Serene-Short — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$22

Hit rate

51.2%

Resolved

102

Trades

186

lifetime

Volume

$104.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$562

Open exposure

$543

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 11-06 20:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Politics

44% 62% +$509

Other

38% 59% +$907

Sports

18% 57% +$13,950

Crypto

0% 0% -$15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	+397	$263	66¢	$260	-$3	11-06 20:04
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)	Trail Blazers	+203	$115	52¢	$104	-$11	11-07 04:30
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-11-06?	No	+145	$100	64¢	$92	-$8	11-07 04:29
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+109	$87	80¢	$87	$0	11-06 19:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	8	$36.6K	20,029	20,029	+0	Yes	-$100	10-26 01:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$11.2K	11,909	100	+11,809	Yes	+$785	10-28 18:07
Heat vs. Hawks	2	$10.8K	19,676	0	+19,676	Heat	+$8,868	10-28 23:45
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	4	$5.2K	2,978	2,978	+0	No	+$175	10-05 19:51
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-21?	3	$4.3K	6,333	0	+6,333	No	+$2,061	10-21 19:37
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-14?	3	$2.8K	2,751	2,751	+0	Yes	-$1,128	10-14 19:18
Knicks vs. 76ers	1	$2.7K	6,682	0	+6,682	76ers	+$4,010	10-05 19:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$2.7K	1,438	1,438	+0	open	—	07-18 21:40
fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 total 5pt5	1	$2.5K	2,923	0	+2,923	Under	+$438	06-21 11:23
Magic vs. Suns	1	$1.5K	2,856	0	+2,856	Suns	+$1,400	11-05 18:25
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A	2	$1.4K	2,436	2,436	+0	MIBR	-$1,105	09-08 08:48
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	2	$1.4K	1,128	1,128	+0	Yes	-$208	10-14 19:26
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	1	$1.3K	1,460	0	+1,460	England	+$117	07-18 21:41
Heat vs. Clippers	3	$1.1K	1,535	150	+1,385	Heat	-$1,048	11-05 04:33
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	9	$1.0K	1,586	0	+1,586	No	+$538	07-14 04:39
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	5	$994	782	782	+0	Yes	+$107	10-25 12:03
Will AZ win on 2026-11-05?	2	$989	1,284	0	+1,284	No	+$295	11-05 16:54
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	4	$869	669	669	+0	Yes	-$29	10-25 12:04
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	2	$859	1,263	0	+1,263	Yes	-$859	10-25 12:04
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	1	$728	1,055	0	+1,055	Yes	+$327	10-29 05:03
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3	$646	378	378	+0	open	—	09-30 06:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	2	$613	313	313	+0	Yes	+$12	10-12 23:09
fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team to advance	3	$603	950	0	+950	Mexico	+$347	06-30 20:32
ucl mnc psg 2026 10 14 total 4pt5	1	$573	1,301	0	+1,301	Over	-$573	10-14 19:29
fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	1	$500	758	0	+758	Spain	+$258	07-06 18:14
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	1	$492	836	0	+836	Yes	+$345	05-04 19:45
Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026?	4	$424	496	0	+496	No	+$72	09-07 04:20
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 4pt5	1	$399	591	0	+591	Over	-$399	07-07 17:52
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	2	$350	686	0	+686	England	+$336	07-05 22:03
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$335	186	186	+0	No	+$37	07-10 19:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 04:30:16	Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)	Trail Blazers	BUY	203	57¢	$115	0x39382a…
11-07 04:29:37	Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-11-06?	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xdcd9e4…
11-06 20:04:15	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	BUY	303	66¢	$200	0x0df128…
11-06 19:45:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	109	80¢	$87	0x3444f0…
11-06 19:43:55	Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x828eff…
11-06 17:35:36	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?	No	BUY	94	67¢	$63	0x5aae7b…
11-06 08:51:19	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs	PARIVISION	SELL	34	40¢	$14	0x03478a…
11-06 06:55:45	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs	PARIVISION	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0xb31be2…
11-06 04:51:33	Spread: Heat (-1.5)	Heat	SELL	232	14¢	$33	0x2520da…
11-06 04:13:45	Predators vs. Avalanche: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	108	88¢	$95	0x7ec446…
11-06 03:48:37	Predators vs. Avalanche: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	170	59¢	$100	0xbb7d47…
11-06 03:37:28	Spread: Heat (-1.5)	Heat	BUY	232	40¢	$93	0x4e2e83…
11-05 18:25:48	Magic vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	2,856	51¢	$1,457	0xb07741…
11-05 16:54:21	Will AZ win on 2026-11-05?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0xa52c70…
11-05 16:53:58	Will AZ win on 2026-11-05?	No	BUY	1,282	77¢	$987	0x968af9…
11-05 04:42:52	Spread: Lakers (-8.5)	Kings	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xd8a17f…
11-05 04:33:58	Heat vs. Clippers	Clippers	BUY	1,385	71¢	$984	0xa708ca…
11-05 04:31:51	Spread: Heat (-2.5)	Heat	SELL	146	21¢	$31	0x7582ac…
11-05 04:31:33	Spread: Heat (-2.5)	Heat	SELL	18	17¢	$3	0x73af93…
11-05 04:30:15	Heat vs. Clippers	Heat	SELL	150	23¢	$34	0x4f379c…
11-04 19:40:40	Heat vs. Clippers	Heat	BUY	150	66¢	$99	0x9e57c9…
11-04 19:40:22	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-11-04?	No	BUY	127	75¢	$96	0x4eb524…
11-04 19:25:07	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd6a351…
11-04 19:23:18	Spread: Heat (-2.5)	Heat	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0xda6785…
11-04 19:22:42	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-04?	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x02fbc6…
11-04 17:10:06	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x7e979c…
11-04 13:51:54	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-11-04?	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xc22e5d…
11-04 13:00:21	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	85¢	$97	0xa2c251…
11-04 11:09:21	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	TheMongolz	BUY	46	41¢	$19	0xa5c53f…
11-04 09:19:10	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0xfef404…
11-04 09:18:46	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B	Liquid	BUY	83	66¢	$55	0xcd3e5f…
10-29 05:03:58	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,055	69¢	$728	0x1a0017…
10-29 01:23:20	76ers vs. Pacers	76ers	SELL	141	37¢	$52	0x6b48fe…
10-28 23:45:07	Heat vs. Hawks	Heat	BUY	17,839	56¢	$10,000	0xc24d6f…
10-28 22:57:08	Heat vs. Hawks	Heat	BUY	1,836	44¢	$808	0xa35f4a…
10-28 18:08:35	76ers vs. Pacers	76ers	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x884342…
10-28 18:07:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd7a851…
10-26 01:47:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,371	95¢	$8,902	0xff9284…
10-26 01:47:03	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	9,781	91¢	$8,900	0xc085c4…
10-25 12:04:18	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	470	68¢	$320	0x91df59…
10-25 12:04:02	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	515	63¢	$324	0x0c42f9…
10-25 12:03:51	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	793	68¢	$539	0x5168e9…
10-25 12:03:21	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	782	70¢	$550	0xff3dda…
10-24 04:01:20	Grizzlies vs. Warriors	Warriors	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4b677a…
10-22 11:58:59	Counter-Strike: BIG vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	TheMongolz	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x92af8f…
10-22 05:51:38	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	9,781	92¢	$9,000	0xfe6c65…
10-22 05:49:37	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	515	68¢	$350	0x45e527…
10-21 23:55:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,273	88¢	$2,000	0x60e7f6…
10-21 20:05:18	Spread: Lakers (-2.5)	Lakers	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x1d4af7…
10-21 19:54:29	Spread: Lakers (-2.5)	Lakers	BUY	156	63¢	$98	0x126c19…
10-21 19:45:44	Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs	BC.Game Esports	BUY	107	64¢	$69	0xfb694e…
10-21 19:39:14	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Movsar Evloev	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9b16d7…
10-21 19:38:35	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Merab Dvalishvili	BUY	38	41¢	$15	0xe9de24…
10-21 19:37:09	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	1,391	68¢	$946	0x8cc7ca…
10-21 19:19:18	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	1,471	68¢	$1,000	0xa1d73a…
10-21 19:12:26	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	3,472	67¢	$2,326	0x5856af…
10-21 19:12:03	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	10,248	91¢	$9,326	0x95775c…
10-20 19:06:06	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xebc941…
10-16 13:12:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	108	87¢	$94	0xa40f36…
10-16 13:11:55	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	154	62¢	$96	0x208295…
10-15 11:07:03	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Merab Dvalishvili	BUY	18	39¢	$7	0x151cd7…
10-14 19:29:09	ucl mnc psg 2026 10 14 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	1,301	44¢	$573	0xffb4e4…
10-14 19:26:21	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	No	SELL	1,128	54¢	$604	0x3f4c47…
10-14 19:22:22	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	No	BUY	1,128	72¢	$812	0x797807…
10-14 19:18:37	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-14?	No	SELL	2,751	31¢	$853	0x87fca8…
10-14 17:56:46	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-14?	No	BUY	1,362	72¢	$980	0x35dfbb…
10-14 17:56:24	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-14?	No	BUY	1,389	72¢	$1,000	0xd41c47…
10-13 01:32:24	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x985da3…
10-13 01:32:00	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	7,662	91¢	$6,972	0xa26173…
10-13 01:29:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	157	81¢	$127	0x4637a0…
10-12 23:10:38	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	218	91¢	$198	0x45427c…
10-12 23:10:09	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	174	65¢	$113	0x97ab09…
10-12 23:09:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	SELL	313	100¢	$313	0x960fd9…
10-12 11:47:44	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,640	91¢	$1,492	0x063c38…
10-11 22:00:56	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	74	91¢	$67	0xa9787a…
10-11 08:44:46	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	655	91¢	$596	0xd437d4…
10-11 08:44:31	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	64¢	$99	0xb58961…
10-11 08:42:52	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	201	66¢	$134	0x7eeaf5…
10-10 10:08:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	313	96¢	$301	0x6ae388…
10-07 14:51:10	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	404	48¢	$195	0x6521da…
10-05 19:52:58	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	6,682	40¢	$2,673	0x12d97d…
10-05 19:51:58	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,978	90¢	$2,681	0x14c630…
10-05 19:02:32	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	Team Falcons	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x7e6a11…
10-05 18:40:46	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	111	82¢	$92	0x4c11d6…
10-05 00:35:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	111	84¢	$94	0xefa5f2…
10-05 00:34:58	Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	115	81¢	$93	0x81fbd6…
10-01 05:37:00	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	459	0¢	$2	0x2e99a4…
09-30 11:22:50	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	459	71¢	$325	0x150581…
09-30 06:55:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	378	86¢	$325	0x793fc8…
09-26 06:22:00	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,387	84¢	$2,005	0xf9c4ac…
09-25 09:12:57	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	180	84¢	$151	0xe733b7…
09-20 15:34:21	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0xeef7b3…
09-20 13:31:07	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	412	85¢	$350	0x66aec0…
09-20 13:30:46	Real Madrid CF to score first vs. Club Atlético de Madrid?	Yes	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0xa34e0f…
09-19 21:24:02	UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	Arman Tsarukyan	BUY	207	74¢	$153	0x8f3fd3…
09-08 08:48:00	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A	TheMongolz	SELL	2,436	7¢	$160	0x7d1d04…
09-08 05:42:54	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A	TheMongolz	BUY	2,436	52¢	$1,265	0xaf9f15…
09-07 04:20:00	Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	229	87¢	$199	0x90c489…
09-07 04:18:46	Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	115	79¢	$91	0x9a4561…
09-06 12:20:27	Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-06?	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x87e6b0…