Loving-Snakebite — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$232

Unrealized P&L

-$37

Hit rate

71.3%

Resolved

Trades

360

lifetime

Volume

$4.33K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$119

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-26

last 10-28 01:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 63% -$165

Other

26% 75% -$53

Politics

10% 33% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+2,437	$40	2¢	$50	+$10	07-09 21:50
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,664	$60	3¢	$49	-$11	07-09 22:00
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+500	$55	4¢	$20	-$36	05-27 06:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	14	$156	305	76	+229	Yes	+$176	07-07 09:36
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	6	$146	359	0	+359	No	-$146	10-28 01:00
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	6	$129	256	256	+0	open	—	09-28 03:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	3	$123	134	104	+30	Down	-$40	05-31 05:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	11	$118	100	90	+10	Up	+$34	05-31 03:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	3	$118	104	104	-0	Down	+$12	05-31 05:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	6	$117	104	104	+0	Down	+$12	05-31 05:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	10	$115	101	101	+0	Down	+$21	05-31 05:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	7	$111	104	104	+0	Down	+$6	05-31 05:35
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	9	$111	224	124	+100	No	+$0	08-11 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$106	207	0	+207	Down	-$106	05-31 05:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	6	$93	83	83	+0	Down	+$5	05-31 09:02
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	4	$86	102	102	+0	open	—	06-28 04:45
Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	13	$81	1,061	128	+933	open	—	08-11 04:14
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	12	$74	375	257	+118	open	—	08-14 06:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	4	$71	62	62	+0	Down	+$7	05-31 05:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	3	$69	62	62	+0	Down	+$5	05-31 09:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	8	$68	140	0	+140	Down	-$68	05-31 03:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	5	$67	62	62	+0	Down	+$4	05-31 08:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	9	$66	52	52	+0	Up	+$17	05-31 03:34
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$64	151	0	+151	No	-$64	10-01 11:44
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	2	$64	87	0	+87	No	-$64	06-29 20:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	5	$62	50	50	+0	Up	+$6	05-31 09:26
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$60	1,664	0	+1,664	open	—	07-09 22:00
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	7	$58	407	407	+0	No	+$22	07-14 12:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	6	$58	50	50	+0	Down	+$9	05-31 04:26
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	2	$57	53	33	+20	No	-$34	07-03 23:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	5	$57	52	52	+0	Up	+$4	05-31 08:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	7	$56	52	52	+0	Up	+$3	05-31 08:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	7	$56	52	52	+0	Up	+$3	05-31 08:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 01:00:08	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xa2e3df…
10-15 12:29:25	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	51	53¢	$27	0x57bf33…
10-01 11:44:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0xb450ee…
10-01 11:43:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	35	36¢	$13	0xf40d4c…
09-28 03:30:44	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$7	0x03d2c8…
09-28 03:30:29	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	62	7¢	$4	0x66fec4…
09-18 04:05:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	67	51¢	$34	0x7b5cbe…
09-17 06:00:10	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	194	11¢	$21	0x8a5ac7…
09-14 12:21:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xf4a18a…
09-13 00:39:00	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	207	29¢	$60	0xc3ada4…
09-13 00:37:24	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0x49a972…
08-14 06:09:58	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	SELL	32	35¢	$11	0xb782ac…
08-13 13:52:30	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	SELL	61	20¢	$12	0xff8497…
08-11 04:14:30	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	SELL	128	28¢	$36	0x76fba5…
08-11 00:59:06	Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	SELL	41	45¢	$18	0x596267…
08-11 00:55:03	Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	SELL	83	45¢	$37	0xfecf51…
08-06 08:07:39	Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	BUY	41	18¢	$7	0x959af7…
08-03 10:17:48	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	508	3¢	$16	0x5b5a3e…
08-01 04:20:26	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	82	40¢	$33	0x12e987…
07-31 09:49:30	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	62	31¢	$19	0x4989ee…
07-29 11:26:08	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	Yes	SELL	52	7¢	$4	0x967a5b…
07-25 03:43:25	Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	BUY	58	24¢	$14	0x75ac44…
07-25 03:37:37	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	61	46¢	$28	0xbdb5b1…
07-24 20:22:28	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	51	46¢	$24	0x667415…
07-23 06:17:48	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	SELL	410	4¢	$16	0x7571cb…
07-21 07:10:21	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xd3eb21…
07-21 07:05:36	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	SELL	103	17¢	$17	0x7e85b2…
07-19 05:30:21	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	BUY	148	3¢	$4	0x96dbce…
07-18 04:19:10	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0xed55d9…
07-16 09:15:55	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	272	4¢	$10	0x95c381…
07-16 09:14:56	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	208	4¢	$8	0x05b8c3…
07-16 08:43:14	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	BUY	115	5¢	$6	0x291543…
07-14 12:59:29	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x1c5a32…
07-10 00:29:14	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	Yes	BUY	52	56¢	$29	0x5600e5…
07-09 22:00:01	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	1,664	4¢	$60	0x97e9fb…
07-09 21:50:40	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	924	1¢	$10	0xde736f…
07-08 21:34:20	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	40	15¢	$6	0x5a05f5…
07-08 15:05:41	will graham platner drop out by july 9	Yes	SELL	3	82¢	$3	0x89069f…
07-08 14:20:01	will graham platner drop out by july 9	Yes	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0xf63923…
07-08 12:28:08	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xd153de…
07-08 12:27:37	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	BUY	31	15¢	$4	0x0fe296…
07-08 12:10:50	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xac014c…
07-08 09:21:04	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xe3a514…
07-08 09:00:28	will graham platner drop out by july 9	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x9c8172…
07-08 04:35:19	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	108	6¢	$6	0xa11654…
07-07 09:36:53	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xec450b…
07-07 09:36:53	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x9fc799…
07-07 09:36:53	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x9f93f2…
07-07 07:28:25	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0xe44892…
07-07 06:02:26	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	38	68¢	$26	0x79d33a…
07-07 02:44:11	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x643cf9…
07-06 07:05:28	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0x0937cb…
07-04 23:00:35	Will France win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x860905…
07-03 23:46:05	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	SELL	33	36¢	$12	0xda0f42…
07-03 07:08:43	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	53	86¢	$46	0x5af38f…
07-03 05:42:37	Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x7220ab…
07-02 13:50:38	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	160	9¢	$14	0x768d2e…
07-02 12:14:22	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	107	18¢	$19	0xdaf674…
07-01 11:26:35	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	182	5¢	$9	0xf4ae99…
07-01 11:26:35	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xa89540…
07-01 11:24:58	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x39fc10…
06-29 20:27:02	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	51	74¢	$38	0xdebe45…
06-29 07:41:58	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	38	58¢	$22	0x880091…
06-29 07:37:22	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	35	73¢	$26	0xfc6729…
06-28 09:11:55	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	106	24¢	$25	0x31d6a5…
06-28 04:50:53	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x843fb4…
06-28 04:45:34	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	42¢	$21	0xcda278…
06-28 04:32:17	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	52	24¢	$12	0xb30bc0…
06-28 04:30:40	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x0f9468…
06-28 04:29:32	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	52	24¢	$12	0x969686…
06-28 03:28:32	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x12b978…
06-27 05:42:49	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$25	0x1116a5…
06-27 05:38:32	Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x65f8c7…
06-27 04:08:40	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xbec07a…
06-27 00:49:20	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	69	4¢	$2	0x977cc9…
06-27 00:19:41	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x33c03b…
06-27 00:18:41	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xaadff2…
06-25 07:28:14	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	18	74¢	$13	0x23ae4f…
06-25 04:49:19	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0x7ef4d0…
06-25 04:33:49	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	87	4¢	$4	0x6f95d9…
06-24 07:14:25	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x50f2bf…
06-24 05:55:32	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	49	6¢	$3	0xb98803…
06-24 05:55:10	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xd23b65…
06-22 09:52:19	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	323	2¢	$5	0xa7fdd1…
06-21 06:31:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$13	0x47b981…
06-21 05:17:46	Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x80b28b…
06-21 05:09:22	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	SELL	61	14¢	$9	0x49af4a…
06-21 03:13:02	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x38a202…
06-21 03:12:50	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x945f58…
06-21 03:12:37	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x54ab58…
06-21 02:56:04	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	43¢	$22	0x85b855…
06-18 11:15:14	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	33	77¢	$26	0x75d513…
06-17 05:28:22	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xd0b03b…
06-16 06:13:13	Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	46	9¢	$4	0xe617f8…
06-16 05:48:45	Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	BUY	49	27¢	$13	0x46baa9…
06-16 05:32:34	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	45¢	$23	0x30afdf…
06-01 00:27:48	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0xeef0c0…
05-31 12:09:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0x80f080…
05-31 11:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	31	42¢	$13	0xea18a8…
05-31 11:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	SELL	7	24¢	$2	0x34bc4a…