Realized P&L
+$986
Unrealized P&L
+$220
Hit rate
65.5%
Resolved
169
Trades
97,295
lifetime
Volume
$3.03M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$31
Open exposure
$628
25 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 18:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 20 days
Categories
Other
72% 42% +$983
Politics
17% 43% +$582
Sports
8% 30% $-621
Crypto
3% 38% +$42
Pop-Culture
0%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 727 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? No +243 $201 94¢ $229 +$28 07-04 18:17
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +299 $108 36¢ $108 +$0 06-18 19:24
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +82 $24 60¢ $50 +$26 07-07 17:28
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -321 $-45 12¢ $-40 +$5 07-16 01:48
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? No -971 $-64 $-34 +$29 07-13 23:30
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes -796 $-51 $-34 +$18 06-01 08:26
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +35 $33 93¢ $33 +$0 07-20 19:26
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes -301 $-26 $-23 +$3 07-17 20:30
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Yes +300 $30 $21 $-9 06-09 18:55
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes -78 $-14 16¢ $-12 +$2 06-03 14:44
City Protocol FDV above $350M one day after launch? Yes +49 $5 23¢ $11 +$6 06-20 21:36
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes -39 $-11 24¢ $-9 +$2 06-22 14:52
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? Yes +202 $18 $7 $-11 07-16 19:03
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes -93 $1 $-7 $-8 07-20 16:02
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? Yes -48 $-6 11¢ $-5 +$1 07-20 14:46
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? No +15 $2 13¢ $2 +$0 07-15 16:53
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No +1 $-2 96¢ $1 +$3 07-01 06:36
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +1 $-59 64¢ $1 +$60 06-18 19:24
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +1 $-29 55¢ $1 +$29 07-14 16:46
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +1 $4 44¢ $0 $-4 07-12 06:12
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No +0 $-4 98¢ $0 +$4 06-24 11:16
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +0 $-9 40¢ $0 +$9 07-17 23:01
Will Travis Scott have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes -0 $-0 11¢ $-0 +$0 07-16 15:55
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No +0 $-18 12¢ $0 +$18 06-14 14:03
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes +1 $-8 $0 +$8 06-25 23:13