$19	20	0	+20	No	+$1	05-31 02:41
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of june	1	$19	20	0	+20	No	+$1	06-17 06:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-12 20:12:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x4b3980…
09-02 08:53:01	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 11	No	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x597e8c…
08-27 21:01:37	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america in 2026	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x705038…
08-21 20:50:15	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x56c5dc…
08-12 04:05:22	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x13b8e2…
07-29 07:03:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x757c36…
07-26 10:22:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x97a039…
07-23 12:54:16	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	30	35¢	$11	0x1e3733…
07-15 18:05:35	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xbe791a…
07-09 19:07:14	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xb80255…
07-09 18:43:01	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x4fbc44…
07-08 00:58:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x115d62…
06-30 09:08:16	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xd67b92…
06-30 09:04:59	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x3bf6eb…
06-27 04:04:46	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x1787a3…
06-26 03:58:14	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of june from june 23	No	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0x9920b7…
06-26 03:56:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	105	5¢	$5	0xa8f797…
06-20 04:32:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x85ed5d…
06-18 17:06:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x7b4071…
06-18 17:01:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	105	15¢	$16	0x1797f0…
06-18 03:03:31	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x691016…
06-17 06:00:19	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of june	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xcb00e6…
06-16 08:27:54	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xeefee3…
06-16 00:36:07	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of june	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xaecf94…
06-16 00:35:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x6b6669…
06-16 00:34:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	No	SELL	30	58¢	$17	0x87163c…
06-12 23:17:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x869cf2…
06-11 04:44:58	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	60	35¢	$21	0x8778fc…
06-08 23:09:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x5dd737…
06-07 18:56:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x46d29b…
06-06 03:42:43	Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	28	0¢	$0	0xb53168…
06-02 22:26:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x8832cb…
06-01 16:17:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	110	18¢	$20	0x43b69c…
05-31 02:41:26	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xba1651…
05-28 06:33:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x4f455b…
05-26 00:53:53	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x7845a7…
05-26 00:36:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	25	43¢	$11	0x0d9101…
05-24 08:32:44	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	SELL	40	77¢	$31	0xd3c84b…
05-24 08:31:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	25	58¢	$14	0x87438a…
05-23 22:57:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x8a9e2c…
05-23 22:57:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	39	81¢	$32	0x16a334…
05-23 00:22:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x5f3433…
05-23 00:19:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7cccf4…
05-23 00:16:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	26	6¢	$2	0x57afc6…
05-22 23:46:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	24	14¢	$3	0xfc21c2…
05-22 23:45:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x2c8240…
05-21 22:20:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x5ab7a5…
05-21 22:19:09	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6b4584…
05-14 07:21:08	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x94eba5…
05-14 07:20:28	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xfa3b29…
05-14 05:54:32	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xb9c4d5…
05-13 03:18:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x277c62…
05-12 05:13:14	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xa89560…
05-12 05:11:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0xdb3e8c…
05-12 05:10:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	16	66¢	$11	0x1b119c…
05-11 17:27:21	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x37d458…
05-11 16:05:48	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x3c264a…
05-06 09:16:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	16	43¢	$7	0x6749bb…
05-06 09:15:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x3ff2f6…
05-04 18:24:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x730fdd…
05-04 06:08:28	Canada's population Up or Down this year?	Down	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x43bf92…
05-03 19:28:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0x8cbb2f…
05-02 18:33:22	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0x2e87f9…
05-01 05:18:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x25402b…
05-01 05:08:56	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x9c8f96…
04-27 05:33:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	BUY	44	98¢	$44	0xfd7144…
04-27 05:32:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xfaf08f…
04-25 13:59:18	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	38¢	$10	0x5226d0…
04-25 02:18:12	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x5e758f…
04-18 20:44:52	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	SELL	30	18¢	$5	0x3c3325…
04-18 20:44:40	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xa3c87a…
04-15 13:07:22	Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0xb2b4da…
04-15 10:48:14	highest temperature in hong kong on april 15 2026 28c	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xeed069…
04-15 10:45:46	Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x698bde…
04-15 06:01:20	highest temperature in hong kong on april 15 2026 28c	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x2cfb75…
04-12 23:40:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	29	36¢	$10	0x920704…
04-11 06:05:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x4923cc…
04-09 05:26:25	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0x4e6016…
04-08 20:34:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xbb3be1…
04-08 04:45:07	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x2451ad…
03-31 22:39:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0xbffa98…
03-31 00:22:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	No	BUY	9,413	0¢	$10	0x199ee2…
03-29 07:10:52	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x9d0899…
03-27 23:17:29	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x1e9b53…
03-27 23:16:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x897ac9…
03-27 23:15:49	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	No	BUY	84	12¢	$10	0x01585e…
03-27 23:14:49	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x07e1d2…
03-27 19:00:57	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	No	SELL	90	7¢	$6	0x41bfc0…
03-26 05:48:39	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xeae5df…
03-25 08:49:03	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xfe621e…
03-24 05:40:25	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	25	54¢	$14	0xf6981d…
03-23 13:30:35	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	No	SELL	80	22¢	$18	0xd429d4…
03-21 23:11:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	13	72¢	$10	0x9816f3…
03-21 02:19:41	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	25	28¢	$7	0xbef462…
03-20 21:36:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x733691…
03-20 21:36:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x299484…
03-20 21:35:51	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xb5efe7…
03-17 05:02:59	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x3bb4b8…
03-17 05:02:01	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x37d937…
03-14 07:22:07	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	51	10¢	$5	0x390c7c…