Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

64.2%

Resolved

245

Trades

745

lifetime

Volume

$1.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$21

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-26 00:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Other

83% 54% +$7

Politics

14% 74% +$6

Tech

1% 58% -$3

Crypto

1% 36% -$8

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	-11	-$10	96¢	$-11	-$1	06-17 17:58
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	+3	$2	87¢	$2	+$0	10-06 17:56
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	+3	$2	80¢	$2	+$0	09-06 00:32
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	+3	$1	70¢	$2	+$1	09-23 05:34
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	No	+2	$1	90¢	$1	+$0	09-06 00:46
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	+2	$1	63¢	$1	$0	10-06 21:07
will the highest score achieved by a spacexai grok model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 45 or higher 20260723191456650	Yes	+1	$1	65¢	$1	$0	09-16 02:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	15	$67	82	20	+62	open	—	10-22 16:00
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 21, 2026?	9	$37	68	50	+18	Yes	+$55	09-21 16:07
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	11	$32	35	39	-4	No	-$7	01-13 15:51
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	8	$30	22	16	+6	No	+$6	07-01 01:09
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 4pt5	2	$29	17	16	+0	Under	+$3	07-11 22:39
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	3	$27	15	15	+0	No	+$3	06-17 19:01
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 16?	12	$25	22	15	+7	Yes	+$5	07-17 03:10
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 540 559	10	$23	23	19	+4	Yes	-$1	01-16 16:30
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 520 539	5	$23	27	11	+16	No	-$1	01-12 23:42
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 500 519	8	$21	20	20	+0	No	+$2	01-16 14:49
will trump and machado not shake hands	5	$21	15	10	+5	Yes	+$2	01-17 05:17
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	3	$20	11	11	+0	No	+$3	01-16 05:43
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 520 539	9	$18	20	20	+0	No	$0	01-16 15:05
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	22	$18	181	137	+44	Yes	-$9	10-16 05:30
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	6	$17	11	11	+0	No	+$5	08-23 05:06
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 17?	16	$17	25	25	+0	Yes	-$10	07-17 20:52
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 560 579	5	$16	17	17	+0	No	+$1	01-20 15:48
sinaloa gov ruben rocha arrested by june 30	2	$14	8	8	+0	No	+$1	07-02 22:41
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 16?	9	$13	17	14	+3	No	-$4	07-16 21:34
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 460 479	11	$12	192	216	-24	No	-$2	01-17 03:29
will trump and robert fico not shake hands	2	$12	6	6	+0	Yes	+$0	01-18 07:57
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 540 559	9	$11	19	19	+0	Yes	+$1	01-13 13:03
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$11	7	7	+0	No	+$1	10-26 00:08
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 560 579	4	$11	15	15	+0	No	+$0	01-16 14:34
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 17?	14	$11	18	12	+6	No	-$1	07-17 20:35
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 12?	5	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	07-12 20:07
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 15?	4	$11	8	8	+0	Yes	+$5	07-16 02:05
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	1	$10	0	11	-11	open	—	06-17 17:58
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$1	01-15 05:14
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$1	01-18 05:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 00:08:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xc43759…
10-26 00:08:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x92e7e4…
10-25 22:53:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xe1e8cb…
10-25 22:52:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xf5382c…
10-25 22:52:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0x7934e8…
10-25 22:52:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0x4f0674…
10-25 21:10:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x2a741d…
10-25 21:05:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa4db75…
10-23 18:17:54	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in October?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x9a8f71…
10-22 16:00:14	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x3783e7…
10-21 03:05:44	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xfdd5db…
10-21 02:58:24	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in October?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x5322ed…
10-18 18:18:57	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x14a773…
10-17 22:53:45	Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0x9b8c9d…
10-17 04:35:38	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in October?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x159f83…
10-17 04:32:43	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of October?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xb39042…
10-17 04:31:49	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of October?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xfc9247…
10-16 23:10:48	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x80b213…
10-16 15:46:25	Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xe8ffb8…
10-16 05:30:13	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0xbf12cc…
10-16 05:23:28	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	40	1¢	$1	0x2a48c3…
10-16 05:21:45	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x9ff4e9…
10-16 05:18:15	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x0ca27a…
10-16 04:36:58	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0x36c7fb…
10-16 04:30:09	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0xc056e5…
10-16 04:30:09	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xaba40e…
10-16 04:15:48	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0x9f5da2…
10-16 04:09:00	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xe95d6a…
10-16 04:01:24	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x1063a8…
10-16 03:57:55	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x8b81da…
10-16 03:55:21	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Yes	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x73052a…
10-16 03:54:52	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0c215c…
10-16 03:53:52	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9841a2…
10-16 03:52:03	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2f0671…
10-16 03:50:57	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0xdbcb26…
10-16 03:50:49	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x692505…
10-16 02:12:55	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x85738d…
10-16 02:11:18	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x790bac…
10-16 01:54:48	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x6c6e36…
10-16 01:45:43	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa111b6…
10-16 01:45:03	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xa38c2f…
10-15 04:52:40	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0xc2a621…
10-12 20:23:44	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xfbd2a2…
10-09 22:19:07	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x4a78bb…
10-07 21:37:30	Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x79be61…
10-07 21:04:40	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x6ba888…
10-06 21:07:05	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x2b0c84…
10-06 17:56:45	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd8315d…
10-06 07:17:06	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x2ff4ff…
10-03 22:10:22	Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x9cb8df…
10-03 22:10:13	Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x772a4d…
10-03 04:53:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xcd3241…
10-01 22:17:50	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x8a1603…
10-01 22:17:27	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xade7d4…
10-01 20:08:08	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xf34937…
10-01 20:08:05	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x68271c…
10-01 20:07:57	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xe1f4c1…
09-29 21:41:05	will patient zero hit 45m first week streams	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x7f6809…
09-29 21:40:51	will patient zero hit 47m first week streams	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xf56685…
09-29 21:40:44	will patient zero hit 43m first week streams	No	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x5c434a…
09-29 21:40:39	will patient zero hit 45m first week streams	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x84d407…
09-29 21:40:00	will patient zero hit 50m first week streams	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x2deffc…
09-29 18:04:23	will patient zero hit 35m first week streams	No	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0x5d74ac…
09-29 18:00:30	will patient zero hit 40m first week streams	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7728e6…
09-29 17:58:02	will patient zero hit 45m first week streams	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xb1fec3…
09-28 15:12:48	will patient zero hit 50m first week streams	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x771242…
09-27 19:39:29	will patient zero hit 55m first week streams	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x099e6a…
09-27 19:12:50	will patient zero hit 45m first week streams	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6490f6…
09-27 17:53:29	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xa29717…
09-27 07:25:51	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0xe96247…
09-26 22:26:26	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x54ff2c…
09-26 21:36:32	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x0f0c46…
09-26 21:36:27	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x97b47a…
09-26 21:35:17	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xe88b5d…
09-26 21:33:47	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x83cfd9…
09-26 21:33:26	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x17516e…
09-26 21:32:24	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x37280a…
09-26 21:32:20	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xfe1e2e…
09-26 21:32:00	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf819b9…
09-26 21:31:39	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x922d42…
09-26 19:30:06	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x4bb71f…
09-26 19:04:14	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xf1a9d3…
09-26 01:32:39	Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x25a897…
09-26 00:59:11	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x7de7fa…
09-26 00:58:54	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x27c10c…
09-26 00:58:42	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x04997c…
09-26 00:39:51	Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x665091…
09-25 20:45:03	Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x10ac0f…
09-25 07:53:48	Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xe4be1b…
09-24 19:09:38	will taylor swifts monthly listeners figure hit 110m by october 31	No	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x705985…
09-24 19:00:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0xf6acc4…
09-24 19:00:06	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x19e62b…
09-24 18:59:56	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x574e80…
09-24 18:58:53	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0x9c5efb…
09-24 18:10:53	will taylor swifts monthly listeners figure hit 110m by october 31	Yes	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0xe11aac…
09-24 17:25:09	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0x55626f…
09-24 17:24:14	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xe6b440…
09-24 02:09:59	Clavicular charges dropped by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x116a1d…
09-24 01:50:08	Clavicular in jail by October 31?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x4ffd0a…
09-24 01:37:26	Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x073f57…