Unusual-Mercury — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$369

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

5.6%

Resolved

Trades

301

lifetime

Volume

$150.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$498

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-07

last 07-12 16:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

74% 0% $-369

Crypto

16% — —

Politics

10% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	24	$24.4K	22,629	21,992	+637	open	—	04-11 16:52
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	20	$13.5K	13,303	13,303	+0	open	—	07-12 16:10
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	4	$12.0K	12,675	12,675	+0	open	—	03-08 22:07
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$10.1K	5,336	5,336	+0	open	—	03-08 22:19
will the us invade iran by march 31	5	$9.3K	35,024	35,024	+0	open	—	03-13 23:41
ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 total 2pt5	2	$7.7K	6,822	6,822	+0	open	—	03-18 20:58
es2 zar rrc 2026 03 29 total 1pt5	2	$5.9K	4,159	4,159	+0	open	—	03-29 16:49
ucl cfc1 psg1 2026 03 17 total 2pt5	2	$5.1K	3,360	3,360	+0	open	—	03-17 20:51
es2 spo dep 2026 03 28 total 1pt5	2	$4.8K	3,518	3,518	+0	open	—	03-28 21:17
lal lev sev 2026 04 23 total 1pt5	3	$3.5K	2,749	2,725	+24	open	—	04-23 17:20
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	5	$3.5K	2,837	2,837	+0	open	—	04-29 19:27
es2 vld bur 2026 03 28 total 1pt5	3	$3.4K	3,106	3,106	+0	open	—	03-28 15:46
fif lit geo 2026 03 29 total 1pt5	2	$3.2K	2,889	2,889	+0	open	—	03-29 13:41
uef pol alb 2026 03 26 total 1pt5	2	$3.0K	1,798	1,798	+0	open	—	03-26 21:46
elc por ips 2026 01 04 total 1pt5	3	$2.8K	2,242	2,242	+0	open	—	04-14 19:19
fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 total 1pt5	2	$2.8K	2,337	2,337	+0	open	—	06-19 01:27
fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	4	$2.2K	1,361	1,361	+0	open	—	06-13 22:27
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5	2	$1.9K	1,348	1,337	+11	open	—	04-27 19:16
epl sun not 2026 04 24 total 1pt5	2	$1.7K	1,053	1,044	+9	open	—	04-24 19:19
fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 total 1pt5	2	$1.6K	926	926	+0	open	—	06-14 06:02
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 1pt5	3	$1.6K	1,108	1,108	+0	open	—	06-16 19:33
fif mex prt 2026 03 28 total 2pt5	1	$1.5K	2,895	0	+2,895	open	—	03-29 00:35
es2 leg zar 2026 04 02 total 2pt5	2	$1.5K	1,729	1,150	+579	open	—	04-02 21:04
fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 total 1pt5	2	$1.5K	1,011	1,011	+0	open	—	06-15 22:46
fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 1pt5	2	$1.5K	956	956	+0	open	—	06-11 19:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$1.3K	800	800	+0	open	—	04-21 21:56
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	4	$1.2K	1,328	1,328	+0	open	—	06-16 19:32
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	2	$1.2K	1,231	1,231	+0	open	—	06-04 10:20
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$1.2K	1,516	1,516	+0	open	—	06-04 10:57
fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 total 1pt5	2	$1.1K	704	704	+0	open	—	06-17 20:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 16:10:50	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	45¢	$16	0xaf56ad…
07-12 07:40:32	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	47¢	$17	0x05fc8b…
07-12 01:57:50	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	23	76¢	$17	0xe31dd2…
07-11 21:59:08	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0xd4e7c4…
07-11 21:58:23	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	14	81¢	$11	0x5402b2…
07-11 13:06:26	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xc8c620…
07-10 22:51:16	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0xf8454d…
07-10 20:47:11	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xdda052…
07-10 05:29:22	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x8a4f2d…
06-29 22:13:41	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	311	48¢	$150	0x9bae8f…
06-29 22:00:38	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	311	63¢	$196	0xaf0d11…
06-24 15:47:44	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,782	41¢	$736	0xe4070f…
06-24 13:00:08	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,782	42¢	$750	0x6277bb…
06-21 22:23:37	fifwc ury cvi 2026 06 21 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	143	89¢	$127	0x598fd6…
06-21 17:13:02	fifwc ury cvi 2026 06 21 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	143	69¢	$98	0x6d943a…
06-20 22:15:56	fifwc tun jpn 2026 06 21 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	98	72¢	$70	0x22ac71…
06-19 01:27:04	fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	2,337	49¢	$1,145	0x1ebe64…
06-18 22:47:23	fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	2,337	72¢	$1,682	0x680518…
06-18 04:31:56	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	820	50¢	$409	0xd62683…
06-17 20:14:02	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	704	89¢	$627	0x0f9cc8…
06-17 08:58:53	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	820	53¢	$439	0x25279e…
06-17 08:54:37	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	704	71¢	$500	0x833567…
06-16 21:44:14	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,184	48¢	$1,055	0x8a817b…
06-16 19:33:02	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1,108	65¢	$720	0xdd7c94…
06-16 19:32:55	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	1,328	38¢	$505	0x7a3c2f…
06-16 16:11:19	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	67	57¢	$38	0x0e95b5…
06-16 16:10:55	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x7e0d04…
06-16 16:10:26	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	246	57¢	$140	0x7e4cc0…
06-16 16:10:04	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 second half total 1pt5	Over	SELL	608	47¢	$285	0x75eed6…
06-16 13:18:13	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 second half total 1pt5	Over	BUY	608	49¢	$298	0x7d9cf3…
06-16 13:17:34	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	616	50¢	$308	0xdbcd2c…
06-16 06:54:52	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	1,016	53¢	$538	0xf76a06…
06-16 06:54:18	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,100	51¢	$558	0x9bca38…
06-16 04:34:46	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	983	77¢	$757	0xa94fa5…
06-15 22:46:07	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1,011	77¢	$778	0xbbd649…
06-15 21:02:19	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1,011	72¢	$728	0xd17636…
06-15 21:01:52	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	50¢	$750	0x28a14e…
06-15 20:07:33	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,050	50¢	$528	0x1d0c95…
06-14 21:38:28	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	516	52¢	$269	0x6d7e8b…
06-14 06:02:27	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	926	100¢	$925	0x57716e…
06-14 05:13:13	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	926	75¢	$695	0xc0bc72…
06-13 22:30:36	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	449	51¢	$229	0xca591a…
06-13 22:28:46	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,982	51¢	$1,521	0xb30405…
06-13 22:27:30	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1,361	88¢	$1,197	0x54532c…
06-13 21:14:03	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	345	72¢	$248	0x929421…
06-13 06:58:49	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	988	71¢	$702	0x4d8f25…
06-13 05:24:19	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	27	72¢	$20	0x01ff0c…
06-12 20:07:49	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	25	81¢	$20	0xe1a831…
06-12 05:29:15	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0xb65817…
06-11 21:23:18	fifwc kr cze 2026 06 11 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x388115…
06-11 21:19:45	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	82¢	$9	0xefcdba…
06-11 19:19:22	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,674	48¢	$800	0xdeb9b4…
06-11 19:18:54	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	956	86¢	$822	0x4838dd…
06-11 16:03:10	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	956	71¢	$679	0x780bd7…
06-11 16:02:18	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,473	48¢	$700	0xf415bf…
06-09 14:41:51	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	549	89¢	$489	0x539715…
06-08 10:40:24	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0x054232…
06-04 10:57:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	1,516	38¢	$576	0x90bf7a…
06-04 10:54:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	993	24¢	$238	0x3cb683…
06-04 10:20:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,231	50¢	$620	0x68b78d…
06-03 05:44:25	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,301	64¢	$1,473	0xc31bab…
06-03 00:24:20	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,742	55¢	$1,508	0xc162fc…
06-02 16:47:18	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	Yes	BUY	565	88¢	$496	0xc59393…
06-02 13:13:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	850	55¢	$470	0xeae95f…
06-02 13:09:04	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,892	53¢	$1,000	0x0464e0…
06-01 22:36:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	993	30¢	$298	0xa5b2b4…
06-01 22:35:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,516	40¢	$600	0xb4547c…
06-01 22:35:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,231	49¢	$600	0xb7870f…
05-13 18:16:09	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	779	24¢	$187	0xfe11fa…
05-13 18:14:31	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x87b7c0…
05-13 02:24:12	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	789	71¢	$558	0xdf3d63…
04-29 19:27:46	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	2,837	53¢	$1,496	0x65b956…
04-29 14:41:08	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	329	70¢	$230	0x29e086…
04-29 14:40:44	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	286	70¢	$200	0x5fddbe…
04-29 14:39:32	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1,500	70¢	$1,050	0x799877…
04-29 14:39:02	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	722	69¢	$500	0x94e6d4…
04-27 19:16:48	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	1,337	69¢	$923	0x565290…
04-27 17:57:24	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1,348	73¢	$984	0x266b74…
04-25 14:13:36	West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	542	72¢	$388	0xfa1f9c…
04-25 14:13:28	VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	603	57¢	$343	0x431b11…
04-25 12:25:00	VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	606	82¢	$497	0xd5831c…
04-25 12:24:12	Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	560	89¢	$498	0x6ee655…
04-25 11:21:46	Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	534	75¢	$401	0x89717f…
04-25 11:21:34	West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	458	78¢	$357	0x17d96a…
04-25 01:39:18	CA Platense vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xbfbc0a…
04-25 00:05:46	Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x9d5a2a…
04-24 22:30:44	West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	88	76¢	$67	0x3a2b8e…
04-24 19:30:26	Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?	Yes	SELL	811	4¢	$35	0x3e329b…
04-24 19:19:58	epl sun not 2026 04 24 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1,044	87¢	$908	0x8e7996…
04-24 12:11:36	epl sun not 2026 04 24 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1,053	71¢	$748	0xccbcba…
04-23 20:21:00	Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?	Yes	BUY	811	11¢	$89	0x3db020…
04-23 17:20:06	lal lev sev 2026 04 23 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	2,725	57¢	$1,553	0x0a78c5…
04-23 15:53:40	lal lev sev 2026 04 23 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	2,111	71¢	$1,499	0x860ed7…
04-23 15:05:54	lal lev sev 2026 04 23 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	638	71¢	$453	0x7cd7a9…
04-23 15:05:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	537	38¢	$204	0x50eed0…
04-23 15:02:44	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	SELL	81	3¢	$3	0x79b609…
04-23 12:30:20	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	180	76¢	$137	0x82fe1a…
04-22 13:45:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	52¢	$30	0xb654ff…
04-22 02:12:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	51¢	$29	0x81c6fb…
04-22 02:08:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xfa3dd7…