Surprised-Instrument — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$32.6K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.35K

Hit rate

31.5%

Resolved

179

Trades

1,016

lifetime

Volume

$128.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$126

Open exposure

$4.52K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-31 23:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Crypto

57% 24% -$2,098

Other

38% 25% -$29,832

Politics

6% 43% -$588

Sports

0% 33% -$37

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 147 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+10,714	$3,000	42¢	$4.4K	+$1,446	10-24 18:42
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+3,400	$161	2¢	$65	-$96	10-18 21:49
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+21	$10	41¢	$8	-$2	10-19 09:30
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+16	$5	20¢	$3	-$2	10-19 03:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:20 UTC	11	$8.6K	8,575	8,004	+571	Down	+$7,765	04-10 12:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:25 UTC	12	$7.2K	6,984	6,528	+455	Up	+$6,317	04-10 12:31
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24?	2	$5.0K	20,948	0	+20,948	No	-$5,000	05-24 20:17
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	9	$4.4K	160,067	0	+160,067	No	-$4,362	10-24 17:55
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	1	$3.8K	33,871	0	+33,871	No	-$3,850	10-28 18:55
Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	2	$3.8K	21,256	7,652	+13,604	No	-$1,074	10-28 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	19	$3.1K	35,565	3,424	+32,141	Up	+$181	10-20 22:39
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$3.0K	10,714	0	+10,714	open	—	10-24 18:42
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	8	$2.7K	62,175	0	+62,175	No	-$2,652	10-28 21:22
Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 0 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	2	$2.3K	23,441	0	+23,441	No	-$2,300	10-21 20:02
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	5	$2.2K	17,136	0	+17,136	No	-$2,206	10-31 20:35
Will Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?	2	$2.2K	9,012	0	+9,012	No	-$2,200	10-25 15:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	11	$2.2K	2,093	2,093	+0	Up	+$697	10-30 01:29
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	1	$2.0K	2,667	0	+2,667	No	+$667	01-14 18:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	3	$2.0K	1,818	1,818	+0	Down	+$1,600	10-28 09:30
Exact Score: Venezia FC 1 - 3 FC Internazionale Milano?	2	$1.7K	20,341	0	+20,341	No	-$1,728	10-28 17:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 13:00 UTC	14	$1.7K	8,870	0	+8,870	Down	-$1,690	04-10 13:04
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-25?	4	$1.6K	33,004	0	+33,004	No	-$1,584	10-25 15:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:45 UTC	14	$1.5K	3,952	1,005	+2,947	Up	-$94	04-10 12:49
Exact Score: Udinese Calcio 0 - 3 AC Milan?	1	$1.5K	13,105	0	+13,105	No	-$1,500	10-25 20:18
Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 Bologna FC 1909?	3	$1.5K	10,784	10,784	+0	No	+$388	10-28 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	33	$1.5K	11,344	0	+11,344	Down	-$1,355	10-30 07:53
Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 1 FC Internazionale Milano?	1	$1.4K	16,631	0	+16,631	No	-$1,426	10-31 17:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	8	$1.4K	40,342	1,662	+38,680	Down	+$170	10-20 22:35
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-25?	1	$1.4K	9,643	0	+9,643	Yes	+$8,293	10-25 13:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:55 UTC	12	$1.3K	4,548	286	+4,262	Up	-$888	04-10 12:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	20	$1.3K	11,260	0	+11,260	Down	-$1,309	10-28 10:58
Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	3	$1.2K	5,762	0	+5,762	No	-$1,220	10-28 18:15
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$1.2K	736	736	+0	No	-$7	04-09 16:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 21:10 UTC	12	$1.2K	1,880	555	+1,324	Up	+$325	04-11 21:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 23:29:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xcbad57…
10-31 23:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x885ec7…
10-31 23:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	277	9¢	$25	0xbd6ce2…
10-31 23:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	410	6¢	$25	0x80f9f4…
10-31 23:28:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	596	4¢	$25	0x87ee1c…
10-31 23:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	354	6¢	$23	0xf41024…
10-31 23:28:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x5bbc40…
10-31 23:28:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x4e1995…
10-31 23:28:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xcdfbe9…
10-31 23:28:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x8fec20…
10-31 23:28:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xbedf2f…
10-31 23:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	132	19¢	$25	0xd1e578…
10-31 23:27:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	556	18¢	$100	0xe17c3a…
10-31 23:27:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0x327cb3…
10-31 23:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	226	44¢	$100	0xdb9824…
10-31 23:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xfde097…
10-31 23:27:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x696453…
10-31 23:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	226	44¢	$100	0xfaca53…
10-31 23:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	326	31¢	$100	0x35e257…
10-31 23:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x6a8b33…
10-31 23:27:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0x3d4ef9…
10-31 23:27:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	802	12¢	$100	0x919615…
10-31 23:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x595068…
10-31 23:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x24f04f…
10-31 23:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	306	8¢	$25	0xc75634…
10-31 23:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	357	7¢	$25	0xa0f366…
10-31 23:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1,053	9¢	$100	0xf8158f…
10-31 23:22:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	694	14¢	$100	0x0d6294…
10-31 23:22:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x8c349d…
10-31 23:21:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0xad5dfb…
10-31 23:21:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	85	29¢	$25	0x7eeff5…
10-31 23:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0xdc8b7c…
10-31 23:20:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0x73e98f…
10-31 23:20:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	323	31¢	$100	0x796939…
10-31 23:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	306	33¢	$100	0x83047e…
10-31 23:20:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	316	32¢	$100	0xefd708…
10-31 23:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x3a5b03…
10-31 23:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2,404	1¢	$25	0xd575f7…
10-31 23:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1,036	2¢	$25	0x880223…
10-31 23:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	395	25¢	$100	0xa7e7b5…
10-31 23:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	421	24¢	$100	0x572907…
10-31 20:35:07	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	3,333	9¢	$300	0x9adbc1…
10-31 20:34:57	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	10¢	$200	0x48f931…
10-31 20:30:48	Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 4 FC Internazionale Milano?	Yes	BUY	793	4¢	$30	0x76185e…
10-31 20:29:16	Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 3 FC Internazionale Milano?	Yes	BUY	10,142	10¢	$1,000	0x09d53e…
10-31 20:28:21	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	21	27¢	$6	0x573699…
10-31 20:27:46	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	2,692	26¢	$700	0x3175b0…
10-31 20:07:10	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	9,089	11¢	$1,000	0xbb6ceb…
10-31 17:22:57	Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 FC Internazionale Milano?	Yes	BUY	4,810	10¢	$481	0x5cae1b…
10-31 17:21:37	Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 1 FC Internazionale Milano?	Yes	BUY	16,631	9¢	$1,426	0x369e71…
10-31 16:11:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x93b45b…
10-31 16:11:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xfd6722…
10-30 07:53:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x06b4b0…
10-30 07:53:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xc9cbcf…
10-30 07:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	417	6¢	$25	0x1ded0d…
10-30 07:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	142	4¢	$5	0xab0b56…
10-30 07:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x9c00eb…
10-30 07:53:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0x989b2a…
10-30 07:53:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x16cca5…
10-30 07:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0x2bd7eb…
10-30 07:52:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	680	14¢	$96	0x0849b3…
10-30 07:52:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	649	15¢	$100	0xf9f76a…
10-30 07:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	435	23¢	$100	0x0a3e1a…
10-30 07:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	453	22¢	$100	0x8e989f…
10-30 07:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0x30d066…
10-30 07:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x61cd5c…
10-30 07:51:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	458	22¢	$100	0x748df6…
10-30 07:51:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x211124…
10-30 07:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	139	18¢	$25	0x87c91d…
10-30 07:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	141	18¢	$25	0x4f5af2…
10-30 07:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	120	21¢	$25	0xb87b78…
10-30 07:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	87	20¢	$18	0x521d53…
10-30 07:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xa632b6…
10-30 07:51:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x413895…
10-30 07:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x0f2baa…
10-30 07:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xe4def1…
10-30 07:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xe2d691…
10-30 07:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x8a1c4a…
10-30 07:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xded876…
10-30 07:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x961b12…
10-30 07:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xbcc886…
10-30 07:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xa2ab87…
10-30 07:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x821d64…
10-30 07:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x0f7a8b…
10-30 07:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xace560…
10-30 07:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xcb11bf…
10-30 07:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x4d63ea…
10-30 07:47:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	625	4¢	$25	0x8e3e53…
10-30 07:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x5a0116…
10-30 07:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	417	6¢	$25	0xb4419d…
10-30 07:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x1e8b04…
10-30 07:46:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0xe554c3…
10-30 07:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x1ef46f…
10-30 07:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x0d88e8…
10-30 07:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x9d723c…
10-30 07:42:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x7e6505…
10-30 07:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x66dfec…
10-30 07:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xd0d7db…
10-30 07:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x2db762…
10-30 07:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x70f736…