Crafty-Ordination — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.33K

Unrealized P&L

-$202

Hit rate

46.3%

Resolved

1,616

Trades

32,688

lifetime

Volume

$111.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-03

last 08-20 06:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 124 days

Categories

Other

97% 28% -$3,496

Politics

2% 39% +$260

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% 30% -$94

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 128 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes		+0	$202	0¢	$0	-$202	08-20 06:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026?	421	$3.8K	4,671	4,671	+0	No	-$175	06-01 04:35
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	94	$3.4K	25,326	25,326	+0	No	+$238	05-11 17:49
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	201	$3.0K	57,497	65,840	-8,343	No	-$102	05-14 18:37
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	193	$2.8K	2,652	2,652	+0	Yes	+$200	06-12 16:00
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	365	$2.2K	3,178	3,177	+1	Yes	+$334	05-29 14:46
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	600	$2.0K	3,495	3,494	+1	Yes	+$57	06-02 15:43
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	285	$2.0K	2,956	2,721	+235	Yes	+$34	06-09 15:36
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	429	$1.7K	16,989	16,047	+942	No	+$24	04-23 17:25
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	324	$1.6K	2,069	1,984	+85	No	-$279	05-09 15:56
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	40	$1.4K	913	913	+0	Yes	+$358	06-06 15:15
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026?	321	$1.4K	2,095	2,095	+0	No	-$4	06-29 21:39
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	241	$1.4K	3,497	3,490	+6	Yes	+$163	05-08 10:42
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	370	$1.3K	4,307	1,907	+2,400	No	-$126	05-13 04:43
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	387	$1.3K	2,252	2,236	+16	Yes	+$45	05-19 15:44
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 160 179	336	$1.2K	66,532	78,102	-11,570	No	+$19	04-23 00:52
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	300	$1.2K	1,438	1,254	+184	No	-$28	05-14 19:29
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	145	$1.2K	3,607	3,607	+0	No	+$57	05-07 01:50
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	214	$1.2K	1,878	1,348	+531	Yes	+$235	06-05 14:34
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	200	$1.2K	8,380	7,748	+632	Yes	+$693	04-30 16:37
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	522	$1.2K	4,400	4,400	+0	No	+$38	05-14 02:39
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	241	$1.1K	1,123	1,122	+0	No	-$51	05-31 21:17
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	288	$1.1K	1,617	1,617	+0	Yes	+$50	05-12 14:24
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	137	$1.0K	3,503	3,681	-178	No	+$15	04-29 08:29
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	150	$1.0K	3,108	3,108	+0	No	-$228	06-14 22:06
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	340	$976	1,808	1,773	+35	No	-$212	05-12 14:46
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	189	$960	3,519	3,452	+67	No	+$48	05-08 01:15
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	280	$921	1,828	1,516	+312	No	-$321	06-30 15:59
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 65 89	31	$879	632	604	+28	Yes	+$67	04-08 14:01
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	166	$871	1,151	1,151	+0	No	-$47	07-01 15:50
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	91	$870	561	560	+1	Yes	+$83	05-30 14:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-20 06:56:33	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	58	1¢	$1	0x77e392…
08-20 06:56:10	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	93	1¢	$1	0x532de6…
08-20 05:08:58	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x816686…
08-19 19:28:39	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	121	1¢	$1	0x1b72d9…
08-18 13:50:40	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	937	1¢	$8	0xacc69a…
08-17 15:42:42	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,111	1¢	$10	0x6b8159…
08-17 14:10:01	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	111	1¢	$1	0x9af583…
08-17 14:05:45	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$7	0x02bf55…
08-16 23:14:18	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?	Yes	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xb51232…
08-16 22:57:18	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xe63a16…
08-16 21:41:04	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	28	8¢	$2	0x019474…
08-16 21:40:39	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x8547f6…
08-16 21:40:27	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x6e8f4a…
08-16 21:39:45	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x12457f…
08-16 20:03:45	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0xa8cd62…
08-16 16:13:54	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 16?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0xd04e2b…
08-16 16:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 17?	Yes	SELL	7	22¢	$2	0x0eb26d…
08-16 15:54:42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 17?	Yes	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0xc06de2…
08-16 15:26:22	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x2e2809…
08-16 14:51:03	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 17?	Yes	SELL	9	26¢	$2	0x4e8db7…
08-16 11:31:46	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?	Yes	SELL	6	61¢	$4	0x348b13…
08-16 11:30:01	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 17?	Yes	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x4ff5b2…
08-16 11:14:07	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xfd7d25…
08-16 11:02:48	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x8700dd…
08-16 10:31:30	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 17?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xe42b13…
08-16 09:23:48	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 17?	Yes	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x23e24d…
08-16 09:09:13	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x81a0fd…
08-16 09:02:34	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,664	1¢	$18	0xcbe420…
08-16 08:53:16	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xfd21da…
08-16 05:48:13	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 17?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xa55f81…
08-16 05:41:48	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 17?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xf720cf…
08-16 05:24:13	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 17?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x15413b…
08-15 20:53:33	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x6a638d…
08-15 19:55:03	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xc63127…
08-15 19:53:58	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x60f5c5…
08-15 19:51:01	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x2954ba…
08-15 19:38:57	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x5039d6…
08-15 19:38:55	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9aebca…
08-15 19:35:06	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x12ba7c…
08-15 14:47:49	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	1	45¢	$0	0xf99017…
08-15 14:47:49	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0xa9a004…
08-15 14:34:33	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0xe43e07…
08-15 14:00:58	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x6bf5f0…
08-15 13:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	4	11¢	$0	0xdfbfdb…
08-15 13:00:37	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0xdab9c3…
08-15 13:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xd080d7…
08-15 12:44:01	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0xfccc97…
08-15 11:14:54	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	13¢	$0	0xde8674…
08-15 10:53:31	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x96b2e4…
08-15 10:15:33	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	13¢	$0	0xaa868f…
08-15 09:08:36	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x2a703a…
08-15 09:00:46	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x544511…
08-15 08:49:51	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xc5c715…
08-15 08:39:34	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x1e1470…
08-15 08:39:33	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x2b602f…
08-15 08:37:00	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0x3edd5c…
08-15 08:37:00	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x29b8a0…
08-15 08:28:37	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x814e42…
08-15 05:12:52	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x4b6a46…
08-15 05:11:49	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x099876…
08-15 05:11:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xed7d45…
08-15 04:48:45	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0xefc661…
08-15 04:06:34	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	7	37¢	$3	0xaf54cc…
08-15 04:03:00	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x77a1ae…
08-15 03:57:28	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0xf55735…
08-15 01:51:51	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xe628e6…
08-15 01:32:30	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0xacee06…
08-15 00:53:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0x08bfa0…
08-15 00:53:34	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x2f71d1…
08-15 00:53:27	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x16ffd7…
08-15 00:53:25	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	1	37¢	$0	0xf4f311…
08-15 00:53:25	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0x949188…
08-15 00:30:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?	Yes	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x2d655d…
08-14 23:45:21	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x818832…
08-14 23:33:18	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x8ae3ed…
08-14 22:55:12	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xbb81a0…
08-14 22:20:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xb487e9…
08-14 22:03:27	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x3ade88…
08-14 21:47:24	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xc242ab…
08-14 21:40:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa007a2…
08-14 21:18:27	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xe95654…
08-14 20:52:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x2e1eb0…
08-14 20:34:01	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0xb396f7…
08-14 20:33:33	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xf91f86…
08-14 20:29:42	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x09b304…
08-14 20:28:25	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xd043fe…
08-14 20:24:31	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x500af0…
08-14 19:51:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0x7230f2…
08-14 19:49:03	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0xff02da…
08-14 19:31:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	8	87¢	$7	0x1a59dc…
08-14 19:30:34	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xa79d7f…
08-14 19:17:12	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x9cb234…
08-14 19:07:10	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	7	56¢	$4	0x2d8285…
08-14 18:28:52	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x3b0cfe…
08-14 18:18:19	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x5be613…
08-14 18:01:13	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x392475…
08-14 17:10:10	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xa26ebc…
08-14 17:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x0ad5a9…
08-14 16:55:51	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0x80f132…
08-14 16:40:31	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x92b994…