Knotty-Leverage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$489

Hit rate

70.4%

Resolved

293

Trades

6,852

lifetime

Volume

$584.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$85

Open exposure

$26.6K

15 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-27 06:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 111 days

Categories

Politics

71% 80% -$19,491

Other

28% 63% -$851

Tech

1% 50% -$328

Sports

0% 22% -$256

Crypto

0% 0% -$100

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 134 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-24,311	-$19,503	82¢	$-19814	-$311	07-20 13:26
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,000	$2,210	80¢	$2.4K	+$175	10-24 00:40
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+1,250	$1,067	92¢	$1.2K	+$89	10-27 01:51
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	+1,500	$946	57¢	$862	-$84	10-25 23:33
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	+1,034	$680	77¢	$796	+$116	10-27 06:20
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+550	$375	68¢	$377	+$2	10-20 01:50
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	No	+500	$410	74¢	$368	-$42	09-29 17:03
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	+500	$319	70¢	$348	+$28	10-26 20:50
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+331	$257	67¢	$222	-$35	10-16 18:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+200	$102	55¢	$109	+$7	10-27 01:57
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	+200	$86	44¢	$87	+$1	10-27 01:58
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+251	$158	22¢	$56	-$102	10-27 01:58
iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	No	+83	-$8	59¢	$49	+$56	09-27 04:55
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	-40	-$526	28¢	$-11	+$515	10-25 16:50
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	+0	-$73	81¢	$0	+$73	06-09 11:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	400	$43.2K	34,976	26,910	+8,066	Yes	-$3,565	06-07 15:33
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	157	$41.2K	15,133	39,444	-24,311	open	—	07-20 13:26
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	217	$29.3K	21,274	21,274	+0	Yes	+$1,894	09-22 18:56
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	132	$26.4K	15,011	15,011	+0	No	+$565	09-21 20:15
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	310	$24.4K	20,697	20,697	+0	open	—	08-02 22:19
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	192	$18.4K	11,868	11,868	+0	No	+$1,562	06-19 16:23
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?	156	$15.3K	22,608	3,105	+19,503	Yes	-$12,570	06-07 19:50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	102	$15.2K	8,850	8,850	+0	Yes	+$630	09-20 17:01
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	119	$14.0K	8,134	8,134	+0	No	+$1,044	07-31 21:41
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?	263	$13.0K	28,130	10,954	+17,176	Yes	-$10,047	06-17 21:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	161	$12.8K	7,709	7,709	+0	No	+$2,170	08-30 17:20
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	75	$11.2K	7,100	7,100	+0	open	—	10-27 01:48
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	120	$10.5K	6,590	6,590	+0	No	+$1,022	10-07 01:06
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	159	$10.0K	7,084	7,084	+0	No	+$532	08-05 18:29
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	119	$9.9K	5,951	5,951	+0	No	+$1,610	08-31 18:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	66	$9.2K	5,023	5,157	-134	No	+$582	05-25 16:56
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	110	$8.0K	4,663	4,563	+100	No	+$330	07-31 22:21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	93	$7.8K	4,550	4,550	+0	No	+$1,003	08-13 12:48
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	169	$6.8K	5,234	5,234	+0	No	+$223	08-02 13:23
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	38	$5.6K	6,747	0	+6,747	open	—	10-27 01:52
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	107	$5.6K	3,406	3,406	+0	No	+$590	07-24 02:12
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	76	$5.6K	3,383	3,383	+0	No	+$946	08-23 14:33
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	102	$5.5K	3,373	3,373	+0	No	+$321	08-07 20:37
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	82	$5.3K	6,002	6,002	+0	open	—	06-09 11:15
russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	83	$5.2K	4,171	4,171	+0	open	—	10-23 17:56
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	26	$5.1K	3,250	3,250	+0	No	-$148	04-06 18:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	77	$5.0K	5,715	5,715	+0	Yes	-$612	09-22 10:06
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	81	$4.9K	5,635	5,635	+0	Yes	-$3,645	09-24 15:00
2026 us senate election republican odds under 40 by march 31	3	$4.9K	5,107	0	+5,107	No	+$245	03-27 19:28
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	49	$4.8K	4,259	4,259	+0	Yes	+$291	09-05 02:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 06:20:06	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	216	78¢	$169	0xfee1f4…
10-27 01:58:26	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	24¢	$5	0xb77f27…
10-27 01:58:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0xf55272…
10-27 01:57:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x654ac6…
10-27 01:52:57	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,847	88¢	$2,518	0xd73fea…
10-27 01:51:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	250	90¢	$225	0xcefd1d…
10-27 01:50:18	Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	94¢	$75	0x6e37c5…
10-27 01:50:12	Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x98fe65…
10-27 01:49:38	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	299	93¢	$278	0x2cd526…
10-27 01:48:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	800	93¢	$744	0x1e4629…
10-27 01:42:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	250	97¢	$242	0x05b444…
10-27 01:42:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	868	97¢	$839	0x0ed073…
10-27 01:41:14	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xd3711a…
10-27 01:39:57	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x7fde09…
10-26 23:22:24	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x47216a…
10-26 21:31:24	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xa6813c…
10-26 20:55:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0xd39f85…
10-26 20:55:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xc1d37d…
10-26 20:54:00	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0xa4261c…
10-26 20:50:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	300	65¢	$195	0x60b117…
10-26 20:49:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	84	87¢	$73	0x8bf6b0…
10-26 20:29:02	Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x984f9f…
10-26 09:44:20	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	257	97¢	$250	0x1703c3…
10-26 09:44:03	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	137	95¢	$130	0xafe95c…
10-26 09:44:03	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	120	95¢	$114	0x6f7a73…
10-26 01:23:39	Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0xe2b74a…
10-26 01:23:39	Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x7745f7…
10-25 23:40:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	416	80¢	$333	0x5d20e5…
10-25 23:39:42	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	350	95¢	$333	0x6e4d68…
10-25 23:36:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	118	87¢	$102	0x642a72…
10-25 23:33:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x6b1081…
10-25 23:32:15	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	150	95¢	$142	0x8566c5…
10-25 16:50:53	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x6f837a…
10-25 16:50:30	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	150	27¢	$40	0xfc2530…
10-25 16:32:48	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0xc00e99…
10-25 16:18:32	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	29¢	$8	0x536e51…
10-25 16:06:53	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x347262…
10-25 15:34:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0xcca348…
10-25 15:31:30	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	29¢	$13	0xaff2f6…
10-25 10:25:50	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$4	0x50cb24…
10-25 10:25:50	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x3345cc…
10-24 14:41:38	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	250	77¢	$192	0xfb35fb…
10-24 14:40:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	250	79¢	$198	0xcd697b…
10-24 14:40:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	499	98¢	$488	0x3b7355…
10-24 14:39:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	250	87¢	$218	0x6c1e87…
10-24 14:39:11	Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	264	90¢	$238	0x995f50…
10-24 12:02:26	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xfcc70a…
10-24 12:02:26	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xbba175…
10-24 12:02:26	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0xa2dbab…
10-24 12:02:26	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	17	93¢	$15	0x6a9958…
10-24 00:40:26	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	77¢	$192	0x695fc9…
10-23 18:01:44	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	No	BUY	34	95¢	$32	0x7f3367…
10-23 17:56:42	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	89¢	$43	0xa032fb…
10-23 17:56:18	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	92¢	$185	0xb926cd…
10-23 17:54:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	194	88¢	$171	0x0a1ce3…
10-23 17:54:35	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	56	87¢	$48	0x3ad22d…
10-23 09:12:39	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	389	95¢	$369	0x001d08…
10-23 08:00:08	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x22a2d5…
10-23 01:46:18	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	39¢	$18	0x2428f0…
10-23 01:46:09	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x2a8866…
10-23 01:44:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	250	78¢	$195	0x9ea039…
10-23 01:42:29	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x9f4e36…
10-23 01:42:27	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	837	91¢	$762	0x8b6b89…
10-23 01:40:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	750	98¢	$733	0x3cc3ae…
10-23 01:36:59	Will Novak Djokovic announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	250	95¢	$237	0x071df2…
10-20 10:49:27	Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xf6a6c9…
10-20 09:12:18	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	16	65¢	$11	0x251935…
10-20 09:12:11	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	15	90¢	$14	0x9e87d6…
10-20 04:02:45	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	92¢	$34	0xa2e301…
10-20 03:28:02	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x9fae18…
10-20 01:50:05	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x090326…
10-20 01:49:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xf870dd…
10-20 01:49:18	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	121	59¢	$71	0xacb2e6…
10-20 01:49:05	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	125	68¢	$85	0x6f8e91…
10-20 01:19:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	47	90¢	$42	0x3d125a…
10-20 01:14:17	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	74¢	$185	0x166792…
10-20 01:14:06	Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	250	87¢	$218	0x3c5ce4…
10-20 01:13:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	154	90¢	$139	0xd09734…
10-20 01:11:18	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x09e847…
10-20 01:10:47	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	125	70¢	$87	0x0c22d5…
10-20 01:10:23	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xa969a9…
10-20 01:09:12	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	No	BUY	46	94¢	$43	0xe6beb1…
10-20 01:08:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	243	68¢	$165	0x9df016…
10-20 01:08:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	44	86¢	$38	0x3344d7…
10-20 01:06:45	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	154	93¢	$143	0xd43f1c…
10-20 01:05:53	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x09b3da…
10-20 01:03:23	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x79cccc…
10-20 01:01:00	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	160	92¢	$148	0x80d12d…
10-19 15:11:08	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	468	93¢	$435	0xaaaf4a…
10-19 13:37:18	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xdd73ee…
10-19 11:19:09	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	61	95¢	$58	0x769ac5…
10-19 08:34:32	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	108	93¢	$100	0x3b7e8b…
10-19 07:33:23	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	392	81¢	$317	0xc007b4…
10-19 06:56:18	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x2ee9d0…
10-19 05:34:35	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xd35d6f…
10-19 03:12:18	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	358	81¢	$290	0x961239…
10-19 00:08:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	106	88¢	$94	0x936ea3…
10-19 00:06:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xeb681a…
10-19 00:06:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xe62935…
10-19 00:05:29	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	250	92¢	$230	0xfe0500…