Old-Fashioned-Silica — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

14.2%

Resolved

Trades

148

lifetime

Volume

$2.72K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 06-12 23:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

51% 0% —

Politics

42% — —

Sports

7% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	11	$293	279	279	+0	open	—	06-07 13:25
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	9	$253	129	129	+0	open	—	04-25 14:10
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	10	$252	202	202	+0	open	—	06-10 07:32
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$169	176	176	+0	open	—	04-23 22:23
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	8	$104	221	221	+0	open	—	04-21 06:02
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	11	$97	236	236	+0	open	—	05-25 01:10
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$95	125	125	+0	open	—	04-21 21:04
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$92	47	47	+0	open	—	04-09 02:57
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	2	$92	48	48	+0	open	—	04-14 18:49
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	8	$91	134	134	+0	open	—	04-26 20:56
Netanyahu out by June 30?	2	$91	46	46	+0	open	—	06-12 12:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$89	46	46	+0	open	—	04-17 16:40
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$87	45	45	+0	open	—	05-16 23:03
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	4	$82	54	54	+0	open	—	06-10 11:25
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$81	43	43	+0	Yes	+$0	04-22 15:13
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$81	41	41	+0	No	+$0	04-22 08:29
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$81	43	43	+0	open	—	06-09 08:45
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	6	$74	133	133	+0	open	—	06-06 03:02
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	3	$71	36	36	+0	open	—	05-28 03:05
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$70	66	66	+0	open	—	05-30 01:07
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$70	72	72	+0	open	—	05-20 04:07
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$70	45	45	+0	open	—	05-31 16:13
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	3	$66	87	87	+0	open	—	06-07 03:51
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	2	$33	87	87	+0	open	—	06-05 20:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$33	38	38	+0	open	—	05-31 07:18
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	7	$27	132	132	+0	No	+$0	04-24 02:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	3	$19	80	80	+0	open	—	05-26 06:52
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$16	89	89	+0	open	—	05-24 00:16
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$12	40	40	+0	open	—	05-26 02:06
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	6	$7	130	130	+0	open	—	06-11 04:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 01:29:00	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	6¢	$3	0x33bbdf…
06-12 23:24:06	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	6¢	$3	0xba747c…
06-12 12:19:37	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0x251656…
06-12 12:18:48	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x0f10dd…
06-11 04:04:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	46	3¢	$1	0xa847b5…
06-11 04:04:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0xa4a757…
06-11 04:04:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0x68d5d5…
06-11 04:04:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0x0b3171…
06-11 04:04:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0x047317…
06-11 04:02:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	130	3¢	$4	0xa000ce…
06-10 11:25:48	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	SELL	9	76¢	$7	0xdd2073…
06-10 11:25:00	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	SELL	45	76¢	$34	0xbac9bb…
06-10 10:03:15	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x0ab1c0…
06-10 10:02:36	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	46	76¢	$35	0xd3b0bc…
06-10 07:32:43	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	42	98¢	$41	0x576e2f…
06-10 03:01:45	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0xc4bf9d…
06-09 20:24:51	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	4¢	$3	0x0887b8…
06-09 19:09:57	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	4¢	$3	0x563348…
06-09 08:45:22	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	43	94¢	$40	0xa0ca17…
06-09 04:36:15	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0x5b21fa…
06-07 13:25:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x6a37d8…
06-07 13:25:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	52	69¢	$36	0x243578…
06-07 07:55:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	57	69¢	$39	0x272f3d…
06-07 03:51:24	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	37	39¢	$14	0xef3a75…
06-07 03:51:24	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	39¢	$20	0xb36182…
06-07 02:44:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	87	37¢	$32	0x0a10e4…
06-06 03:02:58	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0xfbee11…
06-06 03:02:58	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	77	28¢	$22	0xd9724a…
06-06 01:16:12	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0xb3bfc1…
06-06 01:16:12	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x372512…
06-05 20:25:21	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	87	19¢	$17	0x1e0685…
06-05 19:08:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	87	19¢	$17	0x872893…
06-05 17:48:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	33	66¢	$22	0x38ac76…
06-05 04:11:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	33	66¢	$22	0xd0b681…
06-04 00:33:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0xaf2156…
06-03 22:43:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x6beb1a…
06-03 22:35:31	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0x5cac48…
06-03 20:12:40	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x45a8a9…
06-02 23:02:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	64	62¢	$40	0x4a955f…
06-01 13:12:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	64	54¢	$35	0xae20e2…
06-01 08:50:02	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x8e79b5…
05-31 16:13:57	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	23	76¢	$18	0x7aa096…
05-31 13:49:05	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	22	78¢	$17	0x8b0681…
05-31 08:59:28	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	45	77¢	$35	0x70f493…
05-31 07:18:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	43¢	$13	0x611382…
05-31 07:18:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	43¢	$3	0x4c4059…
05-31 05:47:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	43¢	$10	0x4a84c6…
05-31 05:47:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0xb82bb8…
05-30 22:13:18	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0x6c2bdc…
05-30 22:13:18	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0x2c1c25…
05-30 18:59:49	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	75	3¢	$2	0x01fc2f…
05-30 04:01:32	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	38	4¢	$2	0x1a2acc…
05-30 02:58:41	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	38	4¢	$2	0xb7b7b4…
05-30 01:07:44	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x19fb8c…
05-30 01:07:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	56	52¢	$29	0xc7a6a8…
05-29 20:31:03	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	62	54¢	$33	0xf5d271…
05-29 20:31:03	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xf091e5…
05-29 20:28:45	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$40	0xea58e5…
05-29 18:13:53	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0xea7cee…
05-29 10:33:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	75	42¢	$32	0x2d253d…
05-29 08:59:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	75	42¢	$32	0x348642…
05-29 04:58:29	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	28¢	$13	0x5780cf…
05-29 02:33:35	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	28¢	$13	0xbf7f7a…
05-28 03:05:14	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x9c16a4…
05-28 03:05:14	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x6a5b94…
05-27 23:21:37	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x10a30f…
05-26 06:52:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	12¢	$10	0xaf8002…
05-26 05:48:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0xdd79fe…
05-26 05:48:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	12¢	$5	0x21e8ea…
05-26 02:06:18	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	40	15¢	$6	0xf07075…
05-25 23:51:42	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xc2f697…
05-25 23:51:42	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	16¢	$4	0x0e51a5…
05-25 01:10:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	91	3¢	$3	0xafbebe…
05-24 23:15:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0xf11df6…
05-24 23:15:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	84	4¢	$3	0x79e441…
05-24 18:36:11	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x0786e9…
05-24 17:27:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x385ba0…
05-24 17:27:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x1f9a67…
05-24 12:24:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	75	8¢	$6	0xe53b0e…
05-24 10:27:44	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	75	7¢	$5	0xafe0ab…
05-24 00:16:59	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	89	8¢	$7	0x89c406…
05-23 21:45:16	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	89	10¢	$9	0x47f609…
05-20 04:07:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	30	49¢	$15	0xd9108d…
05-20 04:07:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	42	49¢	$21	0x537f52…
05-20 02:11:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	72	48¢	$35	0x42eaa1…
05-16 23:03:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0xfbdc5d…
05-16 00:24:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0xf6f11d…
05-15 08:10:11	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xeb2d92…
05-15 08:10:09	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0x997ac5…
05-15 06:06:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x4058db…
04-26 20:56:02	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0xa2bacc…
04-26 20:56:02	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	41	2¢	$1	0x958b20…
04-26 20:55:52	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	26	2¢	$0	0x5d4374…
04-26 19:06:58	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0x86a1bb…
04-26 19:06:58	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$0	0x67253d…
04-26 19:06:58	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x51a45a…
04-25 20:54:14	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	45	99¢	$44	0xc80692…
04-25 18:33:22	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0xbc3f97…
04-25 14:10:24	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xa5871f…
04-25 12:51:34	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0x31063a…