Optimistic-Threat-Quota — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$772

Unrealized P&L

-$25

Hit rate

68.8%

Resolved

1,891

Trades

5,469

lifetime

Volume

$52.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$163

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 10-24 00:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 57% -$846

Politics

3% 25% -$133

Other

1% 38% -$268

Sports

1% 43% +$18

Tech

0% 50% +$457

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 203 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+757	$158	16¢	$121	-$36	06-24 10:44
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+60	$17	36¢	$21	+$4	05-23 14:30
will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639	No	+20	$9	86¢	$17	+$8	06-26 12:15
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	+60	$4	5¢	$3	-$1	06-26 13:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 20:50 UTC	8	$442	288	288	+0	Down	+$70	07-02 20:53
iran closes its airspace by june 8	3	$384	128,050	128,050	+0	Yes	-$128	06-08 07:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 15:25 UTC	7	$327	259	259	+0	Up	-$15	07-04 15:27
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	1	$278	510	0	+510	No	-$278	06-25 18:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 15:10 UTC	5	$261	182	182	+0	Down	+$51	07-03 15:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 18:00 UTC	2	$259	216	216	+0	Up	+$39	07-02 18:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 20:35 UTC	4	$255	180	180	+0	Down	+$25	07-04 20:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 14:55 UTC	3	$249	151	151	+0	Down	+$39	07-03 14:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 21:00 UTC	5	$248	156	156	+0	Down	+$38	07-02 21:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 15:20 UTC	9	$241	183	183	+0	Down	+$11	07-03 15:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 19:20 UTC	2	$225	149	149	+0	Down	+$25	07-03 19:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 00:20 UTC	5	$224	169	169	+0	Down	+$24	07-04 00:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 14:35 UTC	4	$212	161	161	+0	Up	+$42	07-03 14:36
will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	1	$200	541	0	+541	No	+$341	06-26 11:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 00:00 UTC	6	$193	177	177	+0	Up	-$31	07-08 00:03
israel closes its airspace by june 9	2	$191	150	150	+0	No	-$1	06-08 07:22
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	3	$182	200	200	+0	No	-$2	06-08 07:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 20:40 UTC	3	$181	133	133	+0	Up	-$9	07-04 20:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 23:40 UTC	8	$181	133	130	+2	Down	+$23	07-02 23:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 02:35 UTC	5	$180	162	162	+0	Down	+$46	07-03 02:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 20:40 UTC	12	$174	107	107	+0	Up	+$8	07-03 20:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 17:00 UTC	10	$173	122	122	+0	Up	+$43	07-03 17:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 20:10 UTC	4	$172	121	121	+0	Down	+$32	07-02 20:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 15:15 UTC	5	$169	134	134	+0	Down	+$51	07-03 15:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 17:15 UTC	3	$168	149	148	+0	Up	+$8	07-03 17:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 22:30 UTC	4	$162	127	127	+0	Up	+$36	07-02 22:34
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$158	757	0	+757	open	—	06-24 10:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 18:15 UTC	2	$157	225	225	+0	Down	-$113	07-04 18:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 23:15 UTC	4	$151	211	211	+0	Up	-$105	07-04 23:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 00:50 UTC	4	$148	113	113	+0	Down	+$18	07-03 00:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 00:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x01f74c…
10-24 00:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xf2a87e…
10-24 00:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xd3b670…
10-24 00:51:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x9d1971…
10-24 00:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x8384b7…
10-24 00:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x8e7357…
10-24 00:32:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x81f016…
10-24 00:32:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xe8bb39…
10-24 00:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x89b6b5…
10-24 00:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xe84e14…
10-24 00:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x0db4b4…
10-24 00:21:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x99f1d1…
10-24 00:20:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x7c9305…
10-24 00:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	14	84¢	$12	0x6f5292…
10-24 00:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x4012da…
10-24 00:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x804e3a…
10-24 00:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x52c44e…
10-24 00:06:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xbfd5ab…
10-23 23:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x36995c…
10-23 23:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x72b899…
10-23 23:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x3ba36e…
10-23 23:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5d54a2…
10-23 23:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x6ffa8c…
10-23 23:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xf61742…
10-23 23:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xb02d50…
10-23 23:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xaae722…
10-23 23:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xc9e5cd…
10-23 23:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x33cb66…
10-23 23:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xaa8937…
10-23 23:21:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xca6a6b…
10-23 23:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x14c642…
10-23 16:36:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0xc5498c…
10-23 16:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x65c013…
10-23 16:35:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x779191…
10-23 16:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	SELL	7	96¢	$6	0x09e7d2…
10-23 16:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x402e13…
10-23 16:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x621c8b…
10-23 16:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	13	59¢	$8	0xcdb29a…
10-23 16:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xe5e073…
10-23 16:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x1f5dce…
10-23 16:25:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x1bf98e…
10-23 16:20:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x686b63…
10-23 16:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x73ce46…
10-23 16:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0x39611c…
10-23 16:15:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x2d7abf…
10-23 16:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x1925e7…
10-23 16:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xa321e0…
10-23 16:06:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x741fe2…
10-23 16:06:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xa70523…
10-23 16:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x811d01…
10-23 16:06:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xe7a6af…
10-23 16:06:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x5f68a6…
10-23 16:06:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xd61371…
10-23 15:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x9bfa18…
10-23 15:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x0b1ad7…
10-23 15:50:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xb7ee7e…
10-23 15:47:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xdf1405…
10-23 15:47:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x85b9f5…
10-23 15:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xf66cb3…
10-22 19:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xc07633…
10-22 19:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xe3fc7a…
10-22 19:21:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0x977828…
10-22 19:20:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x7643c6…
10-22 19:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	15	86¢	$13	0x824142…
10-22 19:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xa0313e…
10-22 19:12:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd0ffe2…
10-22 19:10:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xa8ffb6…
10-22 19:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	SELL	9	73¢	$6	0x562e52…
10-22 19:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x186a51…
10-22 19:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x54f091…
10-22 19:02:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0x1ce636…
10-22 19:02:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x962584…
10-22 19:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	11	75¢	$8	0x663e7a…
10-22 19:02:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x1760f3…
10-22 19:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xcf0e73…
10-22 19:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x0ca309…
10-22 18:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xbc774e…
10-22 18:55:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x5ca3d3…
10-22 18:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	77¢	$6	0x32eb69…
10-22 18:50:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x67a65e…
10-22 18:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0xf8ca63…
10-22 18:42:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xfc0c9d…
10-22 18:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x785246…
10-22 18:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	51¢	$2	0xaded6b…
10-22 18:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x7b5473…
10-22 18:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	21	8¢	$2	0x7c318c…
10-22 18:38:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x3eda64…
10-22 18:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x6616a4…
10-22 18:37:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xb6581f…
10-22 18:37:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xc1197b…
10-22 18:37:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xeded82…
10-22 18:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	10	68¢	$6	0x14fc65…
10-22 18:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xa3a8de…
10-22 18:36:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x98a756…
10-22 18:35:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xba8d2e…
10-22 18:31:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x8cce38…
10-22 18:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xf462f1…
10-22 18:26:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x96a7b3…
10-22 18:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xad147d…
10-22 18:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xe3c5fd…