Focused-Junior — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$845

Unrealized P&L

-$1.02K

Hit rate

71.1%

Resolved

202

Trades

3,067

lifetime

Volume

$2.09M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$681

Open exposure

$11.0K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-27 11:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Other

54% 100% +$3,725

Politics

46% 87% -$3,086

Crypto

0% 100% +$206

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+9,103	$8,924	99¢	$9.0K	+$119	10-27 11:16
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+6,000	$2,380	27¢	$1.6K	-$760	09-26 05:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+977	$358	16¢	$151	-$206	06-01 20:47
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$190	9¢	$90	-$100	09-24 16:49
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$140	6¢	$65	-$75	09-25 05:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	844	$594.3K	292,523	313,684	-21,161	No	-$432	01-31 15:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	616	$256.4K	139,979	123,479	+16,500	No	+$1,108	04-26 04:50
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	101	$25.6K	13,600	13,600	+0	Yes	+$23	07-12 07:38
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	80	$22.5K	11,684	11,393	+291	No	+$48	03-07 07:28
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 160 179	12	$16.0K	16,002	0	+16,002	No	+$43	04-22 20:40
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 380 399	1	$15.8K	15,859	0	+15,859	No	+$32	04-17 06:21
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$15.2K	15,278	0	+15,278	Yes	+$40	04-08 03:54
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 160 179	5	$15.2K	15,220	0	+15,220	No	+$15	04-03 22:21
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	22	$15.2K	15,205	0	+15,205	No	+$15	04-01 19:30
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 160 179	5	$15.2K	15,190	0	+15,190	No	+$30	03-31 16:04
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 100 119	7	$15.1K	15,159	0	+15,159	No	+$15	03-31 05:02
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 140 159	23	$15.1K	15,145	0	+15,145	No	+$22	03-28 11:19
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 0 39	2	$15.1K	15,120	0	+15,120	No	+$45	03-27 07:22
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 200 219	3	$15.0K	15,041	0	+15,041	No	+$15	03-25 23:26
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	2	$15.0K	15,050	0	+15,050	No	+$30	03-26 10:52
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	28	$14.6K	14,710	0	+14,710	No	+$101	05-03 07:41
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 260 279	7	$14.2K	14,242	0	+14,242	No	+$28	04-16 20:36
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	15	$13.9K	14,000	0	+14,000	No	+$71	05-03 15:10
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 160 179	2	$13.7K	13,687	0	+13,687	No	+$14	03-01 17:58
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	56	$13.6K	8,371	7,171	+1,200	Yes	+$250	07-12 04:57
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 140 159	7	$13.5K	13,559	0	+13,559	No	+$20	02-28 11:17
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 260 279	2	$13.5K	13,491	0	+13,491	No	+$31	02-26 15:40
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 240 259	11	$13.2K	13,242	0	+13,242	No	+$40	02-19 12:41
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 220 239	12	$13.2K	13,201	0	+13,201	No	+$22	02-19 08:36
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 360 379	4	$13.1K	13,143	0	+13,143	No	+$22	02-16 21:40
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 180 199	4	$13.0K	13,071	0	+13,071	No	+$26	02-15 11:08
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	117	$12.9K	8,846	4,392	+4,454	No	+$148	02-06 16:23
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 200 219	2	$12.7K	6,381	6,381	+0	No	+$0	04-09 21:30
elon musk of tweets february 16 february 18 65 89	2	$12.7K	12,717	0	+12,717	No	+$25	02-18 03:23
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 420 439	5	$12.6K	12,592	0	+12,592	No	+$25	02-03 06:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 11:16:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x8b4ae7…
10-27 07:49:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x04454c…
10-27 07:03:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x795b27…
10-21 13:32:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa3a0c5…
10-20 06:28:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	174	97¢	$169	0x1f2a1f…
10-19 12:13:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,959	98¢	$3,880	0x0dd27b…
10-19 11:55:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xda1bb5…
10-19 11:19:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0x7e4b5e…
10-16 22:48:03	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x583d12…
10-15 18:16:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	2,417	100¢	$2,415	0x5d7d8d…
10-15 18:16:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	5,280	100¢	$5,275	0x02f130…
10-09 14:12:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 9?	No	BUY	650	100¢	$649	0xd77420…
10-08 21:44:20	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0xa3e06a…
10-08 21:20:59	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0xe9729e…
10-08 21:14:41	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0xf4e821…
10-08 21:01:35	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x05f411…
10-08 21:01:30	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x36b0cd…
10-08 21:01:20	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x5e7e62…
10-08 21:00:38	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0x4f708f…
10-08 19:00:39	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	555	100¢	$554	0x002f5e…
10-08 18:39:23	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	649	99¢	$646	0x02e2f4…
10-08 18:35:38	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	620	100¢	$619	0x0530f8…
10-08 18:35:17	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1,902	100¢	$1,898	0x0ed935…
10-06 12:19:42	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	845	100¢	$843	0xdccb6a…
10-06 12:16:00	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x2a4c9c…
10-06 12:05:33	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0x97b3e6…
10-06 12:04:24	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x70516b…
10-06 12:04:15	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2,800	100¢	$2,797	0x33fb96…
10-06 12:03:16	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1,021	100¢	$1,019	0xbae6f0…
10-06 12:03:03	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1,054	100¢	$1,051	0x7d0505…
09-26 05:59:09	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,650	39¢	$644	0x3462d4…
09-25 21:25:45	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	39¢	$26	0x530a22…
09-25 05:01:12	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	964	14¢	$135	0x6677ed…
09-25 01:13:20	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	39¢	$63	0x621736…
09-24 20:53:30	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x2e6fad…
09-24 19:30:59	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0x72b9ec…
09-24 19:30:32	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x25eb75…
09-24 18:40:06	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0xba865c…
09-24 18:25:42	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x1cf9bb…
09-24 16:49:26	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	19¢	$190	0x9ed2e9…
09-24 16:48:53	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,287	40¢	$915	0xa5d39a…
09-24 16:48:53	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x5eff44…
09-24 16:48:51	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xf13849…
09-24 16:48:51	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x2eb625…
09-24 13:53:04	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,713	40¢	$685	0xa9dcdd…
09-24 13:51:52	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,975	98¢	$2,914	0x92f810…
07-12 07:38:08	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	226	95¢	$214	0xe9850e…
07-12 07:38:08	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	498	95¢	$472	0xad8337…
07-12 07:38:08	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	53	46¢	$24	0x7c6f40…
07-12 05:12:46	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	95¢	$474	0x653a6c…
07-12 04:57:37	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	89¢	$890	0xd42503…
07-12 04:48:44	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0x8bef1e…
07-12 04:48:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xf7d2f1…
07-12 04:48:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xb13dc1…
07-12 04:48:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	95¢	$2	0x5a909d…
07-12 04:48:32	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd1130c…
07-12 04:48:32	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xa2d938…
07-12 04:48:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	94¢	$944	0x906dc8…
07-12 04:47:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	242	94¢	$227	0x161f40…
07-12 04:47:05	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x2c492d…
07-12 04:47:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x314d91…
07-12 04:46:59	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	94¢	$2	0xf9913f…
07-12 04:46:53	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x5adb44…
07-12 04:46:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	94¢	$20	0xf76f6c…
07-12 04:46:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0xb2b767…
07-12 04:46:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xb03b7b…
07-12 04:46:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xa00c40…
07-12 04:46:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x986f30…
07-12 04:46:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x97059f…
07-12 04:46:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	158	94¢	$149	0x8cf073…
07-12 04:46:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x52cc61…
07-12 04:46:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	94¢	$940	0xb8dd43…
07-12 04:46:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x675ba3…
07-07 21:18:20	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xa90948…
07-07 16:17:38	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0xf208c2…
07-07 14:57:11	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	593	94¢	$556	0x2d3c32…
07-07 14:42:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	775	94¢	$728	0x735231…
07-07 14:42:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	94¢	$101	0x42db35…
07-07 14:06:55	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x038fb1…
07-07 13:21:56	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0xfa9166…
07-07 13:21:55	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0xd1f229…
07-07 13:21:23	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	400	87¢	$348	0x16351f…
07-07 12:46:35	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0x16be29…
07-07 12:43:02	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	500	44¢	$220	0x63b832…
07-07 12:18:41	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	893	94¢	$838	0x59cec1…
07-07 12:16:58	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x732781…
07-07 11:45:40	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	94¢	$66	0x24cef2…
07-07 11:45:11	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	70	87¢	$61	0x2f879d…
07-07 11:44:20	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xb36ae9…
07-07 11:42:05	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x03c624…
07-07 11:34:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	94¢	$35	0x98ee9c…
07-07 10:39:04	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x24e1fc…
07-07 10:33:14	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xfe83c0…
07-07 10:32:26	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0xeccf41…
07-07 10:29:07	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	38	87¢	$33	0xb0029e…
07-07 10:28:31	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x4654c4…
07-07 10:25:59	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xd1db50…
07-07 10:20:20	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	428	94¢	$403	0x4594cd…
07-07 10:15:14	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x9c503c…
07-07 10:00:08	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	364	45¢	$164	0x848da0…