Twin-Ratio — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$283

Unrealized P&L

-$43

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

123

lifetime

Volume

$5.22K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

$409

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 07-04 15:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

65% 100% +$255

Politics

24% — —

Other

9% — —

Sports

2% 100% +$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-436	$-318	82¢	$-358	$-39	06-16 16:54
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	+100	$28	22¢	$22	$-7	06-17 21:09
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	+100	$14	18¢	$18	+$4	06-23 17:35
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	+63	$13	18¢	$12	$-2	06-17 10:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?	5	$1.1K	1,369	0	+1,369	open	—	03-05 07:42
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$620	500	500	+0	open	—	03-20 20:37
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$604	400	400	+0	open	—	03-20 20:37
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	21	$380	1,322	200	+1,122	open	—	04-21 15:04
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$318	0	436	-436	open	—	06-16 16:54
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$256	400	400	+0	open	—	03-19 13:59
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	7	$240	600	600	+0	open	—	03-27 09:48
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	4	$228	200	200	+0	open	—	03-21 02:41
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	1	$204	600	0	+600	open	—	03-27 08:38
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	2	$144	800	0	+800	open	—	04-08 11:23
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	5	$126	300	0	+300	open	—	03-16 19:15
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$123	898	550	+348	open	—	04-07 12:04
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?	5	$117	769	142	+627	open	—	04-13 00:48
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$77	1,411	0	+1,411	open	—	03-28 07:47
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?	2	$70	57	57	+0	open	—	06-18 13:42
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	2	$66	300	300	+0	open	—	03-20 20:42
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	3	$57	2,579	0	+2,579	open	—	03-27 09:57
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	13	$53	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	04-07 22:37
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?	7	$45	300	0	+300	No	+$255	03-17 17:48
mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	2	$33	398	0	+398	open	—	03-16 18:46
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$32	404	0	+404	open	—	06-17 11:03
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	3	$32	45	45	+0	open	—	03-20 23:07
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	1	$32	60	0	+60	Tampa Bay Rays	+$28	05-11 02:24
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	4	$30	200	0	+200	open	—	03-20 21:17
will bitcoin dip to 64k april 6 12	1	$29	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-09 15:15
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$28	100	0	+100	open	—	06-17 21:09
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 50 by April 30?	1	$26	50	0	+50	open	—	03-27 08:06
will the bitcoin volatility index hit 60 by july 31	4	$22	355	0	+355	open	—	07-04 15:11
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 40 by April 30?	1	$20	105	0	+105	open	—	03-27 08:07
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	1	$19	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-27 08:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 15:11:28	will the bitcoin volatility index hit 60 by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x47b0ff…
07-04 11:12:43	will the bitcoin volatility index hit 60 by july 31	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x01cc81…
07-04 06:10:44	will the bitcoin volatility index hit 70 by july 31	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x56bb6b…
07-04 06:10:25	will the bitcoin volatility index hit 60 by july 31	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x5f7deb…
07-04 06:10:07	will the bitcoin volatility index hit 55 by july 31	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x57d7a9…
07-04 06:08:32	will the bitcoin volatility index hit 60 by july 31	Yes	BUY	150	6¢	$9	0x36c966…
06-23 17:35:43	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xc781a9…
06-23 13:30:08	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	92	14¢	$13	0xc44dd5…
06-18 13:42:29	Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	57	76¢	$43	0x79d2a6…
06-17 21:09:38	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0xb2bc4b…
06-17 11:03:29	o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	404	8¢	$32	0x105ac3…
06-17 10:57:07	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	63	21¢	$13	0xe04df9…
06-16 16:54:04	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	136	73¢	$99	0x162f3a…
06-14 18:48:27	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	137	73¢	$100	0xef003f…
06-13 19:02:10	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	139	73¢	$101	0x450edd…
06-13 18:44:15	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	73¢	$17	0x1a1afd…
06-05 21:14:06	Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	57	47¢	$27	0x7afb09…
05-29 14:01:41	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	112	2¢	$2	0xe6d352…
05-13 05:35:13	Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 11-17?	Yes	BUY	160	1¢	$1	0xf43fdc…
05-11 02:24:12	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0xce0529…
04-21 15:04:00	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	14¢	$28	0xd1bec2…
04-18 15:56:48	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	900	0¢	$3	0x156ecb…
04-18 15:56:14	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	224	18¢	$40	0x49945e…
04-13 00:48:43	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?	Yes	SELL	72	42¢	$30	0xc18dcf…
04-09 15:15:13	will bitcoin dip to 64k april 6 12	Yes	BUY	1,000	3¢	$29	0x911584…
04-09 14:53:19	will bitcoin reach 78k april 6 12	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$18	0x9b7350…
04-08 11:23:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0x288b3e…
04-08 11:23:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	600	18¢	$108	0xb96622…
04-07 22:37:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	469	3¢	$16	0x3dbd02…
04-07 22:14:07	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x1ad5de…
04-07 12:23:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xd42124…
04-07 12:23:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xbf6af8…
04-07 12:23:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x810409…
04-07 12:23:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x70c6b0…
04-07 12:19:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x0ffd46…
04-07 12:19:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xe33e08…
04-07 12:19:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x89b910…
04-07 12:19:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x5ea647…
04-07 12:16:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	140	4¢	$5	0xc52876…
04-07 12:11:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	140	4¢	$5	0xe4b669…
04-07 12:11:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	91	3¢	$3	0xa39ef8…
04-07 12:08:25	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x588fa3…
04-07 12:05:23	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?	Yes	BUY	706	9¢	$63	0x2d2467…
04-07 12:04:11	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	SELL	550	11¢	$60	0x340890…
04-05 16:13:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	BUY	898	7¢	$63	0xfd4511…
04-01 06:44:53	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	92	32¢	$30	0xf82c51…
04-01 06:43:21	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	32¢	$17	0x68b6b5…
03-29 13:47:46	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	142	32¢	$46	0xb1d498…
03-29 13:08:26	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0x172217…
03-29 01:34:14	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x581cc6…
03-28 07:47:41	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	961	5¢	$48	0x397d1f…
03-27 09:57:33	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	259	1¢	$3	0xb2cda5…
03-27 09:48:25	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	58	23¢	$13	0x1991f9…
03-27 09:46:53	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x01255f…
03-27 09:40:47	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	22	23¢	$5	0x396260…
03-27 08:38:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	600	34¢	$204	0x93f786…
03-27 08:33:57	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$19	0xa65408…
03-27 08:33:37	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	450	7¢	$29	0x2ae2f3…
03-27 08:29:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0xaeca82…
03-27 08:26:11	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	1,717	1¢	$22	0xe599d5…
03-27 08:09:19	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xf0fd4d…
03-27 08:09:01	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0x9e73ef…
03-27 08:07:25	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 40 by April 30?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x5154b5…
03-27 08:07:01	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?	Yes	BUY	63	25¢	$16	0xc780f4…
03-27 08:06:47	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 50 by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xacb03a…
03-27 07:55:37	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	516	23¢	$119	0x6235d2…
03-25 08:48:29	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x1b200f…
03-25 07:15:15	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	24¢	$16	0x8b85e4…
03-25 05:57:07	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	129	24¢	$31	0x1edf96…
03-25 05:08:41	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0xdd8b14…
03-25 03:18:51	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x96e5d7…
03-25 03:18:37	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x8fbbb9…
03-25 03:17:39	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x9e71a6…
03-21 02:41:59	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	No	SELL	89	63¢	$56	0x36e2ec…
03-21 02:38:49	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	No	SELL	11	63¢	$7	0x4c425a…
03-20 23:33:19	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	28¢	$13	0xc681fa…
03-20 23:07:13	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	43	40¢	$17	0xadd376…
03-20 22:38:45	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	No	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0xc3a5fc…
03-20 22:05:19	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xcb6e28…
03-20 22:04:49	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xf7c724…
03-20 21:51:39	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x55a841…
03-20 21:41:49	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xe26b43…
03-20 21:17:37	will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	63	15¢	$9	0x150e84…
03-20 21:17:33	will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	44	15¢	$7	0xb97e91…
03-20 21:17:25	will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	44	15¢	$7	0xa809a0…
03-20 21:17:21	will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	49	15¢	$7	0x9e67ab…
03-20 21:04:41	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	28¢	$0	0xffad82…
03-20 20:51:01	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	602	5¢	$31	0xdd4856…
03-20 20:50:23	will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	740	1¢	$7	0xcd559b…
03-20 20:49:47	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	64	28¢	$18	0x3e95af…
03-20 20:49:47	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	75	28¢	$21	0x209e6d…
03-20 20:48:49	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	74	28¢	$21	0x13b406…
03-20 20:42:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	SELL	300	10¢	$30	0xfe61a9…
03-20 20:37:53	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	SELL	500	66¢	$330	0xef32f8…
03-20 20:37:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	400	82¢	$328	0x5a2b33…
03-19 13:59:47	EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	58	32¢	$18	0x366353…
03-19 13:55:43	EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	219	32¢	$70	0x63e86f…
03-19 13:42:35	EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	124	32¢	$40	0x84ce51…
03-17 17:48:19	Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	96	15¢	$14	0x2ccce3…
03-17 14:08:01	Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	47	15¢	$7	0xb26934…