Vibrant-Exterior — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$341

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

74.2%

Resolved

747

Trades

1,259

lifetime

Volume

$129.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$103

Open exposure

$602

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-27 02:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 247 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 55% -$304

Other

46% 54% +$78

Politics

3% 35% -$8

Pop-Culture

1% 33% +$0

Sports

1% 21% -$101

Tech

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	+413	$400	99¢	$408	+$8	10-27 02:06
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	+138	$120	98¢	$135	+$15	10-10 02:11
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	+43	$30	77¢	$33	+$3	10-27 02:06
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+27	$20	72¢	$20	$0	10-15 02:36
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+660	$26	0¢	$2	-$24	09-26 03:14
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+7	$2	26¢	$2	$0	10-15 02:36
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	+4	$2	28¢	$1	-$1	10-15 02:36
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+40	$1	2¢	$1	$0	10-05 10:32
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+7	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	05-04 10:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 76k march 9 15	6	$1.3K	707	705	+3	No	+$67	03-16 03:32
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 520 539	4	$1.3K	658	658	+0	No	+$14	01-13 06:58
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 40 64	25	$1.3K	893	838	+55	Yes	+$4	02-14 13:50
bitcoin above 72k on april 16	2	$1.2K	611	610	+1	Yes	+$10	04-16 16:19
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 14?	2	$1.2K	606	606	+0	No	+$6	06-14 16:29
solana above 70 on february 28	2	$1.2K	598	598	+0	Yes	+$7	02-28 17:16
bitcoin above 74k on april 19	2	$1.2K	610	608	+2	Yes	+$25	04-19 12:54
elon musk of tweets february 23 february 25 115 139	2	$1.2K	593	593	+0	No	+$11	02-25 12:51
will the price of solana be between 80 90 on march 2	2	$1.1K	605	605	+0	Yes	-$43	03-02 15:35
bitcoin above 74k on april 11	2	$1.1K	571	569	+2	No	+$19	04-11 15:02
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	3	$1.1K	815	307	+508	No	+$14	06-12 14:46
bitcoin above 70k on april 10	2	$1.1K	553	552	+1	Yes	+$6	04-10 14:25
elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 40 64	2	$1.1K	575	575	+0	Yes	-$31	03-02 16:30
elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 140 164	2	$1.0K	529	529	+0	No	+$4	03-09 11:15
bitcoin above 64k on april 3	2	$1.0K	524	523	+1	Yes	-$3	04-03 02:40
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 90 114	2	$1.0K	517	517	+0	No	+$6	03-25 12:31
bitcoin above 66k on june 18 2026	2	$1.0K	511	511	+0	No	+$6	06-18 12:46
elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 140 164	3	$993	529	527	+2	No	+$27	04-04 08:19
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 280 299	3	$989	527	527	+0	No	-$30	04-03 07:39
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$983	506	506	+0	No	+$2	04-01 04:50
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	4	$970	506	506	+0	No	+$9	03-31 08:26
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	2	$946	484	483	+1	No	+$2	04-14 03:05
cbb ill hou 2026 03 26	5	$920	1,000	1,000	+0	Illinois Fighting Illini	-$80	03-27 03:15
bitcoin above 68k on march 27	3	$898	734	522	+212	No	-$64	03-27 14:14
will bitcoin reach 73k on march 23	4	$893	515	511	+4	No	+$104	03-24 06:22
spx opens up or down on february 26 2026	5	$888	940	940	+0	Down	-$11	02-26 07:04
will bitcoin reach 72k on march 19	2	$887	445	445	+0	No	+$3	03-20 04:20
bitcoin above 64k on march 28	2	$852	430	430	+0	Yes	+$0	03-28 07:36
will kanye release bully by march 27	2	$837	427	427	+0	No	+$17	03-28 07:26
bitcoin above 80k on march 17	2	$824	416	416	+0	No	+$4	03-17 04:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 02:06:41	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	413	97¢	$400	0x023ba9…
10-27 02:06:27	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x78f779…
10-26 12:31:29	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	221	90¢	$200	0x773436…
10-26 10:48:17	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xe44ed1…
10-26 06:49:14	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xe983cb…
10-24 20:01:32	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Merab Dvalishvili	BUY	31	48¢	$15	0xc74719…
10-24 15:06:33	UFC 333: Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki (Featherweight, Early Prelims)	Bolaji Oki	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xaf1151…
10-24 02:31:08	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x84750d…
10-23 02:06:30	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	320	94¢	$300	0x909433…
10-21 02:33:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x5ed262…
10-20 02:03:32	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	317	95¢	$300	0x9b233c…
10-19 11:43:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x5aae83…
10-19 07:58:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	54	18¢	$10	0xfde552…
10-19 02:18:11	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0xef7750…
10-18 12:06:24	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xbb5018…
10-18 08:45:56	Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 60 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x282ff6…
10-17 15:29:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	84¢	$12	0x97b8c0…
10-17 02:40:47	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xed1786…
10-17 02:36:17	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	226	93¢	$211	0x89f854…
10-16 02:31:36	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	283	85¢	$240	0x3fffa5…
10-15 02:36:58	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x2ada55…
10-15 02:36:31	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xe32f1a…
10-15 02:36:07	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x27d5c8…
10-15 02:20:59	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x62691e…
10-14 10:59:25	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xac11f3…
10-14 08:54:07	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xcb8690…
10-14 06:42:38	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	SELL	147	6¢	$9	0xb5a93b…
10-14 06:36:23	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	634	95¢	$600	0xd46d0d…
10-14 02:17:29	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xd582ce…
10-13 13:07:46	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xb64d6a…
10-13 06:33:04	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x053425…
10-13 03:54:15	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xcbeb50…
10-13 02:10:32	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xd5ea8f…
10-13 02:10:21	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	169	89¢	$150	0x2bbddd…
10-12 02:28:12	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x286d33…
10-10 07:34:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	3¢	$2	0xe20271…
10-10 07:33:13	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xedcee6…
10-10 07:32:51	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	3¢	$1	0xd8350a…
10-10 07:32:31	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x18e9e2…
10-10 03:56:28	Will FC Barcelona vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa2b779…
10-10 03:25:02	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xc0cfea…
10-10 03:24:51	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x9d97dc…
10-10 02:12:15	Will Getafe CF win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xd8c089…
10-10 02:11:00	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	92¢	$100	0x4e4bf9…
10-09 12:23:45	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	SELL	323	100¢	$322	0x374e4a…
10-09 08:01:18	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x2674be…
10-09 08:00:52	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	SELL	60	96¢	$58	0x3302be…
10-09 03:39:02	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xd15ebd…
10-09 02:12:09	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x193bff…
10-09 02:10:03	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	323	93¢	$300	0xfd7d39…
10-08 15:40:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xd75c0d…
10-08 15:39:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 8?	No	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x5ee39a…
10-07 15:03:07	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	150	93¢	$140	0xc9ca24…
10-07 06:47:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	93¢	$17	0xbd232c…
10-07 05:18:26	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x724659…
10-07 05:16:51	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xc6b54e…
10-06 02:33:42	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?	No	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x28fd6f…
10-06 02:33:33	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 15?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x27c3e0…
10-06 02:21:48	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	255	94¢	$240	0x62ed29…
10-05 10:32:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x6cf0fe…
10-05 10:31:41	Will Türkiye win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xdc449c…
10-05 01:32:23	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xf3e1bd…
10-04 02:14:53	UFC 332: Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)	Wang Cong	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x4db080…
10-04 01:19:22	UFC 332: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Deiveson Figueiredo	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x0f3f30…
10-04 01:17:35	UFC 332: King Green vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Main Card)	King Green	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x85d891…
10-03 06:27:53	bitcoin above 84k on october 3 2026	No	BUY	42	7¢	$3	0x6f1eb1…
10-02 02:33:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0xdbcf98…
10-02 02:29:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0x93668e…
09-30 07:57:42	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x9fe720…
09-29 02:06:02	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0xed9995…
09-28 02:09:20	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x57923a…
09-26 03:16:20	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x6d9594…
09-26 03:15:44	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	No	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0x5e7cc2…
09-26 03:15:30	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x9ee91f…
09-26 03:14:36	Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xe326c6…
09-25 11:32:57	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x750de2…
09-25 11:25:57	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0x11293b…
09-25 01:49:38	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0x2fadba…
09-23 02:00:35	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x3534ea…
09-22 02:03:51	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	315	95¢	$300	0x5b0131…
09-21 14:51:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on September 21?	Yes	SELL	72	43¢	$31	0xd730f8…
09-21 08:58:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on September 21?	Yes	BUY	72	36¢	$26	0x56fc6d…
09-21 08:58:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on September 21?	Yes	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0xf0c376…
09-21 02:27:11	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	322	93¢	$300	0xae8108…
09-19 10:47:16	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	108	92¢	$100	0x23568c…
09-19 06:47:30	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x83f63d…
09-19 06:46:45	UFC 331: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf (Heavyweight, Prelims)	Sean Sharaf	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x30dfb3…
09-19 02:51:46	UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	Mauricio Ruffy	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x3b438f…
09-19 02:47:03	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x9d715a…
09-19 02:34:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 19?	No	BUY	121	82¢	$100	0x5cba39…
09-19 02:18:04	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x375b37…
09-19 02:17:57	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x9cdfe7…
09-19 02:16:40	trump x greenland deal signed by september 25	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xf7234d…
09-18 14:47:21	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	SELL	197	1¢	$2	0x8152fc…
09-18 03:25:30	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	197	76¢	$150	0x7b48e3…
09-15 13:56:28	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	421	95¢	$400	0x6ededb…
09-13 14:25:40	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x08545c…
09-13 14:24:40	Phil Foden: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x724df0…
09-13 14:24:00	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 1 Manchester City FC?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x5220f3…
09-11 18:17:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xbed78c…