Jolly-Endpoint — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$153

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

143

lifetime

Volume

$10.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$70

Open exposure

$105

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-02 21:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

61% 100% +$146

Other

39% 100% +$6

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+118	$110	89¢	$105	$-5	06-02 21:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	5	$502	248	270	-22	open	—	03-10 15:26
another us government shutdown by february 14	5	$455	502	356	+146	open	—	02-13 09:24
will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	3	$419	645	645	+0	open	—	02-28 11:51
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	5	$405	1,150	1,150	+0	open	—	03-28 12:25
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$306	155	155	+0	open	—	03-28 12:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$302	346	0	+346	open	—	03-28 12:28
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	2	$300	314	0	+314	open	—	02-11 20:29
mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	4	$298	1,238	108	+1,130	open	—	03-16 13:41
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	4	$297	152	152	+0	open	—	03-16 13:19
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	3	$291	299	0	+299	open	—	02-17 21:33
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	4	$291	147	147	+0	open	—	03-16 13:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$290	162	162	+0	open	—	01-16 17:35
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$269	278	0	+278	open	—	01-29 12:36
maduro trial scheduled by january 31	3	$243	123	123	+0	open	—	01-31 17:43
congress authorizes military force against venezuela by january 31	3	$241	122	122	+0	open	—	01-19 18:06
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$227	149	149	+0	open	—	03-04 18:26
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$225	126	126	+0	open	—	03-28 12:26
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	2	$217	110	110	+0	open	—	03-28 12:25
will henrique gouveia e melo win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$206	106	106	+0	open	—	02-05 17:46
will the dhs shutdown last 30 days or more 945 663	2	$206	106	106	+0	open	—	03-14 17:31
will the department of homeland security receive full year funding by february 28 2026	2	$206	107	107	+0	open	—	02-27 00:19
will the dhs shutdown last 14 days or more	2	$205	106	106	+0	open	—	02-27 00:18
will germany strike iran by march 31	2	$201	102	102	+0	open	—	03-28 12:25
tim walz charged by march 31	2	$186	107	107	+0	open	—	01-17 09:12
will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota by june 30	3	$167	150	150	+0	open	—	02-08 21:40
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$164	180	0	+180	open	—	04-03 13:45
will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election in the lisbon district	2	$151	121	121	+0	open	—	01-18 15:51
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	2	$150	92	92	+0	open	—	03-07 01:50
will khamenei leave iran by friday	3	$130	130	0	+130	open	—	01-09 14:07
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$122	127	0	+127	open	—	01-19 18:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 21:04:07	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	118	93¢	$110	0xd5df8c…
05-22 17:09:55	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x25b38c…
05-22 17:06:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x932f93…
04-03 13:45:05	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	66	97¢	$64	0xc09bcd…
04-03 13:41:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x8c4472…
03-29 06:33:20	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	114	87¢	$100	0x43f475…
03-28 12:28:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xf43f56…
03-28 12:26:59	SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xc8d0ae…
03-28 12:26:27	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0xa430ce…
03-28 12:26:15	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	155	99¢	$154	0x1d6b00…
03-28 12:26:03	israel and saudi arabia normalize relations by march 31	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x37c673…
03-28 12:25:49	will germany strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	102	100¢	$101	0xcfd6e9…
03-28 12:25:35	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	SELL	112	100¢	$112	0x38269a…
03-28 12:25:23	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	110	100¢	$109	0xcfa988…
03-16 13:41:57	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,009	9¢	$89	0x4e88de…
03-16 13:39:51	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	121	8¢	$10	0x8000e9…
03-16 13:38:13	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	108	92¢	$99	0xee0e3d…
03-16 13:33:33	SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xac6a41…
03-16 13:26:35	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by march 31	Yes	SELL	182	4¢	$7	0xf31d72…
03-16 13:21:33	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x9ca813…
03-16 13:21:09	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x5a94cc…
03-16 13:20:47	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	147	99¢	$147	0x118eb4…
03-16 13:19:47	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	155	97¢	$151	0xd0eb21…
03-16 13:19:27	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	No	SELL	152	100¢	$151	0x0c0e3f…
03-14 17:32:25	us iran nuclear deal by march 31	No	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0x10c965…
03-14 17:31:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xd47915…
03-14 17:31:25	will the dhs shutdown last 30 days or more 945 663	Yes	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0xf54d17…
03-13 19:02:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x324e7b…
03-11 10:01:27	israel and saudi arabia normalize relations by march 31	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x918345…
03-10 15:32:27	will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$100	0x9fc053…
03-10 15:29:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	46	88¢	$40	0x45eb8b…
03-10 15:28:13	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x37eb14…
03-10 15:26:49	Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	SELL	270	100¢	$270	0x8c6f27…
03-09 11:35:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	76	81¢	$61	0xc22983…
03-07 12:23:55	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	29	77¢	$22	0x7cfcca…
03-07 12:23:01	will germany strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x3d3805…
03-07 01:52:03	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	118	76¢	$90	0x52e9a6…
03-07 01:50:35	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	SELL	92	98¢	$90	0x4f37a2…
03-06 15:03:59	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x30ee6c…
03-06 10:07:49	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	No	BUY	110	99¢	$108	0x0b60ee…
03-05 15:55:09	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	BUY	61	96¢	$59	0xe01290…
03-05 15:54:39	will the dhs shutdown last 30 days or more 945 663	Yes	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x451342…
03-05 15:54:15	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 5 748 625	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xd8dc20…
03-05 15:53:47	will brazil join the board of peace	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x2e675d…
03-04 18:29:23	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	120	98¢	$118	0x8aafba…
03-04 18:26:47	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	149	79¢	$117	0x75923b…
03-04 09:59:11	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	149	74¢	$110	0xcaa944…
03-02 23:04:45	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	BUY	92	65¢	$60	0x5bd9fd…
03-02 23:02:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x1d8ccb…
03-02 18:37:39	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x317cfb…
03-01 18:34:41	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0xae8c43…
03-01 18:34:33	us iran nuclear deal by march 31	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x340819…
03-01 18:33:35	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	126	79¢	$100	0xa5b0ba…
03-01 16:55:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 2	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x4cd3a4…
02-28 18:14:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	17¢	$30	0xfeea92…
02-28 18:11:13	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x7bf3f8…
02-28 17:47:41	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xb5d2ca…
02-28 17:47:29	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	Yes	SELL	1,037	9¢	$91	0xfe2bb2…
02-28 17:46:53	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	Yes	BUY	1,037	10¢	$100	0xd9b257…
02-28 17:11:35	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	SELL	85	24¢	$20	0xaf01d4…
02-28 11:51:31	will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	Yes	SELL	645	34¢	$219	0x31bb89…
02-27 00:20:50	will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	Yes	BUY	323	31¢	$100	0x1bb823…
02-27 00:19:42	will the department of homeland security receive full year funding by february 28 2026	No	SELL	107	100¢	$106	0x79664e…
02-27 00:18:48	will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	Yes	BUY	323	31¢	$100	0x133f4c…
02-27 00:18:06	will the dhs shutdown last 14 days or more	Yes	SELL	106	100¢	$105	0xd76eb3…
02-19 09:10:30	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xed9bf8…
02-18 09:11:28	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	76	82¢	$62	0x177774…
02-18 09:11:04	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x2f2ee2…
02-18 09:08:38	will the department of homeland security receive full year funding by february 28 2026	No	BUY	107	94¢	$100	0x8fbde4…
02-17 21:33:41	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x23f683…
02-17 20:54:31	will the dhs shutdown last 14 days or more	Yes	BUY	106	95¢	$100	0x2ca44d…
02-13 09:24:09	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	BUY	146	69¢	$100	0xe97b0c…
02-13 09:23:29	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	SELL	356	31¢	$112	0xb1b54a…
02-11 20:29:31	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xc08766…
02-11 17:34:17	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x4b81ff…
02-09 11:01:21	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x7117fd…
02-08 23:29:41	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	49	96¢	$47	0x9c4818…
02-08 21:40:27	will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota by june 30	Yes	SELL	150	31¢	$47	0x79c5e4…
02-05 17:47:17	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	153	70¢	$106	0x09689c…
02-05 17:46:39	will henrique gouveia e melo win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0xbeb21e…
02-04 18:14:03	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	68	54¢	$37	0xced2f7…
02-04 18:13:29	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	24	74¢	$18	0x569ded…
02-01 10:38:48	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xb5a9fb…
01-31 17:44:52	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	147	98¢	$144	0xdefa13…
01-31 17:44:02	Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x34e000…
01-31 17:43:42	maduro trial scheduled by january 31	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x4b807d…
01-29 12:36:16	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	128	99¢	$127	0xde834b…
01-22 10:25:14	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0xae2f37…
01-19 18:09:10	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0xb123f7…
01-19 18:07:16	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x73a641…
01-19 18:06:42	congress authorizes military force against venezuela by january 31	No	SELL	122	99¢	$121	0x79293d…
01-18 15:53:52	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xc9c8a4…
01-18 15:51:22	will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election in the lisbon district	Yes	SELL	121	42¢	$51	0xe759c4…
01-17 09:14:58	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	90	96¢	$87	0x57c042…
01-17 09:12:14	tim walz charged by march 31	No	SELL	107	81¢	$86	0x6ae58d…
01-16 17:37:56	will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election in the lisbon district	Yes	BUY	121	83¢	$100	0x212c5b…
01-16 17:37:18	will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x46d3f4…
01-16 17:35:32	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	SELL	162	93¢	$150	0x78d86f…
01-10 11:29:08	will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota	No	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0x97c0f4…
01-10 11:26:52	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x5811c1…