Familiar-Offset — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$64

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

39.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$374

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 09-06 12:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 35% -$59

Other

14% 64% -$6

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Politics

1% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	09-06 12:18
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+3	$2	78¢	$2	+$0	06-11 08:05
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	+2	$2	10¢	$0	-$2	04-28 15:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	2	$65	94	0	+94	Up	-$4	05-19 09:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	1	$50	51	0	+51	Down	+$1	05-19 09:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	5	$25	94	0	+94	Down	-$25	05-19 09:43
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:00 UTC	3	$17	26	11	+15	Up	+$5	04-03 16:03
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 15:55 UTC	4	$15	16	15	+1	Down	+$4	04-03 15:59
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:20 UTC	4	$15	100	0	+100	Down	-$15	04-04 14:23
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	3	$15	47	0	+47	Up	-$15	04-28 15:23
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:40 UTC	3	$14	41	31	+10	Down	+$14	04-04 14:44
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	1	$10	45	0	+45	Down	-$10	04-28 15:31
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	2	$10	39	0	+39	Down	-$10	05-19 08:05
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	1	$10	13	0	+13	Down	-$10	04-29 12:15
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:05 UTC	7	$9	70	0	+70	Down	-$9	04-03 16:07
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:30 UTC	4	$9	37	0	+37	Down	-$9	04-04 14:31
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:45 UTC	5	$8	137	0	+137	Up	-$8	04-04 14:48
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:50 UTC	3	$7	18	0	+18	Up	-$7	04-04 14:52
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:25 UTC	1	$5	15	0	+15	Down	+$10	04-04 14:26
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	1	$5	7	0	+7	No	-$5	08-16 08:16
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$5	12	0	+12	Spain	-$5	07-19 12:41
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	1	$5	11	0	+11	Argentina	+$6	07-12 12:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 07:55 UTC	1	$5	33	0	+33	Up	-$5	06-11 07:57
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	1	$5	26	0	+26	Up	+$21	04-28 15:19
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	1	$5	8	0	+8	Spain	-$5	07-12 12:05
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	-$5	04-28 15:11
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	+$1	06-23 13:08
dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16	1	$5	7	0	+7	Team Yandex	+$2	08-16 08:16
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	+$1	05-19 08:00
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	04-28 15:00
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	09-06 12:18
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	4	$4	33	0	+33	Down	-$4	05-19 09:48
Diddy released from custody in 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	06-11 08:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-06 12:18:57	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7cd070…
08-16 08:16:39	Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xc91f0e…
08-16 08:16:22	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16	Team Yandex	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x55d8fd…
07-19 12:41:45	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x2b3878…
07-12 12:06:01	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x198fe5…
07-12 12:05:25	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x171651…
06-23 13:08:58	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x40d7e9…
06-11 08:08:36	Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs get engaged in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x4c5fb3…
06-11 08:08:21	Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xff53fe…
06-11 08:07:09	Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x874e00…
06-11 08:06:09	Diddy released from custody in 2026?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xf3420b…
06-11 08:05:15	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xfe38f3…
06-11 07:57:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 07:55 UTC	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x52c49b…
06-11 07:55:31	will spacexs high share price on its first day of trading hit 150 high 20260608191407797	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xee95e3…
05-19 09:48:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x9499d1…
05-19 09:48:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xcd94c6…
05-19 09:48:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe12b5f…
05-19 09:46:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x244969…
05-19 09:43:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x780b35…
05-19 09:43:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x6ed032…
05-19 09:40:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x269439…
05-19 09:40:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xfdf2a0…
05-19 09:40:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xbb7fa4…
05-19 09:39:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0xecb3e6…
05-19 09:38:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x33bbdb…
05-19 09:17:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x98366b…
05-19 08:05:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x85d01e…
05-19 08:05:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x92fac8…
05-19 08:04:34	Will Trump say "China" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x547d87…
05-19 08:02:28	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xdafbfb…
05-19 08:00:53	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xa9049f…
04-29 12:15:34	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x7f8be7…
04-28 15:31:00	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x84db38…
04-28 15:23:08	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x22cb19…
04-28 15:22:56	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xae6fed…
04-28 15:22:26	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xcbc5f8…
04-28 15:19:32	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xa562bf…
04-28 15:11:44	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xb4b6c7…
04-28 15:02:18	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x5ef652…
04-28 15:00:50	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc732e5…
04-04 14:56:17	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x771e64…
04-04 14:52:11	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:50 UTC	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x88068a…
04-04 14:52:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xce2d40…
04-04 14:50:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:50 UTC	Down	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x1992b6…
04-04 14:48:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x59e2ae…
04-04 14:46:29	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xab7e89…
04-04 14:46:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x12567a…
04-04 14:46:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x86a2c9…
04-04 14:45:23	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x5b2858…
04-04 14:44:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x6ddb9e…
04-04 14:43:29	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:40 UTC	Up	SELL	31	32¢	$10	0x57295b…
04-04 14:43:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:40 UTC	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc4b77a…
04-04 14:37:31	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:35 UTC	Down	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xf1afee…
04-04 14:31:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xf5d89b…
04-04 14:30:59	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xea119d…
04-04 14:30:49	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x858d15…
04-04 14:30:35	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x416cef…
04-04 14:26:27	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:25 UTC	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xe5001c…
04-04 14:23:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x7af7ad…
04-04 14:22:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	43	9¢	$4	0x963262…
04-04 14:21:55	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x045bc1…
04-04 14:21:37	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x19e9eb…
04-04 14:18:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x23399f…
04-03 16:07:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x92085e…
04-03 16:07:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x152503…
04-03 16:06:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xeb8992…
04-03 16:06:45	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb7a80f…
04-03 16:05:49	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x53620a…
04-03 16:05:41	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xe1e4f3…
04-03 16:05:31	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x5a92de…
04-03 16:03:23	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x083960…
04-03 16:03:01	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:00 UTC	Up	SELL	11	94¢	$11	0x34d348…
04-03 16:00:27	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x22863e…
04-03 15:59:59	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 15:55 UTC	Down	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0x86125f…
04-03 15:57:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 15:55 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x280c4a…
04-03 15:57:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 15:55 UTC	Up	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x7a2c0f…
04-03 15:55:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 15:55 UTC	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd25810…
04-03 15:52:29	highest temperature in ankara on april 4 2026 12corhigher	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xf8c872…
04-03 15:48:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xe69d6f…