Rubbery-Festival — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$325

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

86.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,436

lifetime

Volume

$240.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$99

Open exposure

$48

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 07-22 02:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

68% 65% $-454

Politics

29% 100% +$129

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes		+50	$35	96¢	$48	+$13	07-11 11:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	82	$10.2K	9,764	1,684	+8,080	open	—	03-26 02:27
mbwm quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 21 2026 1pt26	27	$7.9K	4,618	3,982	+637	open	—	04-21 16:03
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	38	$7.0K	7,740	0	+7,740	open	—	04-30 09:03
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	20	$5.6K	5,792	1,509	+4,284	open	—	06-15 14:14
jpm quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 5pt43	18	$5.0K	2,606	2,606	+0	open	—	04-14 13:03
Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	18	$4.1K	4,169	691	+3,478	open	—	04-30 10:20
gd quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 22 2026 3pt67	31	$3.9K	4,314	0	+4,314	open	—	04-24 15:09
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	27	$3.7K	2,220	3,220	-1,000	open	—	03-30 23:28
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	17	$3.5K	2,134	1,900	+234	open	—	04-28 20:10
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?	22	$3.2K	3,522	0	+3,522	open	—	04-29 14:25
acn quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 19 2026 2pt85	8	$3.2K	1,675	1,675	+0	open	—	03-19 13:11
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	37	$3.2K	2,352	2,446	-93	open	—	04-16 22:42
jnj quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 14 2026 2pt68	19	$3.0K	3,418	0	+3,418	open	—	04-14 10:28
dow quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 neg0pt30	20	$2.8K	1,562	1,549	+13	open	—	04-23 11:59
intc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 0	19	$2.7K	3,017	0	+3,017	open	—	04-23 13:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	12	$2.6K	3,410	3,200	+210	open	—	06-15 09:32
will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian senate election	17	$2.6K	1,323	1,434	-111	open	—	03-09 11:53
gs quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 13 2026 15pt95	11	$2.6K	1,352	1,352	+0	open	—	04-13 15:08
will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	9	$2.5K	1,536	1,114	+421	open	—	03-09 18:48
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	19	$2.5K	2,688	0	+2,688	Yes	+$208	05-05 19:42
atp djokovi sinner 2026 01 30	8	$2.5K	2,643	0	+2,643	open	—	01-30 14:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	18	$2.4K	2,525	2,525	+0	open	—	04-29 04:35
will uae strike iran by march 31	4	$2.4K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	03-31 12:09
fdx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 19 2026 4pt08	34	$2.4K	1,662	831	+831	open	—	03-19 23:29
will velichie velichie win at least one seat in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	15	$2.3K	1,266	1,266	+0	open	—	04-21 14:01
Will BP (BP) beat quarterly earnings?	13	$2.3K	2,483	0	+2,483	open	—	04-28 04:44
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	9	$2.2K	1,021	1,300	-279	open	—	03-01 08:08
axp quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 23 2026 3pt99	9	$2.2K	1,466	900	+566	open	—	04-23 12:05
nvda quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 25 2026 1pt52	15	$2.1K	2,330	0	+2,330	open	—	02-24 14:00
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	10	$2.0K	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	03-23 03:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 02:17:15	gd quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 22 2026 3pt94	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x0524cc…
07-19 21:42:30	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xe6f2c6…
07-19 13:52:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xe2920d…
07-18 22:38:36	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	SELL	59	52¢	$30	0xc6e83c…
07-18 22:38:33	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	SELL	89	52¢	$46	0xe5f1db…
07-18 22:38:13	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	SELL	359	52¢	$187	0xd2b3ff…
07-18 21:19:25	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	507	73¢	$370	0xde5423…
07-15 20:52:22	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0x6f77dc…
07-15 20:26:46	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	300	25¢	$75	0x4dce82…
07-15 06:14:16	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	Yes	BUY	512	90¢	$461	0xe4932a…
07-15 05:57:50	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	Yes	BUY	181	89¢	$161	0xa4373b…
07-14 20:49:47	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x951628…
07-13 03:29:55	c quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 14 2026 2pt68	Yes	BUY	228	88¢	$200	0xea1fba…
07-12 10:53:40	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x99962a…
07-12 03:14:35	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x85fccc…
07-12 02:28:16	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x8d6cbb…
07-11 23:33:23	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x3c0873…
07-11 23:23:16	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x1c9949…
07-11 23:08:10	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0x103d80…
07-11 22:48:20	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	SELL	500	56¢	$280	0x529533…
07-11 22:23:47	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	BUY	500	60¢	$300	0x01a49e…
07-11 22:16:52	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0xea59d5…
07-11 11:00:53	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x47f870…
07-10 20:56:14	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	SELL	400	97¢	$388	0x0b1202…
07-10 20:42:25	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	300	71¢	$213	0x9f8ac4…
07-10 05:03:14	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	23	74¢	$17	0x59659b…
07-10 05:02:50	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	21	74¢	$16	0x8d14a8…
07-10 05:02:32	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0xbce4c7…
07-10 05:02:08	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	144	74¢	$106	0x171497…
07-08 13:35:46	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x69ae2d…
07-08 13:03:41	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x6d9486…
07-08 13:01:50	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x1d6089…
07-08 02:09:28	c quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 14 2026 2pt68	Yes	BUY	149	86¢	$127	0xa11d64…
07-08 02:09:23	c quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 14 2026 2pt68	Yes	BUY	44	86¢	$38	0xfd7eb8…
07-07 20:32:01	c quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 14 2026 2pt68	Yes	BUY	291	85¢	$248	0x9fcb7e…
07-07 20:32:01	c quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 14 2026 2pt68	Yes	BUY	209	85¢	$177	0x869898…
07-07 17:56:47	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	265	97¢	$257	0x32640f…
07-07 17:46:59	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0x7676c8…
07-07 17:21:50	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x7265e8…
07-07 17:17:52	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	94	60¢	$56	0x9a04b9…
07-07 17:17:50	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x735c4a…
07-07 17:17:50	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	49	60¢	$29	0x116fd9…
07-07 17:17:46	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x3a3ac1…
07-07 16:20:14	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	100	72¢	$72	0xd5f3aa…
07-07 16:15:52	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x413091…
07-06 02:50:20	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	England	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x42f6fd…
07-06 02:14:53	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	England	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xfa23a2…
07-05 14:52:05	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xcf38d5…
07-05 13:46:53	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xda922b…
07-05 13:08:13	will bill walker advance from the 2026 alaska governor primary election	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x3de072…
07-05 13:00:50	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xbd7408…
07-05 12:54:43	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xe8aa9d…
07-04 22:54:38	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xe696b2…
07-04 22:44:08	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0xc51012…
07-04 22:28:11	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	51	15¢	$8	0xdee224…
07-04 22:28:10	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	67	15¢	$10	0xbf80d6…
07-04 22:28:07	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	17	15¢	$2	0x1352dc…
07-04 22:27:59	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0x0524b9…
07-04 22:27:56	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	63	15¢	$9	0xe8c6f7…
07-04 05:24:01	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	Paraguay	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0xd0e8f6…
07-04 00:32:07	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	500	95¢	$475	0xfe43c8…
07-04 00:17:28	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	400	70¢	$280	0x135171…
07-01 17:02:20	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	England	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0xa8f84c…
07-01 16:21:59	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	England	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x528472…
07-01 16:18:13	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	England	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x8567c8…
07-01 07:59:50	c quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 14 2026 2pt68	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xdcd8f0…
07-01 07:40:04	c quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 14 2026 2pt68	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xa86bc7…
06-25 16:55:07	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xf31e77…
06-23 12:27:19	fdx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 23 2026 5pt91	Yes	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x50f46c…
06-16 12:37:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	134	1¢	$1	0x68b780…
06-15 16:04:13	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	300	75¢	$225	0xa2fd08…
06-15 14:14:51	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	1,509	100¢	$1,507	0x3b49a4…
06-15 14:13:55	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xc0327b…
06-15 09:32:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	800	6¢	$48	0x86d7a4…
06-15 07:03:25	fdx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 23 2026 5pt91	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x4723a1…
06-15 06:25:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x5488fc…
06-15 06:24:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	132	15¢	$20	0xc9895d…
06-15 06:24:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	208	15¢	$31	0x3c232b…
06-15 02:58:15	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	410	81¢	$332	0x67a067…
06-15 02:35:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x814c84…
06-15 02:34:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	325	20¢	$65	0x8e3107…
06-15 01:06:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	7¢	$105	0xe5dc8d…
06-14 23:43:27	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	300	75¢	$225	0x66b407…
06-14 21:18:40	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	800	85¢	$680	0x83dce8…
06-14 19:02:01	fdx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 23 2026 5pt91	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xfea7f5…
06-14 17:04:22	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	246	65¢	$160	0x25a5ac…
06-14 14:03:13	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	120	73¢	$88	0x93be02…
06-14 11:20:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	263	55¢	$145	0x26a40e…
06-14 10:01:24	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	9	72¢	$6	0xcaf0ac…
06-14 09:56:37	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0xf5d353…
06-14 09:46:45	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x97471b…
06-14 07:53:30	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x9437a3…
06-14 03:49:42	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	64	55¢	$35	0x72ced4…
06-13 22:16:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	137	55¢	$75	0x8125d3…
06-13 17:23:31	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x94121b…
06-13 17:23:07	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	86	66¢	$57	0x876e76…
06-13 15:43:12	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	500	68¢	$340	0x3eae39…
06-13 14:18:01	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xb64f27…
06-13 13:48:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	486	52¢	$253	0x366ee5…
06-13 13:46:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	52¢	$7	0x238867…