Surprised-Instrument — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$19.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.30K

Hit rate

26.8%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

420

964 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$59.8K

$120.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

$125

Open exposure

$4.47K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-30 07:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 24% -$1,315

Other

36% 27% -$24,690

Politics

6% 43% -$588

Sports

0% 33% -$37

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 147 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+10,714	$3,000	41¢	$4.4K	+$1,393	10-24 18:42
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+3,400	$161	2¢	$66	-$95	10-18 21:49
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+21	$10	42¢	$9	-$1	10-19 09:30
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+16	$5	24¢	$4	-$1	10-19 03:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:20 UTC	11	$8.6K	8,575	8,004	+571	Down	+$7,765	04-10 12:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:25 UTC	12	$7.2K	6,984	6,528	+455	Up	+$6,317	04-10 12:31
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24?	2	$5.0K	20,948	0	+20,948	No	-$5,000	05-24 20:17
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	9	$4.4K	160,067	0	+160,067	No	-$4,362	10-24 17:55
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	1	$3.8K	33,871	0	+33,871	No	-$3,850	10-28 18:55
Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	2	$3.8K	21,256	7,652	+13,604	No	-$1,074	10-28 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	19	$3.1K	35,565	3,424	+32,141	Up	+$181	10-20 22:39
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$3.0K	10,714	0	+10,714	open	—	10-24 18:42
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	8	$2.7K	62,175	0	+62,175	No	-$2,652	10-28 21:22
Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 0 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	2	$2.3K	23,441	0	+23,441	No	-$2,300	10-21 20:02
Will Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?	2	$2.2K	9,012	0	+9,012	No	-$2,200	10-25 15:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	11	$2.2K	2,093	2,093	+0	Up	+$697	10-30 01:29
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	1	$2.0K	2,667	0	+2,667	No	+$667	01-14 18:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	3	$2.0K	1,818	1,818	+0	Down	+$1,600	10-28 09:30
Exact Score: Venezia FC 1 - 3 FC Internazionale Milano?	2	$1.7K	20,341	0	+20,341	No	-$1,728	10-28 17:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 13:00 UTC	14	$1.7K	8,870	0	+8,870	Down	-$1,690	04-10 13:04
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-25?	4	$1.6K	33,004	0	+33,004	No	-$1,584	10-25 15:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:45 UTC	14	$1.5K	3,952	1,005	+2,947	Up	-$94	04-10 12:49
Exact Score: Udinese Calcio 0 - 3 AC Milan?	1	$1.5K	13,105	0	+13,105	No	-$1,500	10-25 20:18
Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 Bologna FC 1909?	3	$1.5K	10,784	10,784	+0	No	+$388	10-28 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	33	$1.5K	11,344	0	+11,344	Down	-$1,355	10-30 07:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	8	$1.4K	40,342	1,662	+38,680	Down	+$170	10-20 22:35
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-25?	1	$1.4K	9,643	0	+9,643	Yes	+$8,293	10-25 13:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:55 UTC	12	$1.3K	4,548	286	+4,262	Up	-$888	04-10 12:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	20	$1.3K	11,260	0	+11,260	Down	-$1,309	10-28 10:58
Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	3	$1.2K	5,762	0	+5,762	No	-$1,220	10-28 18:15
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$1.2K	736	736	+0	No	-$7	04-09 16:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 21:10 UTC	12	$1.2K	1,880	555	+1,324	Up	+$325	04-11 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	10	$1.2K	4,735	647	+4,087	Down	-$149	10-20 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	12	$1.2K	12,291	297	+11,994	Up	-$814	10-20 22:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 07:53:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x06b4b0…
10-30 07:53:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xc9cbcf…
10-30 07:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	417	6¢	$25	0x1ded0d…
10-30 07:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	142	4¢	$5	0xab0b56…
10-30 07:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x9c00eb…
10-30 07:53:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0x989b2a…
10-30 07:53:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x16cca5…
10-30 07:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0x2bd7eb…
10-30 07:52:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	680	14¢	$96	0x0849b3…
10-30 07:52:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	649	15¢	$100	0xf9f76a…
10-30 07:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	435	23¢	$100	0x0a3e1a…
10-30 07:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	453	22¢	$100	0x8e989f…
10-30 07:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0x30d066…
10-30 07:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x61cd5c…
10-30 07:51:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	458	22¢	$100	0x748df6…
10-30 07:51:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x211124…
10-30 07:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	139	18¢	$25	0x87c91d…
10-30 07:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	141	18¢	$25	0x4f5af2…
10-30 07:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	120	21¢	$25	0xb87b78…
10-30 07:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	87	20¢	$18	0x521d53…
10-30 07:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xa632b6…
10-30 07:51:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x413895…
10-30 07:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x0f2baa…
10-30 07:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xe4def1…
10-30 07:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xe2d691…
10-30 07:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x8a1c4a…
10-30 07:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xded876…
10-30 07:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x961b12…
10-30 07:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xbcc886…
10-30 07:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xa2ab87…
10-30 07:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x821d64…
10-30 07:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x0f7a8b…
10-30 07:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xace560…
10-30 07:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xcb11bf…
10-30 07:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x4d63ea…
10-30 07:47:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	625	4¢	$25	0x8e3e53…
10-30 07:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x5a0116…
10-30 07:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	417	6¢	$25	0xb4419d…
10-30 07:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x1e8b04…
10-30 07:46:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0xe554c3…
10-30 07:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x1ef46f…
10-30 07:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x0d88e8…
10-30 07:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x9d723c…
10-30 07:42:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x7e6505…
10-30 07:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x66dfec…
10-30 07:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xd0d7db…
10-30 07:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x2db762…
10-30 07:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x70f736…
10-30 07:42:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x0b4f4a…
10-30 07:41:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x4bec59…
10-30 07:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0x9678ea…
10-30 07:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0x98972b…
10-30 07:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x745062…
10-30 07:41:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	323	31¢	$100	0x2c4fb8…
10-30 07:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0xf2b53c…
10-30 07:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0xbb269b…
10-30 07:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0x8339c3…
10-30 07:40:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	110	23¢	$25	0x20009b…
10-30 07:40:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x43c1f5…
10-30 07:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x6543bf…
10-30 01:29:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1,400	96¢	$1,344	0x45e5e4…
10-30 01:28:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	692	15¢	$102	0x3ef981…
10-30 01:27:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	692	14¢	$100	0xf6235c…
10-30 01:26:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x7006b5…
10-30 01:26:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0xe7c54b…
10-30 01:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0xbba1c9…
10-30 01:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	65	39¢	$25	0x271da3…
10-30 01:26:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	292	34¢	$100	0x357f2f…
10-30 01:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x1170e8…
10-30 01:25:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	252	40¢	$100	0x0f9a69…
10-30 01:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x719b69…
10-28 22:34:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3,779	1¢	$25	0x6e80f5…
10-28 22:33:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5,195	0¢	$25	0xdaf9cb…
10-28 22:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x354ce1…
10-28 22:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2,256	1¢	$25	0xe143a4…
10-28 22:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xb38dcf…
10-28 22:32:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3,808	2¢	$62	0xb07800…
10-28 22:32:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1,616	2¢	$38	0x78a663…
10-28 22:31:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	465	4¢	$19	0x6490f9…
10-28 22:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1,074	9¢	$100	0xab85ed…
10-28 22:31:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	535	19¢	$100	0xf14bf5…
10-28 22:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	476	21¢	$100	0xbc9075…
10-28 22:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0x428237…
10-28 22:30:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0xc623d8…
10-28 22:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xd6bdae…
10-28 21:33:07	Will Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2,500	2¢	$50	0x536c6c…
10-28 21:32:13	Will Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11,103	3¢	$300	0xa89d3e…
10-28 21:22:14	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	10,937	2¢	$225	0x8508f9…
10-28 21:21:44	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	4,528	2¢	$100	0xca7607…
10-28 21:21:35	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	4,513	2¢	$100	0x4ec925…
10-28 21:21:04	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	7,565	3¢	$210	0xdd1e0d…
10-28 21:20:29	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	3,436	2¢	$66	0xb645ba…
10-28 21:20:17	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	2,529	2¢	$50	0xd88d61…
10-28 21:20:08	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	10,466	2¢	$200	0xd86474…
10-28 20:54:59	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	18,202	9¢	$1,701	0xdc25ec…
10-28 18:55:31	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	33,871	11¢	$3,850	0xe6efd3…
10-28 18:15:01	Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	909	22¢	$200	0xbd47b0…
10-28 18:14:38	Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 2 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	1,111	13¢	$150	0x4ea82b…
10-28 18:14:20	Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x2e0f9f…
10-28 18:13:37	Exact Score: AC Milan 4 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	3,027	10¢	$300	0x9fe3cd…