Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$501

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

94.9%

Resolved (90d)

4,228

Trades (90d)

6,135

6,135 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$137.0K

$137.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$45

2 positions

First seen

2026-08-18

last 11-01 04:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 91% -$369

Other

2% 15% -$95

Tech

0% 0% -$26

Politics

0% 8% -$9

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 221 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	No		+45	$24	94¢	$42	+$18	08-28 01:33
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Yes		+45	$25	6¢	$3	-$22	08-28 01:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	27	$415	583	213	+370	No	-$17	09-04 20:37
gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	27	$268	280	266	+14	No	+$0	09-04 15:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	4	$155	157	0	+157	Up	+$2	10-18 14:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 12:40 UTC	68	$155	288	0	+288	Up	+$30	09-24 12:43
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	10	$150	135	135	+0	No	-$4	08-28 13:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	3	$148	150	0	+150	Up	+$2	10-22 18:49
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	8	$145	138	138	+0	open	—	09-01 05:09
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	4	$136	150	150	+0	Yes	-$6	08-27 09:15
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother season 28?	9	$117	118	118	-0	No	-$20	08-31 18:17
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	10	$104	124	124	+0	Yes	-$8	09-04 17:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	2	$99	100	0	+100	Up	+$1	10-12 12:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 14:55 UTC	2	$99	100	0	+100	Down	+$1	10-16 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	6	$99	100	0	+100	Down	+$1	10-12 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	4	$99	100	0	+100	Down	+$1	10-11 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$99	100	0	+100	Up	+$1	10-18 10:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 18:45 UTC	2	$99	100	0	+100	Up	+$1	10-16 18:48
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	4	$91	135	45	+90	open	—	08-28 01:33
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	4	$90	100	100	+0	open	—	08-29 05:18
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	8	$89	82	82	+0	Yes	-$1	08-25 12:50
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?	9	$83	100	100	+0	Yes	-$6	08-27 16:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	3	$79	80	0	+80	Up	+$1	10-10 06:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:55 UTC	3	$79	40	40	+0	Down	+$0	09-29 17:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	3	$79	40	40	+0	Up	+$0	09-29 18:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 17:25 UTC	2	$79	40	40	+0	Up	+$0	09-29 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	2	$79	80	0	+80	Down	+$1	10-10 11:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	6	$79	80	0	+80	Up	+$1	10-10 08:34
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?	4	$79	129	41	+88	No	-$9	08-21 13:25
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?	9	$77	90	90	+0	Yes	-$7	09-05 01:04
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?	4	$77	87	87	+0	open	—	08-24 21:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	6	$74	75	0	+75	Up	+$1	10-24 03:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 04:39:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x9c20cb…
11-01 02:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xedf416…
11-01 02:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb6e09a…
11-01 01:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x5deb12…
11-01 00:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x5d2227…
11-01 00:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0xad439f…
10-31 23:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xcab536…
10-31 23:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xdd05fe…
10-31 23:40:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xc414e2…
10-31 23:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xb6fb49…
10-31 23:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x5b0b12…
10-31 23:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xe0d2c9…
10-31 23:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x9ef5ef…
10-31 23:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x4e4ebb…
10-31 23:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x3dddf0…
10-31 23:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x04a56e…
10-31 23:26:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xa36b09…
10-31 23:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xecdcd7…
10-31 23:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x0608bf…
10-31 23:13:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x3c4015…
10-31 23:13:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x427ca0…
10-31 23:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x99d113…
10-31 23:10:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x50b73b…
10-31 23:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x2b37a1…
10-31 23:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xf9f47c…
10-31 23:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x4a23dc…
10-31 23:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x45cb91…
10-31 23:06:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf30f07…
10-31 22:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe8b10f…
10-31 22:42:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb02c63…
10-31 20:56:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd51610…
10-31 19:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x6f5733…
10-31 19:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	4¢	$1	0x4a61b2…
10-31 19:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x3b46f6…
10-31 15:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0xc8bf8a…
10-31 15:58:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xf959f0…
10-31 15:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x9ef8f7…
10-31 15:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xa7957a…
10-31 15:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x32fc44…
10-31 15:28:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x91ebc1…
10-31 14:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xa23279…
10-31 14:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xa6f6b8…
10-31 12:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x40e825…
10-31 10:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x0487c5…
10-31 10:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x596948…
10-31 10:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x2e8392…
10-31 10:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x5ef8ec…
10-31 10:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x269f0b…
10-31 10:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x0be9b3…
10-31 10:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x2e3256…
10-31 10:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x657a06…
10-31 10:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x6365fa…
10-31 10:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x7d8975…
10-31 08:39:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x92ce60…
10-31 02:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0xcf268e…
10-31 01:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0xfc80b0…
10-31 00:57:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	9¢	$1	0x88213b…
10-31 00:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf1ac26…
10-31 00:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x204446…
10-31 00:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xcbb651…
10-31 00:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x6990c8…
10-31 00:46:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x3cbbfb…
10-31 00:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x5683df…
10-31 00:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xd43f9e…
10-31 00:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xbf6a1d…
10-31 00:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa074df…
10-31 00:42:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x19326b…
10-31 00:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xfacdf9…
10-31 00:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xcea1d9…
10-31 00:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x090725…
10-31 00:26:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x4df255…
10-31 00:26:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x56cf7d…
10-31 00:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xf7c38d…
10-31 00:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xedab9c…
10-31 00:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xb0ac97…
10-31 00:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x432bdd…
10-31 00:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x666b05…
10-31 00:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x32db6b…
10-31 00:12:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x3f2d01…
10-31 00:12:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x3aa9a0…
10-31 00:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x9c620b…
10-31 00:06:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x3d21b0…
10-31 00:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x7a5cf3…
10-31 00:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x391bbd…
10-31 00:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0xe8cfcc…
10-31 00:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0x8015b7…
10-31 00:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x62b8ba…
10-31 00:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0xf3548c…
10-31 00:02:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x0466f3…
10-31 00:02:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xa775b5…
10-31 00:02:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xf3e39b…
10-31 00:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xf861ac…
10-30 23:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x40c71b…
10-30 23:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0x458896…
10-30 23:51:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xfc745c…
10-30 23:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xfa97ba…
10-30 23:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x60abed…
10-30 23:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xc9a320…
10-30 23:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x9d7361…
10-30 23:39:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0xd3502b…