Capital-Mouth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$228

Unrealized P&L

+$18

Hit rate

63.5%

Resolved

Trades

19,450

lifetime

Volume

$845.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

$422

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 03:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

42% 60% $-42

Crypto

41% 100% +$159

Other

15% 67% $-344

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 426 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?	No		+505	$404	84¢	$422	+$18	07-19 14:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	322	$34.1K	80,231	75,647	+4,584	open	—	06-15 04:01
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	201	$34.0K	30,961	24,723	+6,238	open	—	03-27 03:55
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	431	$27.6K	53,961	51,686	+2,275	open	—	04-12 14:36
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	174	$25.2K	16,766	11,925	+4,842	open	—	04-23 18:07
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	216	$24.5K	46,971	40,866	+6,105	open	—	04-04 22:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	151	$20.6K	15,525	14,306	+1,220	open	—	04-21 22:54
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	128	$17.5K	32,678	33,057	-379	open	—	04-07 23:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	48	$8.4K	53,400	53,400	+0	open	—	02-28 20:42
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	29	$8.3K	8,016	5,523	+2,494	open	—	05-31 21:54
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	23	$7.4K	3,970	3,970	+0	open	—	07-13 12:50
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	73	$7.0K	6,303	5,232	+1,072	open	—	03-23 12:15
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	155	$6.7K	5,124	4,939	+186	open	—	03-23 11:44
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	80	$6.1K	4,779	4,491	+288	open	—	07-01 19:23
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	62	$5.7K	4,727	3,846	+881	open	—	05-15 23:05
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	24	$5.7K	3,472	3,472	+0	open	—	07-11 14:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	24	$5.3K	3,019	2,593	+427	open	—	05-23 00:39
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	101	$5.3K	6,601	4,420	+2,181	open	—	04-27 18:02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	53	$4.8K	4,296	4,501	-204	open	—	06-14 23:18
will kanye release bully by march 27	37	$4.7K	2,988	2,189	+799	open	—	03-28 06:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	30	$4.6K	5,889	4,832	+1,057	open	—	04-09 12:51
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	34	$4.6K	4,222	4,222	+0	open	—	06-17 10:20
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	25	$4.4K	3,332	1,776	+1,556	open	—	06-05 22:24
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	10	$4.3K	2,286	2,286	+0	open	—	04-25 15:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	21	$4.3K	2,777	2,777	+0	open	—	04-12 01:41
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	9	$4.1K	2,613	1,777	+836	open	—	07-19 22:01
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	23	$4.1K	2,687	2,687	+0	open	—	05-12 19:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	49	$4.0K	8,898	8,432	+466	open	—	05-02 05:31
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	28	$3.9K	2,348	2,348	+0	open	—	04-20 22:54
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	22	$3.9K	2,799	2,799	+0	open	—	04-11 11:23
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	23	$3.9K	2,836	2,725	+111	open	—	07-13 14:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 03:44:42	will elon post trump on x this week 20260710173822737	No	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0x791131…
07-19 23:53:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	333	95¢	$316	0x46ca84…
07-19 22:33:12	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	38	94¢	$35	0xfb8cbb…
07-19 22:32:30	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 7 2026 20260630182730885	Yes	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0xeab368…
07-19 22:29:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	116	94¢	$109	0xf07458…
07-19 22:27:01	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	105	94¢	$99	0x6fe4d3…
07-19 22:07:39	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0x749af3…
07-19 22:04:03	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 7 2026 20260630182730885	Yes	SELL	36	16¢	$6	0xabe76a…
07-19 22:01:57	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	SELL	666	100¢	$664	0x4a7e7d…
07-19 22:00:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	255	94¢	$241	0x95ea82…
07-19 22:00:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	522	94¢	$492	0xd40da0…
07-19 21:59:25	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	59	93¢	$55	0x427f9a…
07-19 21:58:34	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	SELL	1,111	94¢	$1,039	0xeec374…
07-19 21:57:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	191	94¢	$179	0xc89c6c…
07-19 21:57:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x8caf21…
07-19 21:57:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	888	94¢	$830	0x7e804f…
07-19 21:45:28	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	666	90¢	$601	0x3d4f13…
07-19 21:19:18	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	89	92¢	$82	0xc210cf…
07-19 21:19:18	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	244	92¢	$225	0x53f9f2…
07-19 21:06:24	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x7f757f…
07-19 20:31:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	222	88¢	$195	0x0f5e43…
07-19 20:24:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	111	88¢	$98	0x35b493…
07-19 19:04:12	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	275	90¢	$248	0xd7cf3e…
07-19 16:51:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xf791de…
07-19 16:50:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x3aee0c…
07-19 16:45:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x9c7c4a…
07-19 16:45:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x1489de…
07-19 16:23:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	321	87¢	$279	0xaefb26…
07-19 16:07:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0x803f71…
07-19 15:56:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	246	87¢	$214	0xec9c28…
07-19 15:40:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	22	87¢	$19	0xe91bad…
07-19 14:53:39	Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?	No	BUY	8	80¢	$7	0xad16f9…
07-19 12:36:31	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	51	73¢	$37	0x215a8b…
07-19 12:36:22	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x86b858…
07-19 09:37:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	76	95¢	$72	0xa50468…
07-19 09:36:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x2737a2…
07-19 09:22:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x709647…
07-19 09:20:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	131	95¢	$125	0x58024c…
07-19 09:19:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	SELL	129	100¢	$129	0xd5a17a…
07-19 09:19:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x287ea8…
07-19 09:19:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x7989d7…
07-19 09:19:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x4f39b3…
07-19 04:37:36	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	333	84¢	$280	0x0a29a2…
07-18 22:18:54	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	550	84¢	$462	0x995532…
07-18 10:33:12	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	666	86¢	$573	0x4a41a7…
07-18 09:50:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x3d6905…
07-18 04:29:09	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x6d3a1c…
07-18 03:53:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x2f3c17…
07-18 03:23:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	82	99¢	$81	0x847e66…
07-18 02:59:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	79	93¢	$74	0x1eceb5…
07-18 00:34:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	365	86¢	$313	0x072199…
07-17 23:21:28	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	51	99¢	$51	0xa651d6…
07-17 17:00:10	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x8abbac…
07-17 17:00:07	over 45m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325655	No	SELL	206	100¢	$206	0xea5549…
07-17 17:00:06	over 50m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325656	No	SELL	348	100¢	$348	0xe14958…
07-17 16:58:28	over 50m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325656	No	SELL	289	100¢	$288	0x408df9…
07-17 16:58:24	over 45m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325655	No	SELL	161	100¢	$160	0xd9cf26…
07-17 16:56:58	over 50m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325656	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x2c347b…
07-17 16:56:55	over 50m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325656	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd71705…
07-17 16:56:55	over 50m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325656	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8fc0e5…
07-17 16:56:54	over 50m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325656	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xcd0869…
07-17 16:56:54	over 50m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325656	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2f3a87…
07-17 16:50:19	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	27	82¢	$22	0x9e5e48…
07-17 16:50:00	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	29	80¢	$23	0x4b9806…
07-17 16:49:13	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	13	78¢	$10	0x53f5b9…
07-17 16:49:07	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xa78464…
07-17 16:49:06	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0x4c5587…
07-17 16:41:39	over 45m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325655	No	BUY	115	97¢	$112	0xe6a0a8…
07-17 16:36:03	over 50m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325656	No	BUY	900	98¢	$886	0x7a4111…
07-17 16:34:25	over 50m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325656	No	BUY	339	98¢	$333	0xcbf761…
07-17 16:33:18	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	72	79¢	$57	0xa38a9e…
07-17 16:23:24	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	104	80¢	$83	0x381118…
07-17 16:23:19	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x70e252…
07-17 15:53:48	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	135	98¢	$132	0x7d7707…
07-17 12:51:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	191	62¢	$119	0x62a081…
07-17 09:25:52	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xd0148b…
07-17 09:18:36	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0xc29c0f…
07-17 09:17:18	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	23	92¢	$21	0x63e681…
07-17 09:12:31	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	37	92¢	$34	0x50c2ac…
07-17 07:22:48	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	118	92¢	$108	0x68e7fd…
07-17 04:08:10	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	9	92¢	$8	0x247dde…
07-17 03:27:42	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x562e25…
07-17 02:22:30	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	160	61¢	$98	0xc08423…
07-17 02:21:12	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xce2349…
07-17 02:16:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xac76e9…
07-17 02:10:48	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x92c862…
07-17 02:08:51	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xf5b394…
07-17 01:57:21	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x8cab2e…
07-17 01:56:43	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x8faf26…
07-17 01:56:15	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x53aad0…
07-17 01:55:09	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0xe58618…
07-17 00:39:14	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	Yes	BUY	98	61¢	$60	0x9e0e20…
07-17 00:12:11	will trump say world cup during speech to the nation 20260713200621432	No	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0xa207e1…
07-16 23:49:55	will trump say world cup during speech to the nation 20260713200621432	No	SELL	22	76¢	$17	0x535767…
07-16 23:41:13	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	Yes	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x0ac762…
07-16 23:41:02	will trump say six seven during speech to the nation 20260713200621435	No	BUY	191	90¢	$172	0x35ea35…
07-16 23:24:40	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xda86a8…
07-16 22:52:34	will trump say world cup during speech to the nation 20260713200621432	No	SELL	4	74¢	$3	0x54db2f…
07-16 22:38:38	will trump say world cup during speech to the nation 20260713200621432	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x8e1d38…
07-16 22:25:52	will trump say world cup during speech to the nation 20260713200621432	No	SELL	34	65¢	$22	0xa96469…