Modest-Someone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$627

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.1%

Resolved

Trades

4,484

lifetime

Volume

$204.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 00:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

66% 50% +$495

Other

23% 100% +$134

Crypto

10% 50% $-2

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 155 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	100	$12.0K	10,412	10,006	+406	open	—	04-22 06:52
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	80	$9.0K	6,671	6,806	-135	open	—	04-07 00:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	107	$7.7K	8,071	7,058	+1,014	open	—	05-23 11:19
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	53	$7.1K	5,259	2,758	+2,501	open	—	04-01 03:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	20	$5.1K	4,035	3,884	+151	open	—	04-21 14:01
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	122	$4.8K	7,631	8,909	-1,278	open	—	04-23 11:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	29	$4.8K	4,740	2,373	+2,368	open	—	05-29 15:09
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	38	$3.9K	3,431	2,241	+1,189	open	—	05-23 18:02
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	49	$3.9K	6,306	2,587	+3,719	open	—	04-07 21:22
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	53	$3.5K	4,296	3,948	+348	open	—	04-27 18:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	32	$3.4K	3,500	3,950	-450	open	—	05-22 05:19
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	34	$3.3K	5,510	4,107	+1,403	No	+$244	05-09 01:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	7	$3.2K	3,289	35	+3,254	open	—	05-22 23:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	20	$2.5K	1,635	1,474	+161	open	—	07-01 15:56
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	87	$2.3K	4,488	4,016	+472	open	—	01-22 11:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	49	$2.3K	5,053	5,200	-147	open	—	04-07 21:23
russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 17	29	$2.3K	1,690	1,720	-30	open	—	04-16 01:28
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	12	$2.1K	1,401	1,001	+400	open	—	06-04 06:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	27	$2.0K	4,046	4,046	-0	open	—	08-05 23:16
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	17	$1.9K	955	1,214	-259	open	—	05-01 01:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	26	$1.8K	1,909	2,098	-189	open	—	04-23 02:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	34	$1.7K	2,170	4,956	-2,786	open	—	05-23 13:22
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	12	$1.7K	1,000	950	+50	open	—	05-23 13:09
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	42	$1.7K	1,746	1,961	-215	open	—	02-25 02:08
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	15	$1.7K	1,319	1,319	+0	open	—	04-01 13:21
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	34	$1.7K	1,229	1,229	+0	open	—	07-05 05:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	24	$1.6K	1,288	1,288	+0	open	—	05-01 23:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	30	$1.6K	1,398	1,398	+0	open	—	07-08 22:00
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	63	$1.6K	3,918	4,161	-243	open	—	02-23 08:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	15	$1.4K	2,398	1,648	+750	open	—	05-23 06:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 00:47:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	261	6¢	$16	0x3e5814…
08-10 23:37:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	70	5¢	$4	0x073b13…
08-10 21:16:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	267	5¢	$13	0x398b29…
08-10 21:16:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	289	6¢	$17	0x1009dc…
08-10 19:17:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	256	7¢	$18	0x8d0bbd…
08-10 18:57:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	130	7¢	$9	0xd81907…
08-10 18:40:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x062085…
08-09 21:08:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x3f71f1…
08-09 20:39:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	262	9¢	$24	0x1652b7…
08-06 00:23:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	48	16¢	$8	0x3d163a…
08-05 23:16:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	384	15¢	$58	0xcb40b1…
08-04 10:14:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	84	21¢	$18	0x4d095b…
08-04 01:13:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0x0df171…
08-04 00:25:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	21¢	$63	0x8fa8da…
08-03 22:56:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	250	42¢	$105	0x8c6cb9…
08-03 21:03:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	41	40¢	$16	0xd43131…
08-03 21:03:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0xa425c9…
08-03 21:03:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	83	40¢	$33	0x120dc7…
08-03 21:03:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0xc01419…
08-03 21:03:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xb1a150…
08-03 21:03:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x8c0cc6…
08-03 21:03:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	37	40¢	$15	0x7c4ee7…
08-03 21:03:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x17383b…
08-03 19:11:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	41¢	$82	0x9a4952…
07-31 21:00:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	113	49¢	$55	0x1cf753…
07-31 20:40:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x522f30…
07-31 11:17:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x5a17f7…
07-30 22:41:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	212	45¢	$95	0xb856c2…
07-30 20:43:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	338	46¢	$156	0x04019d…
07-30 20:19:36	btc updown 5m 1785442800	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x935dd3…
07-30 20:19:26	btc updown 5m 1785442800	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xb3c7ec…
07-30 20:19:26	btc updown 5m 1785442800	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x459e00…
07-30 20:18:48	btc updown 5m 1785442500	Up	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x750c2e…
07-30 20:14:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x0d4713…
07-30 20:14:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	300	57¢	$171	0x37065a…
07-30 20:12:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,262	24¢	$543	0x61238f…
07-30 17:29:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0xe5ff74…
07-30 15:46:20	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x6f292b…
07-30 15:46:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x6e04bb…
07-30 15:39:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	26¢	$65	0x47d88f…
07-30 01:42:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	260	51¢	$132	0xce85f3…
07-29 23:36:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	177	51¢	$90	0xa731b3…
07-29 23:11:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0x4ac6e9…
07-29 23:11:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	500	36¢	$180	0xcead67…
07-29 22:54:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	212	51¢	$108	0xf0c4f3…
07-29 22:53:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	300	36¢	$108	0xedb744…
07-28 22:22:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	225	45¢	$101	0x586a45…
07-28 22:20:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	293	25¢	$73	0x813045…
07-28 22:20:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x059ed1…
07-28 22:19:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	183	37¢	$68	0x1a89a2…
07-28 21:47:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0xff5529…
07-28 21:44:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x6e34fe…
07-27 15:32:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0xf82c48…
07-27 14:46:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	159	21¢	$33	0xa47920…
07-27 12:55:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x714a80…
07-26 19:14:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x93cd6c…
07-26 13:56:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	500	12¢	$60	0x8fbda3…
07-26 01:08:37	btc updown 5m 1785027900	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x090616…
07-25 02:10:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x3acc93…
07-25 01:34:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xc6eba7…
07-25 01:31:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	200	37¢	$74	0x620957…
07-25 01:17:00	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	SELL	225	60¢	$135	0x9d1af0…
07-25 01:08:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x95ed11…
07-25 00:15:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	880	37¢	$326	0x8a0dd2…
07-24 21:51:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	SELL	246	77¢	$189	0x1ef2f3…
07-24 21:46:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	SELL	246	76¢	$187	0x4be4bf…
07-24 21:44:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	103	62¢	$64	0x96ce36…
07-24 19:17:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x1e345c…
07-24 19:17:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	172	62¢	$107	0x0d1311…
07-24 18:50:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	73	62¢	$45	0x2c812b…
07-24 18:39:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	147	61¢	$90	0xdb0925…
07-24 18:16:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x578492…
07-24 02:37:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	218	69¢	$150	0xcb5f59…
07-24 02:37:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	Yes	BUY	92	54¢	$50	0x88077e…
07-24 02:29:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	Yes	BUY	289	54¢	$156	0xcc4012…
07-24 02:28:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x046c2c…
07-24 02:27:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	134	68¢	$91	0x664b08…
07-24 02:26:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	Yes	BUY	120	54¢	$65	0x764371…
07-24 02:14:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0xc34279…
07-24 02:13:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	139	65¢	$90	0x714d6b…
07-23 20:57:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0x936a3f…
07-23 19:19:51	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	BUY	35	60¢	$21	0x99c0b3…
07-23 16:13:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	159	30¢	$48	0xf42789…
07-23 15:59:42	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x4bd971…
07-23 15:56:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	30¢	$75	0x4ded62…
07-23 14:47:01	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x1dde68…
07-22 23:59:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0xb1c05e…
07-22 23:38:54	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	SELL	91	62¢	$57	0x601b0c…
07-22 22:13:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x15f902…
07-22 22:04:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xdba7e3…
07-22 22:03:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x81538d…
07-22 22:03:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x1d1712…
07-22 21:31:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	126	28¢	$35	0xe28165…
07-22 20:35:21	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	SELL	34	62¢	$21	0xd677d1…
07-22 19:50:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0xafd142…
07-22 14:31:43	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	Yes	SELL	542	100¢	$541	0x7e671e…
07-20 23:37:19	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	Yes	BUY	16	66¢	$11	0xf6cdc5…
07-20 23:21:55	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	Yes	BUY	82	67¢	$55	0x867037…
07-20 23:18:58	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	Yes	BUY	300	66¢	$200	0x579360…
07-20 20:26:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0xfb87e6…