Vague-Grid — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

94.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.96K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$68

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 10-27 08:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

43% 90% -$33

Politics

22% 100% +$11

Sports

22% 100% +$14

Tech

12% 50% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No		+48	$46	97¢	$46	+$0	10-23 20:08
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No		+22	$21	98¢	$22	+$0	10-27 08:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$122	64	64	+0	No	+$1	06-16 09:27
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	2	$111	56	56	+0	No	+$1	07-05 17:28
Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?	4	$106	55	55	+0	open	—	10-08 21:03
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$105	55	55	+0	Yes	+$5	06-11 12:55
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?	3	$102	53	53	+0	No	+$3	06-01 02:24
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$101	52	52	+0	Yes	+$1	05-24 14:43
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?	2	$100	52	52	+0	No	+$0	05-23 23:35
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	2	$99	52	52	+0	No	+$1	05-18 05:44
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$75	80	0	+80	No	+$4	07-01 13:31
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	3	$72	37	37	-0	Yes	+$0	05-12 17:30
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	2	$65	67	0	+67	No	+$2	06-29 13:18
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	1	$60	64	0	+64	Yes	+$4	06-05 13:40
US x China Military clash before 2027?	2	$50	27	27	+0	open	—	05-16 02:22
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026?	1	$50	53	0	+53	open	—	08-22 00:31
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	1	$50	54	0	+54	No	+$4	05-15 06:57
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	1	$50	51	0	+51	Yes	+$1	05-20 19:28
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	1	$49	53	0	+53	No	+$3	05-15 07:22
mlb aaron judge or juan soto to draw more walks	1	$49	52	0	+52	Soto	+$3	08-03 06:40
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	2	$48	52	0	+52	open	—	10-25 17:09
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $156 in May?	1	$48	51	0	+51	Yes	-$48	05-29 13:32
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	1	$48	49	0	+49	No	+$1	05-29 13:32
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	1	$46	48	0	+48	open	—	10-23 20:08
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	2	$43	27	27	+0	Yes	+$1	05-04 20:37
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	2	$43	22	22	+0	Yes	+$1	03-31 23:18
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$42	23	23	+0	Yes	+$0	05-19 19:08
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	2	$41	22	22	+0	Yes	+$1	03-20 22:25
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$0	03-27 09:31
Kash Patel out by May 31?	2	$37	19	19	+0	No	+$1	05-31 12:49
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?	1	$35	36	0	+36	Yes	+$1	08-03 06:32
Will Walmart acquire TikTok?	1	$23	0	24	-24	No	-$1	05-12 17:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 08:17:48	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd143fb…
10-27 08:17:47	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xcca749…
10-27 08:17:41	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x146e96…
10-27 08:17:36	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf28bfe…
10-27 08:17:35	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x5dd18c…
10-25 17:09:08	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x3fbcaf…
10-23 20:08:02	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	48	96¢	$46	0x589ed5…
10-22 23:53:54	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	BUY	46	93¢	$43	0x14ae40…
10-08 21:03:48	Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xa068aa…
09-30 06:34:44	Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0x9189d6…
08-24 08:37:45	Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xbaf05a…
08-22 00:31:27	Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x694433…
08-03 06:40:27	mlb aaron judge or juan soto to draw more walks	Soto	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0xfabb6a…
08-03 06:32:30	Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0x7e83fd…
07-05 17:28:14	Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0xea4b88…
07-01 13:31:47	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0xfaf0f0…
06-30 10:08:59	Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?	No	BUY	55	96¢	$53	0xe0a8f4…
06-29 16:31:20	Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x81abcf…
06-29 13:18:05	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc1c503…
06-29 12:21:53	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	66	97¢	$64	0xf65992…
06-16 09:27:42	Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	64	97¢	$61	0x20dd75…
06-11 12:55:39	Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0xf12ba7…
06-05 13:40:57	Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x87c7af…
06-03 09:12:01	Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	64	95¢	$61	0x05b98d…
06-01 02:24:09	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?	No	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0x7532ed…
05-31 12:49:30	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xb02c28…
05-29 13:32:06	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $156 in May?	No	BUY	51	94¢	$48	0x0f7c37…
05-29 13:32:03	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	BUY	49	97¢	$48	0x682358…
05-27 15:44:05	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?	No	BUY	24	94¢	$23	0x2e3019…
05-27 05:25:17	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?	No	BUY	29	94¢	$27	0x488c17…
05-27 01:29:14	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0xb0c929…
05-24 14:43:51	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0xeb8fa7…
05-23 23:35:46	Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0x55c105…
05-23 04:56:04	Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xd91672…
05-23 02:54:02	Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xd8b0b6…
05-23 00:48:00	Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	91¢	$37	0x86415c…
05-20 21:04:47	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x230ea1…
05-20 19:28:06	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x53a99f…
05-20 10:54:06	Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xd4e8a4…
05-19 19:08:57	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	23	93¢	$21	0xeb1052…
05-18 05:44:48	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0x0a870c…
05-16 02:22:41	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	27	94¢	$25	0x467765…
05-15 07:22:42	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$49	0x9532b2…
05-15 07:00:07	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x43836a…
05-15 06:57:35	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xfb16b3…
05-12 17:30:39	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0x8b0f91…
05-12 17:15:14	Will Walmart acquire TikTok?	No	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0x470146…
05-12 09:27:46	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x457bc9…
05-12 09:16:22	Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x8233f9…
05-04 20:37:52	Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	27	82¢	$22	0x2865ba…
05-03 11:33:38	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	No	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0xa492f4…
04-30 02:42:22	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0xa59856…
04-29 14:55:58	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x4a5bc0…
04-08 10:06:13	Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	27	79¢	$21	0x71b302…
03-31 23:18:43	will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xd94137…
03-27 09:31:33	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x41a47b…
03-26 14:48:51	will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	22	93¢	$21	0x08482e…
03-20 22:25:51	Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0xfdc2e0…
03-19 11:43:37	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0x53f199…
03-19 11:43:01	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x285a03…
03-19 11:40:05	Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x127d1a…