Ethical-Hippopotamus — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$821

Unrealized P&L

-$1.50K

Hit rate

46.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,939

lifetime

Volume

$1.46M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$495

Open exposure

$10.2K

5 positions

First seen

2026-04-04

last 07-02 10:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

81% 33% +$821

Other

16% — —

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 191 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+15,539	$4,817	28¢	$4.3K	$-544	07-01 14:23
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-3,000	$-2,826	97¢	$-2921	$-95	05-31 12:16
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+10,000	$2,000	16¢	$1.6K	$-350	06-24 02:06
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	-1,326	$-1,846	98¢	$-1295	+$551	07-02 16:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	+30,192	$1,170	0¢	$106	$-1,064	07-02 15:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	208	$175.6K	216,394	90,564	+125,830	open	—	06-17 00:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	94	$98.9K	60,903	75,178	-14,275	open	—	06-14 19:36
us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	60	$86.5K	55,132	51,116	+4,015	open	—	06-16 13:24
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	51	$86.1K	103,008	46,956	+56,052	open	—	07-01 14:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	75	$67.5K	40,260	32,000	+8,260	open	—	06-07 21:21
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	73	$61.2K	33,958	33,958	+0	open	—	06-26 18:22
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	48	$58.8K	31,893	31,893	+0	open	—	04-22 17:03
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	83	$54.0K	40,409	20,858	+19,551	open	—	07-02 10:56
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	210	$48.6K	58,557	0	+58,557	open	—	04-20 21:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	14	$48.4K	14,771	37,771	-23,000	open	—	06-16 02:46
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	101	$45.4K	25,073	25,073	+0	open	—	04-23 17:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	51	$45.3K	26,840	26,840	+0	open	—	04-28 07:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	269	$43.5K	1,010,011	10,000	+1,000,011	open	—	04-24 11:07
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	39	$42.7K	29,277	29,443	-166	open	—	04-15 21:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	151	$38.6K	75,598	35,435	+40,163	open	—	07-02 15:37
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	252	$37.3K	286,229	66,926	+219,303	open	—	06-26 12:21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	75	$35.8K	57,000	57,000	+0	open	—	04-28 16:38
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	37	$31.4K	35,000	35,000	+0	open	—	05-07 08:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	25	$26.6K	14,568	14,568	+0	open	—	05-09 10:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	45	$22.8K	32,567	17,027	+15,539	open	—	07-01 14:23
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	78	$22.5K	12,058	12,058	+0	open	—	07-02 16:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	33	$21.6K	14,814	14,814	+0	open	—	04-26 16:52
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	38	$19.4K	32,544	0	+32,544	Yes	+$13,143	04-28 09:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	29	$19.1K	13,627	13,627	+0	open	—	04-27 18:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	10	$17.5K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	04-24 16:09
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	14	$16.2K	12,093	12,093	+0	open	—	06-12 19:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	24	$15.3K	18,223	0	+18,223	open	—	05-18 13:12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	44	$13.4K	18,000	18,000	+0	No	$-12,322	05-02 09:18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	21	$13.2K	4,080	10,585	-6,505	open	—	06-20 14:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$12.7K	20,000	20,000	+0	open	—	04-12 13:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 16:33:23	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$25	0xcb68c3…
07-02 16:33:23	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	599	98¢	$587	0x02e8ff…
07-02 16:23:58	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	98¢	$16	0x8f982c…
07-02 16:11:20	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x2aa6ba…
07-02 16:10:14	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x48b812…
07-02 16:10:11	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	345	98¢	$338	0x6a6ee6…
07-02 16:08:28	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	98¢	$20	0x69da9d…
07-02 16:06:59	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	98¢	$19	0x1e1e52…
07-02 15:59:25	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0xaca688…
07-02 15:59:11	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0x66a0bd…
07-02 15:57:40	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	98¢	$33	0x8d70ed…
07-02 15:37:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5,563	0¢	$22	0x3f97b2…
07-02 15:32:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	327	0¢	$1	0x1aace8…
07-02 15:06:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xf31d68…
07-02 15:01:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	583	0¢	$2	0x2fb0ab…
07-02 14:58:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x8a3119…
07-02 14:50:53	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x010e1c…
07-02 14:49:53	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xf88959…
07-02 14:49:02	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x8858e4…
07-02 14:47:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	165	0¢	$1	0x07a622…
07-02 14:42:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$2	0xf1d771…
07-02 14:36:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	130	0¢	$1	0xf83a95…
07-02 14:36:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0xcfe393…
07-02 14:36:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	135	0¢	$1	0x2c2eac…
07-02 14:36:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	4,428	0¢	$18	0x763658…
07-02 14:33:46	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x116189…
07-02 14:30:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x714f96…
07-02 14:29:56	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0xe5c35a…
07-02 14:28:19	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x9c44e7…
07-02 14:21:55	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x6ecc0b…
07-02 14:17:46	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x301170…
07-02 14:17:08	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0xc5d3c3…
07-02 14:07:25	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x751525…
07-02 14:06:19	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x54c8a3…
07-02 14:02:14	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x4eda4e…
07-02 13:56:25	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x67c6b8…
07-02 13:54:11	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x10a597…
07-02 13:49:17	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	98¢	$587	0xca320f…
07-02 13:45:56	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x95ed6c…
07-02 13:45:14	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x9dd0b1…
07-02 13:25:46	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	492	98¢	$481	0xd54db8…
07-02 10:56:26	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	735	94¢	$691	0x0af281…
07-02 09:50:01	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	SELL	1,422	3¢	$46	0xd119ee…
07-02 09:10:46	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0xeadc4e…
07-02 08:49:46	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	296	94¢	$278	0x032ce1…
07-02 07:59:14	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xe1ffe8…
07-02 07:56:44	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	171	93¢	$159	0x64c61c…
07-02 07:54:43	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	145	93¢	$135	0xe29296…
07-02 07:49:02	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	450	93¢	$418	0x66c90d…
07-02 07:45:41	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	2,200	93¢	$2,046	0x62a121…
07-02 05:01:53	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	54	93¢	$50	0xb54a31…
07-02 04:30:19	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	29	93¢	$27	0x756016…
07-02 04:10:08	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	19	93¢	$18	0xd8dc58…
07-02 03:52:34	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	250	93¢	$232	0x76babb…
07-02 02:33:19	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x77de9e…
07-02 02:27:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xdf6728…
07-02 02:18:52	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	145	93¢	$135	0xb4b541…
07-02 02:09:56	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	906	93¢	$843	0xc8f313…
07-02 01:37:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	97	0¢	$0	0x5acd18…
07-02 01:34:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	97	0¢	$0	0x5b0d90…
07-02 01:28:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xdeeb83…
07-02 01:25:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	106	0¢	$0	0x0ac9d4…
07-02 01:24:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0x4985a6…
07-02 01:21:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x142eff…
07-02 01:19:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xf3781a…
07-02 00:47:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	39	0¢	$0	0xf1c2cc…
07-02 00:26:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	225	0¢	$1	0xce240d…
07-01 18:58:35	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	1,964	92¢	$1,807	0xe3b883…
07-01 18:12:40	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	2,977	92¢	$2,739	0x5ae10c…
07-01 14:23:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	15,539	31¢	$4,817	0x6ec43e…
07-01 14:01:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	27,771	81¢	$22,558	0xf62734…
07-01 14:00:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	14,685	84¢	$12,319	0x656e89…
07-01 14:00:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	52,377	15¢	$7,856	0x065f99…
07-01 13:49:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$50	0xd3df52…
07-01 11:45:58	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	402	91¢	$366	0x6a2a35…
07-01 11:22:59	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	122	91¢	$111	0x70071b…
07-01 09:51:52	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	72	94¢	$68	0x9d295f…
07-01 09:28:44	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	529	91¢	$481	0xf44149…
07-01 09:25:14	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	450	94¢	$423	0xdb92f6…
07-01 08:55:59	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0x501851…
07-01 08:33:17	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	22	93¢	$21	0xf5c5ea…
07-01 08:07:29	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	SELL	552	96¢	$530	0xb73d10…
07-01 08:00:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xdf7af0…
07-01 07:41:29	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x9a34f1…
07-01 07:28:13	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x8817f3…
07-01 07:24:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0x50d083…
07-01 07:15:52	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x7a5856…
07-01 07:10:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	SELL	64	96¢	$61	0xb897b3…
07-01 06:56:53	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	215	93¢	$200	0x40a248…
07-01 06:54:23	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,558	95¢	$2,430	0xfaba26…
07-01 06:48:47	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0xeb42d4…
07-01 06:47:49	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,260	95¢	$1,197	0x481615…
07-01 06:38:38	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xefb9d7…
07-01 06:38:37	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x980efd…
07-01 06:24:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10,000	1¢	$60	0x1ac91a…
07-01 06:16:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	SELL	899	96¢	$863	0x24533d…
07-01 06:12:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	42	1¢	$0	0xb634ce…
07-01 06:08:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	42	1¢	$0	0x19d5c3…
07-01 06:04:56	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	500	92¢	$460	0xa34a29…
07-01 05:11:02	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	3,333	6¢	$200	0xedeb48…