Far-Flung-Collapse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

84.5%

Resolved

106

Trades

306

lifetime

Volume

$2.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-22

last 10-17 07:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Other

79% 55% +$76

Crypto

20% 38% -$50

Politics

1% 100% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No		+3	$2	54¢	$1	$0	10-06 03:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 7?	10	$342	183	183	+0	No	+$9	10-06 08:19
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 7?	16	$317	220	220	+0	No	+$6	10-06 09:10
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 7?	11	$213	144	144	+0	Yes	+$53	10-07 06:00
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 6?	9	$190	110	110	+0	No	+$13	10-06 03:29
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 8?	5	$97	150	50	+100	No	+$2	10-08 15:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 6?	4	$95	52	52	+0	No	+$1	10-06 04:58
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$84	79	79	+0	Yes	+$72	05-15 14:43
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	6	$75	50	50	+0	Yes	+$6	10-06 03:29
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 8?	5	$66	49	29	+20	Yes	-$8	10-08 10:53
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 8?	4	$63	47	47	+0	Yes	+$3	10-08 14:21
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$59	67	0	+67	Yes	+$8	03-22 08:37
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$57	30	30	+0	open	—	10-07 13:01
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 8?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$1	10-08 12:31
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on October 7?	4	$52	34	34	+0	Yes	+$15	10-07 08:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	6	$43	52	42	+10	Up	-$1	05-18 01:51
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	7	$40	57	57	+0	Yes	+$8	10-09 03:32
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on October 4?	3	$39	25	20	+5	No	+$6	10-04 21:01
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 9?	3	$38	20	20	+0	No	+$1	10-09 08:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	2	$38	20	20	+0	Up	+$2	05-17 03:20
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 8?	3	$36	20	20	+0	No	+$4	10-08 08:11
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	3	$36	19	19	+0	No	+$1	05-18 00:58
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 9?	2	$35	20	20	+0	No	+$5	10-09 07:41
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on October 3?	5	$34	20	20	+0	No	+$6	10-04 00:55
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	2	$34	20	20	+0	No	+$2	10-17 07:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	4	$33	17	17	+0	Down	+$0	05-18 02:28
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 4?	3	$32	20	20	+0	No	+$7	10-04 15:53
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	3	$29	20	20	+0	No	+$4	10-06 04:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET	4	$28	60	0	+60	Down	+$2	05-16 09:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9PM ET	5	$28	22	20	+2	Down	+$3	04-26 01:58
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$22	30	30	+0	No	+$10	05-14 05:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 07:22:51	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x14d7c8…
10-14 11:23:32	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	12	70¢	$9	0xb92d7e…
10-14 11:23:11	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x78a7d5…
10-13 04:15:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on October 13?	No	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0x9938b6…
10-13 04:15:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x787f4a…
10-13 04:14:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x077050…
10-13 03:41:12	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x48c6c8…
10-13 02:43:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe890b6…
10-13 02:30:33	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on October 13?	No	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x1bac49…
10-13 02:23:20	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on October 13?	No	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x781c1c…
10-13 02:20:09	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0cc407…
10-13 02:18:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x03b977…
10-13 02:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xd0c02c…
10-13 02:13:32	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xb92221…
10-13 02:13:09	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xefd943…
10-13 02:12:50	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x54acc7…
10-13 02:12:35	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on October 13?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xeb0c2a…
10-12 19:17:32	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 14?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x112848…
10-12 16:03:24	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 14?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x345be3…
10-12 12:29:39	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 14?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xafde95…
10-12 12:01:08	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 14?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xa922ac…
10-12 11:08:59	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 12?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xd5ad26…
10-12 09:25:44	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 12?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xf7b818…
10-12 09:24:58	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x3f1ab2…
10-12 09:19:31	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x350817…
10-11 13:36:42	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	40	37¢	$15	0x6157ce…
10-11 13:36:36	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 12?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x73bebf…
10-10 23:05:54	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 11?	No	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0x449e4f…
10-10 18:04:49	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x78d496…
10-10 17:12:12	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 11?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xde5d8f…
10-10 16:51:30	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 11?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xe21dc2…
10-10 15:56:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 10?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x903c08…
10-10 15:22:57	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xfe920a…
10-10 09:06:01	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 10?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x4d60af…
10-10 07:36:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x327a2a…
10-10 07:02:13	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 10?	No	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x4b06cd…
10-10 07:02:00	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on October 10?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$9	0xb04fea…
10-10 07:01:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on October 10?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xa12499…
10-10 07:01:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on October 10?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xa0b20e…
10-10 06:46:34	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 10?	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x27da29…
10-10 04:00:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 10?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x15316f…
10-10 04:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 10?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x3ea80f…
10-09 23:00:59	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x57dff8…
10-09 14:10:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x3ebbf1…
10-09 08:26:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 9?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x2a8060…
10-09 08:13:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 9?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4ba9cc…
10-09 07:41:22	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 9?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x01a96e…
10-09 06:41:40	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	8	19¢	$2	0xdd031a…
10-09 04:13:06	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0x9a0bf3…
10-09 03:51:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x479acf…
10-09 03:32:20	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	35	41¢	$14	0x5cf792…
10-09 03:26:12	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x66e35a…
10-09 03:22:51	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0x42b520…
10-09 03:20:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 9?	No	BUY	9	19¢	$2	0x905b19…
10-09 03:07:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 9?	No	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xce8a7b…
10-09 03:07:08	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 9?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xa5bcf9…
10-09 03:02:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 9?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xa663d0…
10-09 03:00:17	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 9?	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x9a3c8c…
10-09 02:59:50	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 9?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0f216e…
10-09 02:59:47	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 9?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x532fe9…
10-09 02:23:11	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 9?	No	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x51e334…
10-09 02:17:11	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 9?	No	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x07b684…
10-09 01:40:05	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 9?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x04a679…
10-09 01:26:59	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x74c3c9…
10-09 00:55:38	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0x2109de…
10-09 00:46:27	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 9?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xa524ef…
10-08 15:24:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 8?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x09d1d6…
10-08 15:24:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	37	1¢	$0	0xf36760…
10-08 14:54:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	63	1¢	$1	0x20cb52…
10-08 14:24:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xa12c87…
10-08 14:22:51	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4b2579…
10-08 14:21:05	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	23	78¢	$18	0xf07b1a…
10-08 14:21:05	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	23	63¢	$15	0x21726f…
10-08 13:11:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 8?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x1ab5e8…
10-08 12:31:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 8?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x76e530…
10-08 12:30:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 8?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xdc4c8f…
10-08 12:18:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 8?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xa26b6c…
10-08 10:53:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x81595c…
10-08 10:53:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x70ba2f…
10-08 10:41:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	22	61¢	$13	0x2b319b…
10-08 08:11:14	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 8?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x394ed7…
10-08 06:04:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0xd97e5b…
10-08 06:04:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	26	87¢	$23	0xbb7002…
10-08 05:32:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0x969fe4…
10-08 05:16:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x63102d…
10-08 05:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xcef571…
10-08 05:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x2c67de…
10-08 05:06:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x122bc2…
10-08 05:05:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 8?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x0d8cf7…
10-08 04:58:58	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0x35ef72…
10-08 04:51:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x9813c6…
10-08 04:47:59	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 8?	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x0bfe7e…
10-08 04:46:38	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 8?	No	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0xfd331b…
10-08 04:46:38	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 8?	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x50a52c…
10-07 13:01:04	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x1bbb97…
10-07 08:57:32	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on October 7?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x72227b…
10-07 08:47:56	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on October 7?	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x43000c…
10-07 06:00:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 7?	Yes	SELL	69	92¢	$63	0xfca4d3…
10-07 05:35:53	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 7?	Yes	SELL	54	92¢	$50	0x29798d…
10-07 05:32:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 7?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xf55a77…