Third-Chief — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29.3K

Unrealized P&L

-$356

Hit rate

35.0%

Resolved

161

Trades

11,347

lifetime

Volume

$128.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$62

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-19 12:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

78% 41% -$8,135

Crypto

21% 12% -$21,120

Politics

0% 38% -$102

Sports

0% 100% +$21

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 463 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in October?	Yes	+5,995	$186	0¢	$27	-$159	10-19 12:51
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in October?	Yes	+5,095	$100	0¢	$13	-$87	10-19 12:52
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in October?	Yes	+8,314	$39	0¢	$12	-$27	10-19 12:49
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in October?	Yes	+6,484	$48	0¢	$10	-$38	10-19 12:47
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-5	$0	8¢	$-0	+$0	05-05 09:34
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+0	$45	4¢	$0	-$45	09-15 05:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
andrew tate of tweets march 10 march 17 2026 0 99	74	$18.9K	11,106	11,153	-47	Yes	+$1,632	03-17 18:03
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	627	$17.5K	399,027	347,683	+51,344	No	-$2,143	01-22 15:06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	16	$11.2K	40,515	4,310	+36,205	Yes	-$6,834	09-11 13:44
andrew tate of tweets march 10 march 17 2026 100 129	46	$10.7K	7,849	7,849	+0	No	+$3,727	03-17 18:02
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	495	$9.9K	817,339	884,839	-67,500	No	$0	03-13 15:33
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	2,631	$6.0K	2,357,288	2,355,854	+1,435	No	+$731	06-17 17:58
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$5.8K	528,238	528,238	+0	No	-$528	01-09 13:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	25	$4.0K	24,846	0	+24,846	No	-$4,023	09-15 03:08
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	288	$3.7K	416,508	0	+416,508	No	-$3,696	01-19 15:29
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	27	$3.4K	8,893	8,893	+0	open	—	09-15 05:54
will bitcoin reach 120k in january 2026	291	$3.4K	394,818	0	+394,818	No	-$3,418	01-24 10:01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	171	$3.1K	330,094	241,276	+88,818	No	-$582	09-15 13:12
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	428	$3.1K	316,606	0	+316,606	No	-$3,133	01-21 07:28
will bitcoin reach 125k in january 2026	266	$2.1K	215,062	0	+215,062	No	-$2,142	01-21 08:03
will bitcoin reach 115k in january 2026	174	$2.0K	206,205	0	+206,205	No	-$2,004	01-23 15:13
andrew tate of tweets march 6 march 13 2026 0 99	30	$1.7K	3,321	3,321	+0	No	-$57	03-11 10:50
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	852	$1.7K	600,792	600,792	+0	No	+$71	09-15 15:10
will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	206	$1.6K	97,374	97,374	+0	No	+$31	03-19 18:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$1.5K	840	840	+0	Yes	+$204	07-29 18:32
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$1.3K	433,423	433,423	+0	No	-$433	03-14 09:44
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	75	$1.2K	142,351	141,087	+1,264	No	+$181	06-17 17:58
will ethereum reach 4400 in january 2026	104	$1.1K	114,558	0	+114,558	No	-$1,102	01-21 02:23
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	199	$829	105,907	113,389	-7,482	No	-$18	03-09 14:12
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	7	$791	47,934	0	+47,934	No	-$791	09-14 09:32
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	224	$665	61,612	61,478	+134	No	-$73	03-19 23:12
will bitcoin reach 110k in january 2026	113	$658	99,792	0	+99,792	No	-$658	01-23 15:13
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?	2	$574	27,606	0	+27,606	No	-$574	09-14 09:30
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	23	$538	212,567	212,567	+0	No	+$113	03-18 16:58
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	15	$533	40,741	40,741	+0	No	-$200	06-23 17:01
will ethereum reach 4200 in january 2026	51	$517	62,650	0	+62,650	No	-$517	01-25 02:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 12:52:41	Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in October?	Yes	BUY	5,095	2¢	$100	0x13d88f…
10-19 12:51:47	Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	3,000	3¢	$93	0x8006a5…
10-19 12:51:30	Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	2,995	3¢	$93	0x7d7327…
10-19 12:49:33	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in October?	Yes	BUY	4,139	1¢	$23	0x293bc7…
10-19 12:49:15	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in October?	Yes	BUY	4,174	0¢	$17	0x0d9551…
10-19 12:47:20	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in October?	Yes	BUY	3,014	1¢	$24	0x558755…
10-19 12:47:02	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in October?	Yes	BUY	3,036	1¢	$21	0xc03982…
10-19 12:46:45	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in October?	Yes	BUY	433	0¢	$2	0xa167ab…
09-15 15:10:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	49,336	0¢	$49	0x355d9f…
09-15 14:47:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,040	0¢	$1	0x9a7c87…
09-15 14:45:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	55,000	0¢	$55	0xfc1f51…
09-15 14:43:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf9a958…
09-15 14:35:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x2f40d3…
09-15 14:18:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,590	0¢	$3	0x62eced…
09-15 14:03:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x8d5cb6…
09-15 13:45:06	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,100	0¢	$1	0xccfaba…
09-15 13:40:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x1fe207…
09-15 13:31:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$2	0x5daf3e…
09-15 13:29:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x13f7ee…
09-15 13:12:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x3763b6…
09-15 13:10:52	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	85	0¢	$0	0xda352e…
09-15 13:10:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	86	0¢	$0	0xf14481…
09-15 13:09:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,684	0¢	$4	0x3a0ca8…
09-15 12:58:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,319	0¢	$21	0xbb9f34…
09-15 12:50:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,011	0¢	$10	0xffbd14…
09-15 12:48:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$0	0x4060c9…
09-15 12:47:13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20,266	0¢	$41	0xa9c4c7…
09-15 12:40:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,215	0¢	$10	0xc5eccb…
09-15 12:27:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0x897a37…
09-15 12:25:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	113	0¢	$0	0x5e4215…
09-15 12:16:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	132	0¢	$0	0x18cd0e…
09-15 12:14:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	633	0¢	$1	0x5c3bc1…
09-15 12:08:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0x93eea6…
09-15 12:08:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	185	0¢	$0	0xf92afe…
09-15 11:59:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0x250e9e…
09-15 11:58:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,695	0¢	$5	0x1b5a88…
09-15 11:31:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,333	0¢	$7	0x5af8c5…
09-15 05:54:03	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,757	19¢	$524	0xae3686…
09-15 05:50:34	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	19¢	$6	0x1a0ce6…
09-15 05:48:33	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	19¢	$11	0x03a72d…
09-15 05:46:54	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	19¢	$6	0x13a36b…
09-15 05:46:33	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	19¢	$190	0x85546c…
09-15 05:33:43	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,258	19¢	$239	0x08a4dc…
09-15 05:26:24	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	19¢	$5	0xbf9fd9…
09-15 05:22:54	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	526	19¢	$100	0xd04dfd…
09-15 05:19:36	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	19¢	$5	0xaaf1b8…
09-15 05:16:25	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x016427…
09-15 05:16:19	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,561	19¢	$297	0xe06024…
09-15 05:15:16	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,610	19¢	$306	0xd7a14e…
09-15 03:08:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	279	12¢	$33	0xa19ac3…
09-14 18:50:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	743	14¢	$104	0x2b93eb…
09-14 18:50:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	251	14¢	$35	0x621f9f…
09-14 18:46:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	63	14¢	$9	0x96353c…
09-14 18:46:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	14¢	$1	0x369ef8…
09-14 18:45:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc94777…
09-14 18:45:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x64eae4…
09-14 18:45:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	14¢	$0	0x0a7d92…
09-14 18:45:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0x01e361…
09-14 18:44:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,475	14¢	$1,747	0xf1798f…
09-14 18:29:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40,301	0¢	$121	0xd951bb…
09-14 16:15:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	39,261	0¢	$39	0xb1a398…
09-14 15:54:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6,000	0¢	$6	0xe2e5e4…
09-14 15:46:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,170	0¢	$10	0xc7db32…
09-14 15:39:13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,420	0¢	$1	0xc2e1b8…
09-14 15:25:52	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5c0b67…
09-14 15:15:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,880	0¢	$2	0xb3ec41…
09-14 15:15:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,100	0¢	$1	0xf4dcd1…
09-14 15:10:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x3fa368…
09-14 14:56:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$10	0xc2a0a5…
09-14 14:47:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x4abeed…
09-14 14:29:13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,717	0¢	$5	0x3f3500…
09-14 14:14:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf2b42a…
09-14 14:10:00	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x573fe0…
09-14 13:57:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,290	0¢	$1	0x2cddb3…
09-14 13:04:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,000	0¢	$4	0x4aea48…
09-14 12:43:52	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x08263a…
09-14 12:27:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x683feb…
09-14 11:16:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xe4fb9d…
09-14 11:00:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x55ec7c…
09-14 10:41:06	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5810cd…
09-14 09:57:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xee60b1…
09-14 09:40:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	30,000	0¢	$30	0xb8d902…
09-14 09:32:28	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	16,149	2¢	$258	0x03d990…
09-14 09:32:09	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	10,000	2¢	$159	0xd81094…
09-14 09:31:39	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	594	1¢	$8	0x90abc0…
09-14 09:30:57	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?	Yes	BUY	23,368	2¢	$491	0x7e5607…
09-14 09:30:40	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?	Yes	BUY	4,238	2¢	$84	0xcc2f8c…
09-14 09:30:06	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	76,069	0¢	$76	0x9c6eb9…
09-14 09:29:46	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	608	1¢	$9	0x8ad361…
09-14 08:19:39	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	2,885	1¢	$40	0xa42ec6…
09-14 05:04:22	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	115	1¢	$2	0x4bfa94…
09-11 13:44:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	548	20¢	$110	0x49d18a…
09-11 13:43:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15,000	20¢	$3,000	0xc7688d…
09-11 13:36:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	990	19¢	$188	0xdcc3cd…
09-11 13:35:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	180	19¢	$34	0xe3e3aa…
09-11 13:35:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,505	19¢	$286	0x0011b0…
09-11 13:34:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x339ace…
09-11 13:34:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xa6bbd4…
09-11 13:34:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	320	19¢	$61	0xc2accb…
09-11 13:32:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,800	19¢	$722	0x523107…