Hard-Tea — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$211

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

88.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$115

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-12

last 10-02 05:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

82% 40% -$209

Politics

18% 50% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No		+3	$3	98¢	$3	+$0	10-02 05:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	11	$1.6K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$0	03-30 06:10
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	2	$839	425	425	+0	No	+$0	05-06 08:06
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	2	$772	397	397	+0	No	+$0	05-05 04:59
Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)	1	$418	435	0	+435	Elche CF	+$17	05-09 07:03
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)	1	$386	420	0	+420	Qingdao Xihaian FC	+$34	05-05 05:34
dota2 ic shpili 2026 03 12	1	$175	250	0	+250	Team Shpilit	-$175	03-12 11:39
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	2	$76	812	812	+0	No	+$0	05-12 05:29
hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	5	$74	891	891	+0	No	-$13	08-02 08:51
us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	4	$56	860	860	+0	No	-$3	06-29 12:17
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	3	$55	810	810	+0	No	-$11	05-13 04:58
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)	2	$50	1,110	0	+1,110	Athletic Club	-$50	05-13 05:04
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5)	2	$9	785	0	+785	RC Celta de Vigo	-$9	05-12 05:32
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	10-02 05:14
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$2	30	30	+0	open	—	09-04 05:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-02 05:14:29	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x946e3e…
09-04 05:24:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x28980a…
09-04 05:20:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x9b2588…
08-02 08:51:56	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	SELL	186	3¢	$6	0xe10cd0…
08-02 08:49:29	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	SELL	705	3¢	$24	0x1c14a9…
08-02 08:05:24	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	BUY	445	5¢	$22	0x5ad7d4…
08-02 08:05:24	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	BUY	431	5¢	$21	0x16e34a…
08-02 08:05:23	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x3d0498…
06-29 12:17:29	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	SELL	430	3¢	$13	0xb6d1cd…
06-29 12:17:29	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	SELL	430	3¢	$13	0x376806…
06-29 09:53:50	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	BUY	440	3¢	$15	0x7b16e3…
06-29 09:53:49	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	BUY	420	3¢	$14	0xed9944…
05-13 05:04:21	Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	BUY	755	5¢	$34	0x1aa4f5…
05-13 05:03:45	Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	BUY	355	4¢	$16	0xc4a6f3…
05-13 04:58:21	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	810	3¢	$22	0x8be329…
05-13 03:20:31	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	379	4¢	$16	0xf1da26…
05-13 03:20:30	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	431	4¢	$18	0x723633…
05-12 05:32:20	Spread: Levante UD (-2.5)	Levante UD	BUY	370	1¢	$4	0xdd3a4c…
05-12 05:32:15	Spread: Levante UD (-2.5)	Levante UD	BUY	415	1¢	$5	0x1b2aec…
05-12 05:29:18	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	812	5¢	$38	0x5cf9f4…
05-12 02:39:37	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	812	5¢	$38	0x4d59b6…
05-09 07:03:05	Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)	Elche CF	BUY	435	96¢	$418	0xc4380f…
05-06 08:06:30	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	SELL	425	99¢	$419	0x065e4e…
05-06 06:59:38	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	BUY	425	99¢	$419	0xb3e573…
05-05 05:34:04	Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)	Qingdao Xihaian FC	BUY	420	92¢	$386	0xaf4344…
05-05 04:59:24	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	397	97¢	$386	0xf16c94…
05-05 03:01:48	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	397	97¢	$386	0x02c6a5…
03-30 06:10:30	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	443	65¢	$288	0x88a90e…
03-30 06:06:58	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xa12bbf…
03-30 05:54:48	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0xdc97cd…
03-30 05:52:54	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	43	65¢	$28	0xe60d5c…
03-30 05:50:48	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0xef17a5…
03-30 05:45:08	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x3b4973…
03-30 05:42:14	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	538	65¢	$350	0x127b15…
03-30 05:42:10	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	157	65¢	$102	0x5ea55b…
03-30 05:17:22	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	408	65¢	$265	0xe5c17d…
03-30 05:17:20	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	67	65¢	$44	0xdb73ae…
03-30 05:17:20	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	725	65¢	$471	0x0b6102…
03-12 11:39:45	dota2 ic shpili 2026 03 12	Inner Circle	BUY	250	70¢	$175	0xaeb7f5…