Unusual-Mercury — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$369

Unrealized P&L

-$167

Hit rate

5.6%

Resolved

Trades

263

lifetime

Volume

$134.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$513

Open exposure

$3.39K

1 position

First seen

2026-03-07

last 06-14 21:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

71% 0% $-369

Crypto

18% — —

Politics

11% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes		+6,450	$3,553	52¢	$3.4K	$-167	06-14 21:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	24	$24.4K	22,629	21,992	+637	open	—	04-11 16:52
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	4	$12.0K	12,675	12,675	+0	open	—	03-08 22:07
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$10.1K	5,336	5,336	+0	open	—	03-08 22:19
will the us invade iran by march 31	5	$9.3K	35,024	35,024	+0	open	—	03-13 23:41
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	9	$8.0K	10,665	4,215	+6,450	open	—	06-14 21:38
ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 total 2pt5	2	$7.7K	6,822	6,822	+0	open	—	03-18 20:58
es2 zar rrc 2026 03 29 total 1pt5	2	$5.9K	4,159	4,159	+0	open	—	03-29 16:49
ucl cfc1 psg1 2026 03 17 total 2pt5	2	$5.1K	3,360	3,360	+0	open	—	03-17 20:51
es2 spo dep 2026 03 28 total 1pt5	2	$4.8K	3,518	3,518	+0	open	—	03-28 21:17
lal lev sev 2026 04 23 total 1pt5	3	$3.5K	2,749	2,725	+24	open	—	04-23 17:20
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	5	$3.5K	2,837	2,837	+0	open	—	04-29 19:27
es2 vld bur 2026 03 28 total 1pt5	3	$3.4K	3,106	3,106	+0	open	—	03-28 15:46
fif lit geo 2026 03 29 total 1pt5	2	$3.2K	2,889	2,889	+0	open	—	03-29 13:41
uef pol alb 2026 03 26 total 1pt5	2	$3.0K	1,798	1,798	+0	open	—	03-26 21:46
elc por ips 2026 01 04 total 1pt5	3	$2.8K	2,242	2,242	+0	open	—	04-14 19:19
fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	4	$2.2K	1,361	1,361	+0	open	—	06-13 22:27
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5	2	$1.9K	1,348	1,337	+11	open	—	04-27 19:16
epl sun not 2026 04 24 total 1pt5	2	$1.7K	1,053	1,044	+9	open	—	04-24 19:19
fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 total 1pt5	2	$1.6K	926	926	+0	open	—	06-14 06:02
fif mex prt 2026 03 28 total 2pt5	1	$1.5K	2,895	0	+2,895	open	—	03-29 00:35
es2 leg zar 2026 04 02 total 2pt5	2	$1.5K	1,729	1,150	+579	open	—	04-02 21:04
fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 1pt5	2	$1.5K	956	956	+0	open	—	06-11 19:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$1.3K	800	800	+0	open	—	04-21 21:56
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	2	$1.2K	1,231	1,231	+0	open	—	06-04 10:20
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$1.2K	1,516	1,516	+0	open	—	06-04 10:57
lal rea mad 2026 03 22 total 2pt5	2	$1.1K	684	684	+0	open	—	03-22 22:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	6	$1.0K	448	848	-400	open	—	04-21 20:32
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	4	$998	565	565	+0	open	—	06-11 21:19
Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5	3	$921	564	560	+4	open	—	04-25 12:24
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5	2	$840	606	603	+3	open	—	04-25 14:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 21:38:28	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	516	52¢	$269	0x6d7e8b…
06-14 06:02:27	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	926	100¢	$925	0x57716e…
06-14 05:13:13	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	926	75¢	$695	0xc0bc72…
06-13 22:30:36	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	449	51¢	$229	0xca591a…
06-13 22:28:46	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,982	51¢	$1,521	0xb30405…
06-13 22:27:30	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1,361	88¢	$1,197	0x54532c…
06-13 21:14:03	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	345	72¢	$248	0x929421…
06-13 06:58:49	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	988	71¢	$702	0x4d8f25…
06-13 05:24:19	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	27	72¢	$20	0x01ff0c…
06-12 20:07:49	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	25	81¢	$20	0xe1a831…
06-12 05:29:15	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0xb65817…
06-11 21:23:18	fifwc kr cze 2026 06 11 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x388115…
06-11 21:19:45	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	82¢	$9	0xefcdba…
06-11 19:19:22	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,674	48¢	$800	0xdeb9b4…
06-11 19:18:54	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	956	86¢	$822	0x4838dd…
06-11 16:03:10	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	956	71¢	$679	0x780bd7…
06-11 16:02:18	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,473	48¢	$700	0xf415bf…
06-09 14:41:51	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	549	89¢	$489	0x539715…
06-08 10:40:24	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0x054232…
06-04 10:57:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	1,516	38¢	$576	0x90bf7a…
06-04 10:54:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	993	24¢	$238	0x3cb683…
06-04 10:20:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,231	50¢	$620	0x68b78d…
06-03 05:44:25	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,301	64¢	$1,473	0xc31bab…
06-03 00:24:20	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,742	55¢	$1,508	0xc162fc…
06-02 16:47:18	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	Yes	BUY	565	88¢	$496	0xc59393…
06-02 13:13:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	850	55¢	$470	0xeae95f…
06-02 13:09:04	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,892	53¢	$1,000	0x0464e0…
06-01 22:36:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	993	30¢	$298	0xa5b2b4…
06-01 22:35:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,516	40¢	$600	0xb4547c…
06-01 22:35:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,231	49¢	$600	0xb7870f…
05-13 18:16:09	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	779	24¢	$187	0xfe11fa…
05-13 18:14:31	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x87b7c0…
05-13 02:24:12	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	789	71¢	$558	0xdf3d63…
04-29 19:27:46	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	2,837	53¢	$1,496	0x65b956…
04-29 14:41:08	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	329	70¢	$230	0x29e086…
04-29 14:40:44	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	286	70¢	$200	0x5fddbe…
04-29 14:39:32	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1,500	70¢	$1,050	0x799877…
04-29 14:39:02	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	722	69¢	$500	0x94e6d4…
04-27 19:16:48	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	1,337	69¢	$923	0x565290…
04-27 17:57:24	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1,348	73¢	$984	0x266b74…
04-25 14:13:36	West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	542	72¢	$388	0xfa1f9c…
04-25 14:13:28	VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	603	57¢	$343	0x431b11…
04-25 12:25:00	VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	606	82¢	$497	0xd5831c…
04-25 12:24:12	Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	560	89¢	$498	0x6ee655…
04-25 11:21:46	Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	534	75¢	$401	0x89717f…
04-25 11:21:34	West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	458	78¢	$357	0x17d96a…
04-25 01:39:18	CA Platense vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xbfbc0a…
04-25 00:05:46	Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x9d5a2a…
04-24 22:30:44	West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	88	76¢	$67	0x3a2b8e…
04-24 19:30:26	Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?	Yes	SELL	811	4¢	$35	0x3e329b…
04-24 19:19:58	epl sun not 2026 04 24 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1,044	87¢	$908	0x8e7996…
04-24 12:11:36	epl sun not 2026 04 24 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1,053	71¢	$748	0xccbcba…
04-23 20:21:00	Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?	Yes	BUY	811	11¢	$89	0x3db020…
04-23 17:20:06	lal lev sev 2026 04 23 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	2,725	57¢	$1,553	0x0a78c5…
04-23 15:53:40	lal lev sev 2026 04 23 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	2,111	71¢	$1,499	0x860ed7…
04-23 15:05:54	lal lev sev 2026 04 23 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	638	71¢	$453	0x7cd7a9…
04-23 15:05:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	537	38¢	$204	0x50eed0…
04-23 15:02:44	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	SELL	81	3¢	$3	0x79b609…
04-23 12:30:20	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	180	76¢	$137	0x82fe1a…
04-22 13:45:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	52¢	$30	0xb654ff…
04-22 02:12:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	51¢	$29	0x81c6fb…
04-22 02:08:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xfa3dd7…
04-22 02:08:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xe31f3f…
04-22 02:08:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xedc0e9…
04-22 01:57:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	51¢	$104	0xf6d092…
04-22 01:54:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	51¢	$104	0x23aa77…
04-22 01:52:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xf43e81…
04-22 01:51:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xe154a3…
04-22 01:44:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x8d6174…
04-22 01:43:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x45a742…
04-22 01:43:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x12a9e2…
04-22 01:43:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xcf0a3e…
04-22 01:43:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xcc2803…
04-22 01:43:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x58b6ca…
04-22 01:42:04	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	19¢	$96	0xcad923…
04-22 01:40:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x029c7f…
04-22 01:38:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x6cbc04…
04-22 01:33:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	51¢	$18	0x427da1…
04-22 01:33:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x367130…
04-22 01:33:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x076e99…
04-22 00:45:20	Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?	No	SELL	147	77¢	$113	0x2ae0f7…
04-22 00:14:56	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0xc71f46…
04-22 00:11:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	19¢	$15	0xd0b25a…
04-22 00:11:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	226	19¢	$43	0x7f4f80…
04-22 00:11:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	19¢	$13	0x66a5d6…
04-22 00:11:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	19¢	$25	0x5f0ed1…
04-22 00:07:38	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x42619f…
04-21 23:46:42	spx up or down on april 22 2026	Up	SELL	81	70¢	$57	0xefe324…
04-21 23:37:54	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x5bf823…
04-21 23:29:56	spx up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	169	68¢	$115	0x05ab3a…
04-21 23:22:34	spx up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	81	68¢	$55	0xc2fec6…
04-21 23:17:38	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xefb44d…
04-21 23:15:48	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x925d1f…
04-21 23:13:42	Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?	No	BUY	150	76¢	$114	0x3bc16c…
04-21 23:13:08	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x733ede…
04-21 21:56:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	400	87¢	$348	0x022e2e…
04-21 20:50:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	400	86¢	$344	0xa69824…
04-21 20:32:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	71	86¢	$61	0x287eba…
04-21 20:31:32	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	377	86¢	$323	0xfa9130…
04-21 20:12:50	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x82a8b2…