Natural-Calculation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.1K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.9%

Resolved

411

Trades

4,323

lifetime

Volume

$259.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 09-01 01:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 107 days

Categories

Other

55% 84% -$299

Politics

37% 78% +$304

Sports

5% 82% -$9,821

Crypto

2% 67% -$13

Tech

1% 67% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$263

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	171	$23.9K	12,875	12,376	+498	No	+$71	04-01 04:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	145	$12.7K	7,842	7,661	+180	No	+$63	05-10 15:34
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	68	$8.0K	4,527	4,727	-200	No	+$71	05-29 00:20
Trump out as President by April 30?	161	$7.5K	4,145	3,532	+613	No	+$21	04-22 08:47
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	58	$6.0K	3,562	3,066	+497	No	+$35	05-14 16:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	56	$5.7K	4,400	4,200	+200	No	+$88	05-26 22:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	63	$5.4K	3,915	3,918	-3	No	+$21	04-28 18:08
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	70	$5.0K	3,320	3,516	-196	No	-$7	06-01 02:07
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	49	$4.4K	2,800	2,770	+30	No	-$77	05-17 06:47
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	48	$3.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	06-24 03:33
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	35	$3.3K	1,700	1,700	+0	No	+$7	05-07 03:46
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	35	$3.0K	2,093	2,200	-107	No	-$3	05-26 03:30
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 11?	99	$2.9K	1,926	1,385	+542	No	-$209	07-11 15:29
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	25	$2.5K	1,966	2,127	-161	No	-$85	05-16 23:24
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on August 13?	2	$2.4K	2,450	0	+2,450	No	+$3	08-13 23:03
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?	18	$2.3K	1,190	1,172	+18	Up	+$9	05-01 20:08
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 27?	30	$2.3K	2,441	0	+2,441	No	+$165	06-27 03:20
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	86	$2.2K	1,100	13,533	-12,433	Yes	-$10,593	06-23 06:30
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$2.2K	1,110	1,110	+0	No	+$3	03-28 22:03
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	14	$2.1K	1,069	1,069	+0	No	$0	03-29 11:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	34	$2.1K	2,400	2,600	-200	No	+$82	05-31 20:23
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 4?	9	$2.1K	1,933	268	+1,665	Yes	+$39	08-04 23:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	16	$2.0K	1,786	986	+800	No	+$206	05-09 13:36
miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	6	$1.8K	920	920	+0	No	+$5	03-28 21:07
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	12	$1.8K	1,421	1,221	+200	No	-$2	05-02 01:05
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 20?	84	$1.8K	1,367	918	+449	No	-$80	06-20 20:53
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 31?	2	$1.7K	1,670	0	+1,670	No	+$2	07-31 23:42
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 12?	1	$1.7K	1,664	0	+1,664	No	+$2	08-12 23:14
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 16?	3	$1.6K	1,591	0	+1,591	No	+$2	08-16 22:37
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	26	$1.6K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$5	05-23 18:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-01 01:08:43	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	194	6¢	$12	0x77ac23…
09-01 01:08:36	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	552	10¢	$57	0x581387…
08-26 14:17:30	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on August 26?	No	BUY	490	100¢	$490	0xda552b…
08-25 14:33:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on August 25?	No	BUY	505	100¢	$504	0xe151f6…
08-16 22:48:18	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 16?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0x96d2b5…
08-16 22:38:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 16?	No	BUY	130	99¢	$128	0x7d77c1…
08-16 22:38:33	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	140	99¢	$138	0xa570bd…
08-16 22:37:24	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 16?	No	BUY	1,083	100¢	$1,081	0x6c4331…
08-16 22:16:07	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xeacfac…
08-16 22:14:36	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 16?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2fc45e…
08-16 22:14:16	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 16?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcacdd0…
08-16 21:58:49	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 16?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x533e9e…
08-16 21:58:34	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 16?	No	BUY	503	100¢	$502	0x410471…
08-16 21:55:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 16?	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0xb88bfc…
08-16 21:53:55	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 16?	No	BUY	325	100¢	$325	0x8c888b…
08-16 21:53:34	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf391b5…
08-16 21:53:34	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	421	100¢	$421	0x1513b5…
08-16 21:52:30	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$21	0xf1795b…
08-16 21:52:30	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 16?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x472480…
08-16 21:40:39	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	93	84¢	$78	0x5baabb…
08-16 21:34:21	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 16?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0xe91698…
08-16 21:34:13	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 16?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0xc39b99…
08-16 21:33:40	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 16?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x1d3b63…
08-16 19:35:09	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on August 16?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x10562a…
08-16 19:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 16?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xdeabfd…
08-16 19:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 16?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3f9338…
08-16 19:25:36	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 16?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd3c4b3…
08-16 17:46:10	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 16?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$17	0x94d76e…
08-16 17:16:07	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 16?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7327d0…
08-16 17:04:37	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 16?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x22faff…
08-16 17:04:19	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 16?	No	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0x14d881…
08-16 17:04:16	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 16?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x4e760b…
08-16 17:03:31	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 16?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xdfcc10…
08-16 17:00:15	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 16?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1ee40a…
08-16 17:00:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 16?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$21	0xcbe018…
08-16 16:57:42	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 16?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xe003ba…
08-16 16:55:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 16?	No	BUY	74	99¢	$74	0xf2bc8b…
08-16 16:48:58	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on August 16?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xabed17…
08-16 16:46:51	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 16?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa029b8…
08-16 16:46:19	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 16?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6a1cb2…
08-15 22:55:28	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xa97141…
08-15 22:55:18	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x0edfdf…
08-15 22:55:12	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x5da2de…
08-15 22:55:10	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 15?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x5239cf…
08-15 22:52:52	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 15?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x1cdb5a…
08-15 22:51:58	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 15?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x5a6760…
08-15 22:51:03	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 15?	No	BUY	257	100¢	$256	0xd62a9d…
08-15 22:48:52	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 15?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xb80de4…
08-15 22:48:40	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 15?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x37c2ca…
08-15 22:46:36	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 15?	No	BUY	160	98¢	$156	0x3dfc67…
08-15 22:46:01	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 15?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xb39588…
08-15 22:44:34	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x566e06…
08-15 22:44:22	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	61	97¢	$59	0xb2a99b…
08-15 22:43:25	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 15?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xafda28…
08-15 22:41:03	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 15?	No	BUY	511	100¢	$510	0x80335d…
08-15 22:40:52	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 15?	No	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0x50fc0d…
08-15 22:40:03	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 15?	No	BUY	213	99¢	$210	0x4a5288…
08-15 22:39:19	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x51cd98…
08-13 23:03:06	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on August 13?	No	BUY	1,350	100¢	$1,349	0x6b6c76…
08-13 23:01:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 13?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xbc8eee…
08-13 23:01:13	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 13?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xc3fb89…
08-13 22:55:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 13?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x8fdab0…
08-13 22:55:34	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on August 13?	No	BUY	1,100	100¢	$1,099	0xdc28f1…
08-13 22:55:04	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 13?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x3ba8c7…
08-13 22:54:42	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 13?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcfd060…
08-13 22:54:25	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 13?	No	BUY	73	100¢	$73	0x575fdb…
08-13 22:54:13	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 13?	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xc79a02…
08-13 22:54:10	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 13?	No	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0x4d477a…
08-13 22:53:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 13?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf51670…
08-13 22:53:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 13?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x7433f5…
08-13 22:52:57	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 13?	No	BUY	85	99¢	$84	0x5e63d2…
08-13 22:52:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 13?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xdae6ab…
08-13 22:52:52	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 13?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x02943b…
08-13 22:51:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 13?	Yes	BUY	204	99¢	$202	0x248c18…
08-12 23:42:06	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 12?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xe62dfd…
08-12 23:42:06	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 12?	Yes	BUY	67	99¢	$67	0xa7f620…
08-12 23:25:06	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 12?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xcfe41f…
08-12 23:17:04	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 12?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3db7cc…
08-12 23:16:21	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 12?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x47ea86…
08-12 23:14:27	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 12?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x936c28…
08-12 23:14:22	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on August 12?	No	BUY	336	100¢	$336	0x3dccb7…
08-12 23:14:10	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 12?	No	BUY	1,664	100¢	$1,662	0xc7a460…
08-12 23:13:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 12?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0x7dd599…
08-12 23:13:19	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 12?	No	BUY	378	99¢	$375	0xba545d…
08-12 23:13:07	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 12?	Yes	BUY	265	99¢	$262	0xc3be49…
08-07 00:54:12	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 7?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0xea9f4e…
08-07 00:48:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 7?	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xbff224…
08-07 00:40:15	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 7?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0xfbb4e6…
08-07 00:40:09	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 7?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xbad519…
08-07 00:40:09	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 7?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xa2e9f5…
08-07 00:25:09	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 7?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xc9f778…
08-06 22:03:42	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 7?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x5dbf08…
08-06 21:59:38	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	66	90¢	$60	0x0c727b…
08-06 21:59:12	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	75	90¢	$67	0x9dfd9c…
08-06 21:58:23	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 6?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x75a231…
08-06 21:57:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x6ca83a…
08-06 21:30:11	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 7?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x87ab41…
08-06 21:30:11	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 7?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x02ace2…
08-06 21:05:08	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 6?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0xc4cd92…
08-06 20:57:21	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x00eed6…