Obvious-Seminar — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$173

Unrealized P&L

-$77

Hit rate

94.6%

Resolved (90d)

116

Trades (90d)

184

1,297 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$19.5K

$90.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

$568

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 11-13 14:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 200 days

Categories

Other

93% 88% +$1,756

Sports

5% 76% +$13

Politics

2% 83% -$476

Tech

0% 100% +$29

Crypto

0% 51% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+521	$500	98¢	$513	+$13	09-22 14:18
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+57	$50	48¢	$28	-$22	08-31 14:06
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $144 in November?	No	+24	$20	64¢	$15	-$5	11-11 14:36
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+92	$60	8¢	$7	-$53	11-06 14:33
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $184 in November?	Yes	+13	$10	34¢	$5	-$5	11-11 14:40
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 14?	Yes	+12	$5	0¢	$0	-$5	11-13 14:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4?	4	$2.2K	1,174	1,174	+0	Yes	+$152	05-04 10:21
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 9?	5	$1.8K	1,781	0	+1,781	No	+$21	07-08 00:43
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on August 24?	2	$1.5K	1,522	0	+1,522	No	+$22	08-22 15:55
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 9?	5	$1.5K	1,575	0	+1,575	No	+$75	07-08 22:51
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 15?	5	$1.3K	1,378	0	+1,378	No	+$38	08-14 12:14
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 30?	3	$1.3K	1,313	0	+1,313	No	+$13	07-28 10:28
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 23?	19	$1.2K	1,277	0	+1,277	No	+$124	07-22 23:23
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 30?	7	$1.1K	1,187	0	+1,187	No	+$53	07-29 23:11
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 27?	9	$1.1K	1,138	0	+1,138	No	+$27	07-26 23:07
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 28?	3	$1.0K	1,020	0	+1,020	No	+$12	07-27 14:46
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 7?	2	$1000	1,022	0	+1,022	No	+$22	07-06 10:23
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 20?	1	$1000	1,015	0	+1,015	No	+$15	07-18 16:10
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 2?	4	$1000	1,030	0	+1,030	No	+$30	07-01 23:10
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on November 9?	2	$1000	1,003	0	+1,003	No	+$3	11-08 16:05
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on August 23?	5	$980	1,017	0	+1,017	No	+$37	08-22 15:21
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 16?	5	$920	957	0	+957	No	+$37	08-15 15:33
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on November 9?	1	$900	903	0	+903	No	+$3	11-08 16:02
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 16?	3	$891	615	461	+154	No	+$45	08-15 14:18
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 24?	4	$867	880	0	+880	No	+$13	07-23 16:14
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 7?	5	$855	439	439	+0	No	+$22	05-07 02:37
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 28?	2	$800	808	0	+808	No	+$8	08-26 23:11
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 16?	3	$800	834	0	+834	No	+$34	07-15 10:11
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 22?	4	$800	827	0	+827	No	+$27	08-21 14:51
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 8?	3	$800	813	0	+813	No	+$13	07-07 10:25
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 5?	3	$780	799	0	+799	No	+$18	07-04 08:39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?	5	$779	419	419	+0	No	-$21	07-28 05:37
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 27?	6	$776	525	525	+0	No	+$76	09-27 06:30
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 15?	7	$745	756	0	+756	No	+$11	07-14 03:34
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 22?	7	$735	755	0	+755	No	+$20	07-21 13:52
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 6?	2	$700	707	0	+707	No	+$7	07-05 05:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 14:52:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 14?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x8122a2…
11-11 14:40:19	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $184 in November?	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xb088a2…
11-11 14:36:42	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $144 in November?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xdb7c39…
11-08 16:05:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on November 9?	No	BUY	501	100¢	$500	0xd640a4…
11-08 16:03:55	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on November 9?	Yes	SELL	31	0¢	$0	0xf9ba12…
11-08 16:03:16	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on November 9?	No	BUY	502	100¢	$500	0x13eb74…
11-08 16:02:30	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on November 9?	No	BUY	903	100¢	$900	0x6e6505…
11-08 16:00:01	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on November 9?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0x4844d7…
11-06 14:38:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 7?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x95a867…
11-06 14:33:30	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xdfd8c4…
11-05 14:21:12	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	23	95¢	$22	0x7b9f26…
11-05 14:20:27	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	108	95¢	$102	0xcb6a26…
11-04 23:12:27	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xbea70a…
11-04 14:38:37	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x588bbe…
11-03 14:00:01	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xf5dc6c…
11-01 14:32:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on November 2?	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x063234…
10-26 13:56:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 27?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xec2e0f…
10-25 16:13:36	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0xb05976…
10-24 14:41:17	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 24?	No	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0x8394ea…
10-23 19:07:51	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 24?	No	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x947fee…
10-23 16:04:50	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x3211c4…
10-23 16:02:29	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 24?	No	BUY	401	100¢	$400	0x5c818f…
10-23 15:51:17	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 24?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x467377…
10-21 16:16:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 22?	No	SELL	57	98¢	$56	0x1a008a…
10-21 15:23:23	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 22?	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x705a71…
10-21 11:56:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x18fd84…
10-18 14:00:47	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 19?	No	BUY	501	100¢	$500	0xd7e426…
10-17 14:36:47	highest temperature in taipei on october 18 2026 32c	No	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0x9eff6a…
10-17 04:14:12	highest temperature in taipei on october 18 2026 32c	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x7feff3…
10-17 04:13:57	highest temperature in taipei on october 18 2026 31c	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0x418efe…
10-17 02:38:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 17?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xba0f7f…
10-16 14:57:48	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x299a4b…
10-16 14:52:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0xe7094d…
10-15 15:47:56	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 17?	No	BUY	163	92¢	$150	0xb390d5…
10-15 15:46:44	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 17?	No	BUY	163	91¢	$149	0xdae20f…
10-15 15:46:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 17?	No	BUY	306	98¢	$300	0xb7715e…
10-14 14:39:01	mlb mil lad 2026 10 14	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xe380a1…
10-13 14:33:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x5bd170…
10-13 14:26:53	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on October 14?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x977ab4…
10-12 14:38:47	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x3d28b9…
10-12 14:35:56	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 14?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb07988…
10-12 14:35:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on October 14?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xb18e20…
10-11 14:44:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on October 12?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xe80c31…
10-11 14:36:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on October 12?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb7101c…
10-10 15:55:10	Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?	Yes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x7289c1…
10-10 15:53:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 11?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x6e5c2f…
10-09 04:14:57	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 9?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x2f0b28…
10-09 02:44:56	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 9?	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x5c368e…
10-09 02:09:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 9?	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x77252b…
10-09 02:08:32	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 9?	No	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0xfa198a…
10-09 01:25:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 9?	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x525924…
10-07 16:10:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 8?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xbe8de2…
10-06 15:55:57	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x3a707f…
10-06 15:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x8b0f56…
10-06 15:45:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x94bf92…
10-06 15:41:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x955d2a…
10-04 03:23:07	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 5?	No	SELL	256	86¢	$221	0x30bbf6…
10-03 14:44:39	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 5?	No	BUY	256	78¢	$200	0x88baa6…
10-03 04:08:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x0dcd4c…
10-02 15:06:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x690ca2…
10-01 23:12:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x08411e…
10-01 23:11:38	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 3?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x15d19f…
09-29 15:50:02	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on September 30?	No	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0xda879b…
09-28 05:41:38	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 28?	No	SELL	125	1¢	$2	0x78a596…
09-27 15:34:51	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x8f9c56…
09-27 15:27:32	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xd38511…
09-27 15:26:47	Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x32b05f…
09-27 15:26:18	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xa66416…
09-27 06:30:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 27?	No	SELL	467	80¢	$373	0xa769b7…
09-27 06:01:30	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 27?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xa2cc73…
09-27 06:00:57	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 27?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x432dc3…
09-27 05:14:44	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 28?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0xe188fd…
09-27 04:45:48	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 27?	No	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x4a1ef8…
09-26 14:52:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 27?	No	BUY	121	82¢	$100	0x7e958d…
09-26 14:50:45	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 28?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf5efbc…
09-26 14:49:08	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 27?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x69dce9…
09-26 14:47:59	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 27?	No	SELL	46	95¢	$44	0xb3d3ec…
09-26 12:04:51	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 27?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xf9a538…
09-26 11:44:08	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 27?	No	BUY	271	74¢	$200	0x36baae…
09-25 15:37:18	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 27?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x714b20…
09-23 23:15:20	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 24?	No	SELL	58	96¢	$56	0x95a45d…
09-22 14:21:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 24?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x4f5776…
09-22 14:18:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x297743…
09-20 13:23:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x97c50f…
09-19 06:32:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 19?	No	SELL	57	0¢	$0	0x988815…
09-18 15:29:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 19?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xb50555…
09-17 15:07:58	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x68c67c…
09-17 15:07:49	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x5f8ebe…
09-16 14:39:00	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x757027…
09-12 15:37:19	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 13?	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xc9a91f…
09-12 15:36:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 13?	No	BUY	303	99¢	$300	0xf0244c…
09-12 01:48:18	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 12?	No	BUY	216	93¢	$200	0xc50856…
09-11 15:24:52	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x57f894…
09-11 15:21:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x24eb87…
09-11 15:11:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 12?	No	BUY	313	96¢	$300	0x83f26e…
09-11 15:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on September 12?	No	BUY	511	98¢	$500	0xfeb57a…
09-07 15:13:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 8?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x4e454c…
09-07 15:10:06	Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x6b2bad…
09-05 16:19:45	Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x191d63…
09-05 16:14:52	Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on September 7?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0xd20c04…