Cylindrical-Cause — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.56K

Unrealized P&L

-$50

Hit rate

61.8%

Resolved

251

Trades

2,097

lifetime

Volume

$146.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$70

Open exposure

$2.10K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 10-21 03:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 111 days

Categories

Politics

90% 57% +$1,940

Other

8% 24% -$731

Sports

1% 100% +$1,421

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% 0% -$67

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	No		+2,000	$1,440	87¢	$1.7K	+$300	09-07 06:49
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+17,389	$707	2¢	$356	-$350	09-21 07:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran strike on israel by february 28	50	$6.2K	4,704	4,404	+300	Yes	+$1,729	02-28 20:45
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	60	$6.1K	5,500	5,499	+1	No	+$339	05-16 22:58
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	30	$5.4K	3,352	3,205	+147	No	+$47	05-28 19:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	15	$5.2K	14,500	2,595	+11,905	Yes	-$1,990	06-16 18:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	15	$4.8K	5,250	5,250	+0	Yes	-$1,446	06-15 01:52
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	36	$4.6K	4,000	2,000	+2,000	No	+$380	05-26 07:57
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?	23	$4.5K	2,500	2,499	+1	Yes	+$526	04-10 13:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$4.0K	2,250	2,250	+0	No	+$485	06-01 07:56
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	89	$3.0K	4,500	4,212	+288	No	-$224	05-30 19:47
iran closes its airspace by june 8	36	$2.9K	4,590	4,590	+0	Yes	+$156	06-08 05:29
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	2	$2.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$10	05-26 03:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$2.7K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$252	05-06 12:12
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	9	$2.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$94	05-25 19:26
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	10	$2.4K	1,811	1,611	+200	Yes	+$421	03-24 07:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	10	$2.4K	2,250	2,250	+0	No	-$120	04-25 16:34
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	348	$2.4K	1,497	1,497	+0	Yes	+$510	07-17 02:22
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$2.3K	1,301	1,301	+0	No	+$289	05-26 10:39
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	20	$2.3K	3,500	4,199	-699	No	-$461	06-12 05:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	2	$2.2K	2,750	0	+2,750	No	+$567	05-28 18:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	13	$2.1K	6,000	6,000	+0	Yes	+$747	04-08 03:10
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$1.8K	3,000	2,250	+750	Yes	+$1,421	06-11 03:57
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.8K	0	2,000	-2,000	No	-$231	06-18 04:11
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 29 2026 526	30	$1.5K	1,109	814	+295	Yes	-$9	03-30 20:13
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	8	$1.4K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	09-07 06:49
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	17	$1.3K	3,500	3,500	+0	No	+$592	06-07 19:04
will israel take military action in gaza on march 25 2026	10	$1.2K	1,054	550	+504	Yes	+$119	03-25 21:08
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	10	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$354	03-26 08:24
will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	1	$1.2K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$322	06-10 21:55
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 30 2026 278	17	$1.1K	1,189	100	+1,089	Yes	+$144	03-30 14:58
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?	9	$1.1K	1,257	0	+1,257	Yes	+$131	04-01 17:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 03:46:53	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	Yes	SELL	675	71¢	$476	0x9eb0a0…
10-19 14:57:48	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	Yes	BUY	74	78¢	$58	0x970faf…
10-19 11:19:05	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	Yes	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x460c85…
10-19 10:55:33	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	Yes	BUY	221	78¢	$172	0x3025ad…
10-16 17:32:05	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Yes	SELL	750	6¢	$46	0x564718…
10-16 16:35:28	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x4de377…
10-15 11:18:52	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xb3c230…
10-15 07:07:13	israel military action against lebanon on october 25	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x0208e1…
10-15 07:05:23	israel military action against lebanon on october 25	Yes	BUY	172	78¢	$134	0x9a45f0…
10-15 07:05:23	israel military action against lebanon on october 25	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x449425…
10-13 21:52:00	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x0a3fef…
10-11 02:30:42	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 30?	Yes	BUY	750	78¢	$585	0xd827f4…
10-11 02:16:20	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	91	78¢	$71	0xa05224…
10-10 20:50:45	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	Yes	BUY	188	77¢	$144	0xe982ce…
10-10 20:50:24	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	Yes	BUY	76	75¢	$57	0x8b9e3b…
10-10 06:25:24	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?	Yes	BUY	605	78¢	$472	0x46de82…
10-10 06:24:01	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?	Yes	BUY	533	78¢	$416	0xf72b67…
10-10 06:19:28	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24?	Yes	BUY	44	60¢	$26	0x684042…
10-10 00:29:02	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x435ef0…
10-10 00:27:19	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	15	78¢	$11	0x9309a8…
10-10 00:27:14	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x55ffa9…
10-10 00:01:56	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24?	Yes	BUY	750	78¢	$585	0x886173…
10-09 20:40:32	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x623278…
10-09 11:44:07	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x6baed3…
10-09 11:44:06	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?	Yes	BUY	25	78¢	$20	0xcd63ff…
10-09 11:44:06	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xa258be…
10-09 10:06:09	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	220	78¢	$172	0x1a6997…
10-09 10:04:37	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Yes	SELL	174	5¢	$9	0xcba319…
10-09 05:42:35	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xfbcf95…
10-09 00:59:59	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x5e6044…
10-09 00:27:59	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x5f91d6…
10-09 00:27:02	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x2017a1…
10-09 00:26:54	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x535687…
10-09 00:26:51	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x07493c…
10-09 00:26:48	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x385258…
10-09 00:26:47	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x173475…
10-09 00:25:54	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x423a4d…
10-08 21:50:03	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?	Yes	BUY	93	78¢	$72	0xa4c83f…
10-08 20:29:05	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?	Yes	BUY	216	78¢	$168	0xe8cfa7…
10-08 18:26:02	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xee8f9e…
10-08 18:08:30	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xc9757b…
10-08 14:27:15	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	120	78¢	$94	0x0d6230…
10-08 13:59:53	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf2b441…
10-08 13:56:26	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x22eaf1…
10-08 13:28:50	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x95d26d…
10-08 13:28:44	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 20?	Yes	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0x7e93d1…
10-08 09:34:54	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0xfd601e…
10-08 06:57:11	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8?	Yes	BUY	29	78¢	$23	0x8c238c…
10-08 06:51:52	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 20?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x7f8f95…
10-08 05:46:34	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x8a01c8…
10-08 04:30:01	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x7e8209…
10-08 04:08:34	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x475da8…
10-08 03:08:01	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xa0623d…
10-08 00:45:55	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xdce284…
10-08 00:37:16	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0xe3465a…
10-08 00:37:10	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 20?	Yes	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xff82c5…
10-08 00:37:07	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xf71ed0…
10-08 00:29:28	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?	Yes	BUY	192	79¢	$152	0xe76449…
10-08 00:27:47	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?	Yes	BUY	22	78¢	$17	0xc59acc…
10-08 00:27:08	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x66ea19…
10-08 00:25:53	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	78¢	$16	0x7cf23e…
10-08 00:17:07	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xb124e4…
10-08 00:14:22	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x90d3b3…
10-07 22:40:10	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Yes	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0xcca21a…
10-07 21:58:21	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Yes	BUY	140	43¢	$60	0x2d323f…
10-07 21:57:58	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Yes	BUY	179	43¢	$77	0x402623…
10-07 20:16:19	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 21?	Yes	BUY	194	79¢	$153	0xac4870…
10-07 20:15:58	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	Yes	BUY	115	68¢	$78	0xdd4855…
10-01 09:43:35	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,486	7¢	$104	0xe995e6…
10-01 09:10:20	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0xa2fa36…
10-01 09:10:17	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x219b3b…
09-25 05:38:06	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 28?	Yes	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0x82179f…
09-22 18:31:57	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 22?	Yes	BUY	139	78¢	$109	0x5ce8bb…
09-22 17:35:01	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 22?	Yes	BUY	202	78¢	$158	0xcb05c8…
09-22 10:39:12	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 22?	Yes	BUY	52	78¢	$41	0x7f5721…
09-22 10:38:09	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 22?	Yes	BUY	106	78¢	$83	0x952b81…
09-21 07:27:44	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4,092	4¢	$164	0xd0019e…
09-21 07:27:44	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	908	5¢	$42	0x7dc112…
09-20 13:35:57	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 20?	Yes	BUY	41	78¢	$32	0x64738d…
09-20 13:35:10	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 20?	Yes	BUY	159	78¢	$124	0x3bc3c1…
09-20 12:43:22	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 20?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x7846c8…
09-20 10:21:48	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 20?	Yes	BUY	45	78¢	$35	0xac6867…
09-19 16:08:11	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18?	Yes	SELL	437	15¢	$66	0x989817…
09-19 15:39:15	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18?	Yes	SELL	63	15¢	$9	0xca60a7…
09-19 11:37:53	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 20?	Yes	BUY	22	78¢	$17	0x842d6a…
09-19 05:11:55	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18?	Yes	BUY	500	54¢	$270	0x1304db…
09-19 00:13:36	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18?	Yes	BUY	391	85¢	$333	0x2de5c2…
09-18 11:23:43	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18?	Yes	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0xb43d52…
09-17 02:45:46	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x2b0210…
09-17 02:44:33	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18?	Yes	BUY	22	85¢	$19	0xe1f72d…
09-17 02:44:33	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xc0b06c…
09-16 15:18:03	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 16?	Yes	BUY	211	87¢	$184	0x3f707c…
09-16 15:17:54	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 16?	Yes	BUY	28	87¢	$25	0x122f01…
09-16 14:05:03	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 16?	Yes	BUY	28	87¢	$24	0x92b206…
09-15 14:17:10	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 20?	Yes	BUY	227	78¢	$177	0x9bf6c7…
09-15 08:02:10	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 17?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x17028e…
09-15 08:02:07	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 17?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x55f5a9…
09-15 05:38:40	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 17?	Yes	BUY	342	84¢	$287	0xf3176f…
09-15 05:38:28	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 16?	Yes	BUY	233	87¢	$203	0xd9649a…
09-14 15:27:18	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	389	4¢	$17	0x157d6d…