Stiff-Easel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

+$168

Hit rate

13.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,284

lifetime

Volume

$623.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$273

Open exposure

$562

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-02 01:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

59% 50% $-27

Politics

38% 100% +$2

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 72 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes		-4,500	$-730	12¢	$-562	+$168	06-21 18:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	34	$48.7K	25,963	25,900	+63	open	—	04-29 03:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	99	$45.2K	26,616	26,616	+0	open	—	04-25 18:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	39	$44.6K	23,179	23,179	+0	open	—	03-30 17:13
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	107	$37.7K	19,841	20,041	-200	Yes	$-152	04-12 01:53
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	78	$31.8K	16,584	17,014	-430	open	—	03-04 16:24
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	23	$29.2K	15,304	15,304	+0	open	—	03-31 18:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	19	$20.4K	10,830	10,803	+27	open	—	04-30 04:15
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	19	$17.9K	9,226	9,226	+0	open	—	03-31 17:07
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	42	$17.1K	6,723	15,384	-8,661	open	—	01-29 01:51
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	44	$14.6K	7,709	7,709	+0	open	—	02-01 03:49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	50	$14.4K	8,345	7,706	+639	open	—	04-29 02:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	64	$13.5K	7,053	7,038	+16	open	—	04-29 05:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	6	$11.4K	5,950	5,950	+0	open	—	05-11 15:55
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	4	$10.5K	5,353	5,353	-0	open	—	01-30 04:12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	5	$9.8K	5,005	5,005	+0	open	—	04-27 14:23
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	19	$9.8K	5,156	5,156	+0	open	—	03-31 16:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	36	$9.6K	5,085	5,037	+48	open	—	04-27 03:46
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	21	$9.6K	5,300	5,200	+100	open	—	04-02 18:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$9.4K	4,900	4,900	+0	open	—	05-28 19:43
starmer out by june 22 2026	14	$8.7K	6,368	4,288	+2,079	open	—	06-22 03:26
will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	54	$8.6K	5,473	5,449	+23	open	—	07-01 03:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	5	$7.7K	9,027	0	+9,027	open	—	04-30 00:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	14	$6.8K	3,941	3,917	+25	open	—	04-27 14:55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	8	$6.6K	3,647	3,647	-0	open	—	04-10 16:45
will trump say operation epic fury during address to the nation	18	$6.5K	7,154	0	+7,154	open	—	04-01 23:45
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	13	$6.4K	3,385	3,385	-0	open	—	03-13 06:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	14	$6.3K	3,576	3,553	+23	open	—	04-08 16:43
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	5	$6.3K	3,213	3,213	-0	open	—	05-19 13:53
will bitcoin reach 95k in february 2026	7	$6.1K	3,217	3,217	+0	open	—	02-10 18:08
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	11	$6.0K	4,028	4,028	-0	open	—	07-01 02:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 01:12:05	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x6f17ab…
07-02 01:11:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	99	76¢	$76	0x6a6986…
07-01 03:04:22	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	1,687	99¢	$1,670	0x7abc5a…
07-01 02:53:46	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	136	77¢	$105	0xb82d2c…
07-01 02:51:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	635	86¢	$547	0x5dab39…
07-01 02:49:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	65	88¢	$57	0x19153d…
07-01 02:49:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	700	86¢	$602	0xc128ac…
07-01 00:26:13	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd62407…
06-30 22:54:28	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	500	99¢	$495	0x24c9a6…
06-30 21:41:22	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa3daa9…
06-30 21:14:46	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd23325…
06-30 18:51:29	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8cc804…
06-30 16:14:52	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	210	99¢	$208	0xff257b…
06-30 15:52:52	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0x53ed03…
06-30 12:42:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	49	82¢	$40	0x0c5adc…
06-30 12:41:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	60	81¢	$49	0xca2e2d…
06-30 12:41:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	22	81¢	$18	0x5aecb8…
06-30 12:40:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	58	81¢	$47	0x867b5a…
06-30 12:40:22	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	267	54¢	$145	0x3d2f44…
06-30 12:39:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$49	0x168823…
06-30 12:39:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	476	81¢	$385	0xe685e3…
06-30 12:35:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	2,000	78¢	$1,568	0xf38c5d…
06-30 12:34:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	300	61¢	$182	0xed1e5d…
06-30 12:33:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	939	54¢	$506	0xdae1ca…
06-30 12:33:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	2,327	63¢	$1,460	0xb47d7e…
06-29 02:36:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	506	78¢	$395	0x9a98ca…
06-29 02:34:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	931	78¢	$723	0xa0f283…
06-29 01:22:13	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	400	90¢	$360	0xa0ffec…
06-29 00:47:14	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	160	90¢	$144	0x404332…
06-29 00:40:49	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	54	90¢	$49	0x1d240b…
06-29 00:36:41	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	28	90¢	$25	0x0ff761…
06-29 00:18:20	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x930947…
06-28 21:20:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	127	69¢	$87	0xdb5483…
06-28 21:20:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	638	78¢	$496	0x0a42b4…
06-28 21:04:22	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	1,000	18¢	$180	0xa0a637…
06-28 21:03:41	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	99	90¢	$89	0x777c30…
06-28 21:02:50	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	60	89¢	$53	0xb029ec…
06-28 20:40:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	260	76¢	$198	0xffe8a5…
06-28 20:39:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	53	71¢	$37	0x1574cd…
06-28 20:39:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	220	71¢	$156	0xe4cd12…
06-28 20:38:56	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	212	90¢	$192	0x88285a…
06-28 20:37:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	1,092	76¢	$827	0xe07bb3…
06-28 20:37:34	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	SELL	500	70¢	$351	0xff0097…
06-28 20:37:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	SELL	500	95¢	$476	0xd08f5c…
06-28 18:53:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	500	83¢	$415	0x9828eb…
06-28 18:52:40	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	470	92¢	$432	0xabd42a…
06-28 18:51:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0xd6cd90…
06-28 18:51:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	600	91¢	$546	0x6f749b…
06-28 13:40:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	SELL	364	95¢	$345	0xd175b7…
06-28 13:35:37	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xb2611c…
06-28 13:33:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	SELL	131	95¢	$124	0xa0e4f1…
06-28 01:59:20	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	94	86¢	$81	0xb5df3b…
06-28 00:48:04	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	163	84¢	$136	0x6020b8…
06-27 23:56:08	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	SELL	500	67¢	$335	0x6ab17b…
06-27 23:55:04	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	SELL	273	85¢	$233	0x3abff6…
06-27 23:55:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	SELL	727	85¢	$618	0xfaa386…
06-23 05:24:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	1,000	82¢	$818	0x5a007b…
06-23 05:24:23	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0xf0fadb…
06-23 05:21:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	BUY	2,000	94¢	$1,880	0xf1b611…
06-23 04:24:23	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	26	85¢	$22	0xeeb8fa…
06-23 03:41:50	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	67	85¢	$57	0xc5ac16…
06-23 03:41:22	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	38	87¢	$33	0x889b32…
06-23 03:41:08	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	114	85¢	$97	0xa3c98a…
06-23 03:39:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	300	70¢	$210	0xa436a7…
06-23 03:17:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	300	71¢	$213	0x50a6ad…
06-23 03:13:58	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xcd2905…
06-23 03:13:55	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	857	87¢	$744	0x79e85b…
06-23 01:17:29	will the announcers say hattrick hat trick during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023977	Yes	BUY	51	62¢	$32	0x6ad9da…
06-23 01:06:29	will the announcers say comeback come back during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023967	Yes	SELL	80	81¢	$65	0xdef1f5…
06-23 00:51:01	will the announcers say handball during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023963	Yes	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0x2d9247…
06-23 00:39:04	will the announcers say comeback come back during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023967	Yes	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0xc893a5…
06-22 23:26:32	will the announcers say comeback come back during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023967	Yes	BUY	120	84¢	$101	0x328a3f…
06-22 21:53:31	will the announcers say handball during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900201	Yes	BUY	21	27¢	$6	0xd5e334…
06-22 21:42:08	will the announcers say handball during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900201	Yes	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0xdb5708…
06-22 21:23:58	will the announcers say handball during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900201	Yes	SELL	113	58¢	$65	0x9699cd…
06-22 21:22:52	will the announcers say handball during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023963	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xb9b8c1…
06-22 21:22:52	will the announcers say handball during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023963	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xa748a7…
06-22 21:22:52	will the announcers say handball during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023963	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x850993…
06-22 21:22:50	will the announcers say handball during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023963	Yes	BUY	821	54¢	$440	0x1c072d…
06-22 21:19:19	will the announcers say handball during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900201	Yes	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xeaead9…
06-22 21:18:11	will the announcers say handball during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900201	Yes	SELL	351	66¢	$232	0x337cae…
06-22 19:11:17	will the announcers say handball during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900201	Yes	SELL	40	69¢	$28	0xbae059…
06-22 18:53:52	will the announcers say golden boot during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628606	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x9a33cb…
06-22 18:53:52	will the announcers say golden boot during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628606	Yes	BUY	156	98¢	$153	0x0eca3a…
06-22 18:36:50	will the announcers say visa during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628593	No	BUY	214	6¢	$13	0x88a159…
06-22 18:33:17	will the announcers say visa during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628593	No	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x5ab084…
06-22 18:33:10	will the announcers say visa during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628593	No	BUY	31	6¢	$2	0x7451f6…
06-22 18:31:11	will the announcers say visa during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628593	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x0f8ab4…
06-22 18:23:53	will the announcers say visa during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628593	No	BUY	275	4¢	$11	0x53759d…
06-22 18:23:44	will the announcers say handball during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900201	Yes	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xcfb061…
06-22 18:08:20	will the announcers say golden boot during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628606	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x9e240a…
06-22 18:06:47	will the announcers say handball during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023963	Yes	BUY	102	52¢	$53	0xfc75f0…
06-22 18:04:25	will the announcers say handball during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900201	Yes	BUY	1,253	57¢	$713	0xfdaddc…
06-22 18:03:23	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628595	Yes	SELL	37	92¢	$34	0x5085f5…
06-22 18:02:31	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628595	Yes	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xa0ee20…
06-22 18:02:29	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628595	Yes	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0xef687e…
06-22 18:02:10	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628595	Yes	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x7079a3…
06-22 17:34:34	will the announcers say golden boot during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628606	Yes	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x4be227…
06-22 16:25:13	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs austria fifa world cup match 20260619205628595	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xa74b90…
06-22 03:26:28	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	650	78¢	$507	0xcd7a2b…