Natural-Calculation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

-$27

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

Trades

2,066

lifetime

Volume

$150.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$73

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 06-27 15:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

61% 67% +$5

Other

33% 75% +$2

Sports

3% 100% +$13

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 95 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No		-0	$-0	93¢	$-0	+$0	06-24 03:33
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes		+0	$27	55¢	$0	$-27	06-23 03:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	171	$23.9K	12,875	12,376	+498	open	—	04-01 04:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	142	$12.4K	7,841	7,345	+496	open	—	05-10 15:34
Trump out as President by April 30?	161	$7.5K	4,145	3,532	+613	open	—	04-22 08:47
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	65	$7.5K	4,484	4,329	+154	open	—	05-29 00:20
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	58	$6.0K	3,562	3,066	+497	open	—	05-14 16:07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	63	$5.4K	3,915	3,918	-3	open	—	04-28 18:08
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	61	$4.7K	2,920	2,661	+259	open	—	06-01 02:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	45	$4.5K	3,600	3,619	-19	open	—	05-26 22:57
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	47	$4.2K	2,600	2,370	+230	open	—	05-17 06:47
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	32	$2.6K	2,093	1,645	+448	open	—	05-26 03:30
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	25	$2.5K	1,966	2,127	-161	open	—	05-16 23:24
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?	18	$2.3K	1,190	1,172	+18	open	—	05-01 20:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$2.2K	1,110	1,110	+0	open	—	03-28 22:03
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	14	$2.1K	1,069	1,069	+0	open	—	03-29 11:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	34	$2.1K	2,400	2,600	-200	open	—	05-31 20:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	16	$2.0K	1,786	986	+800	open	—	05-09 13:36
miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	6	$1.8K	920	920	+0	open	—	03-28 21:07
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	12	$1.8K	1,421	1,221	+200	open	—	05-02 01:05
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	21	$1.5K	834	974	-140	open	—	04-22 05:04
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	12	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-22 23:42
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	29	$1.3K	1,610	1,810	-200	open	—	04-16 21:13
spy up or down on june 3 2026	13	$1.2K	716	526	+190	open	—	06-03 19:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	11	$1.2K	818	818	+0	open	—	04-23 00:16
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	16	$1.2K	720	520	+200	open	—	04-29 22:19
nba por sas 2026 04 19	33	$1.2K	815	405	+410	open	—	04-20 03:33
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	8	$1.2K	800	1,200	-400	open	—	04-12 18:44
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	25	$1.2K	650	650	+0	open	—	04-26 20:16
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	5	$1.2K	667	667	+0	open	—	04-14 02:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	14	$1.2K	839	539	+300	open	—	05-01 13:45
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	9	$1.2K	691	491	+200	open	—	03-29 05:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 15:42:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	400	100¢	$400	0x267092…
06-24 03:33:43	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	31	93¢	$29	0x1b4867…
06-23 03:13:50	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	179	58¢	$104	0xeb873d…
06-23 03:07:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	58¢	$5	0x7933f4…
06-23 02:46:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x8faf6e…
06-23 00:07:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	58¢	$50	0xcf626b…
06-23 00:04:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	58¢	$23	0x059645…
06-22 23:26:28	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	58¢	$30	0xcc3150…
06-22 23:09:56	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	247	58¢	$143	0x79364c…
06-22 21:21:22	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x6dd3e5…
06-22 14:17:19	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x6647b3…
06-22 14:09:41	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x89cd66…
06-22 13:49:34	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xfec6fc…
06-22 13:33:29	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x6c37a1…
06-22 13:12:31	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xe41f50…
06-22 12:11:19	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb5e5aa…
06-22 12:10:23	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x341351…
06-22 11:51:59	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x7b3990…
06-22 11:22:14	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x605db8…
06-22 11:21:04	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	17	93¢	$16	0x2056d7…
06-21 07:01:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	62¢	$84	0x30b3aa…
06-21 07:00:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0x184ee7…
06-21 04:12:44	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	62¢	$35	0xc8198a…
06-20 16:57:20	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$195	0x7024eb…
06-20 15:21:28	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x9c127f…
06-20 15:10:05	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x243dba…
06-20 14:55:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x5058ab…
06-20 14:20:23	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	66¢	$10	0x50dc74…
06-20 12:12:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	66¢	$47	0x18ca6f…
06-20 09:50:41	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x96f5c5…
06-20 04:58:31	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xaef270…
06-20 03:44:56	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0x8fee6f…
06-20 03:36:07	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa74365…
06-20 03:16:49	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$6	0x09657b…
06-20 02:45:43	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x01896a…
06-20 01:43:11	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x60492d…
06-20 01:41:34	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x3c86bb…
06-20 01:16:26	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x500f27…
06-19 21:23:47	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x9175fb…
06-19 20:45:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x12fa99…
06-19 18:53:31	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x7ad16a…
06-19 17:51:26	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x23aba9…
06-19 14:32:56	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	124	35¢	$43	0x746beb…
06-19 14:10:52	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	42	35¢	$15	0x026b2a…
06-19 14:04:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x3b8d86…
06-19 14:04:26	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x953e4b…
06-19 13:59:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	14	35¢	$5	0x926882…
06-19 13:57:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x40ae28…
06-19 00:43:02	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x0b9669…
06-18 20:53:11	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x514d53…
06-18 20:51:22	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0xaaa7b7…
06-18 20:38:29	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x1b6f6b…
06-18 20:25:08	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x5f4299…
06-18 20:24:17	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xddaa76…
06-18 20:17:53	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x3ac85a…
06-18 16:55:11	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xc48603…
06-17 04:56:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	48	24¢	$12	0x034c6b…
06-17 04:56:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	81	25¢	$20	0xed5f61…
06-17 04:46:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0xa5489f…
06-17 04:12:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0xeb1785…
06-17 04:12:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	23	27¢	$6	0xccb038…
06-17 04:12:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xac59d8…
06-17 04:07:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	37	27¢	$10	0x98e01b…
06-17 03:39:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x7c5d7e…
06-17 01:39:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	SELL	11	64¢	$7	0xeed95e…
06-17 01:26:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	SELL	89	64¢	$57	0x34c5a4…
06-16 22:10:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	15	62¢	$10	0xb9c1b7…
06-16 22:10:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	85	62¢	$52	0x39832b…
06-16 04:01:00	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xeed90c…
06-16 03:43:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0xba788c…
06-16 03:42:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x0051fd…
06-16 03:26:36	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x8b444f…
06-07 12:32:31	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xa00933…
06-06 14:56:58	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	52	99¢	$52	0x82a4d8…
06-05 18:56:25	spy up or down on june 5 2026	Up	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x50208f…
06-05 18:50:39	spy up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x5be9f5…
06-05 18:11:06	spx up or down on june 5 2026	Up	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0xd10f7b…
06-05 18:00:49	spx up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x94d3a7…
06-05 18:00:31	spx up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x742214…
06-03 19:52:34	spy up or down on june 3 2026	Down	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xadc380…
06-03 19:45:51	spy up or down on june 3 2026	Down	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd2fa72…
06-03 19:45:45	spy up or down on june 3 2026	Down	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x89eb67…
06-03 19:40:36	spy up or down on june 3 2026	Down	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x820f75…
06-03 19:39:57	spy up or down on june 3 2026	Down	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x8514c0…
06-03 19:39:55	spy up or down on june 3 2026	Down	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x6fbfbb…
06-03 18:39:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x5428d8…
06-03 17:26:36	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x74aa09…
06-03 16:59:21	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x604b46…
06-03 16:59:01	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x6cac5f…
06-03 16:58:28	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0xd141fc…
06-03 16:47:43	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xde7b51…
06-03 16:45:15	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x25f7f9…
06-01 02:07:47	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	SELL	201	100¢	$200	0xe4ac62…
05-31 23:13:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0xe916b8…
05-31 23:13:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$3	0x9b069a…
05-31 23:12:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xff8512…
05-31 22:38:01	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xe9c4ed…
05-31 22:26:28	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	77	1¢	$1	0x9d495f…
05-31 22:25:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	123	1¢	$1	0x431c4f…
05-31 22:23:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xe0a126…