Realized P&L
+$986
Unrealized P&L
+$276
Hit rate
65.5%
Resolved
169
Trades
95,393
lifetime
Volume
$2.95M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$31
Open exposure
$1.16K
27 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 20 days
Categories
Other
72% 42% +$983
Politics
17% 43% +$582
Sports
8% 30% $-621
Crypto
3% 38% +$42
Pop-Culture
0%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 1184 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? No +293 $249 94¢ $274 +$25 06-15 19:01
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No +261 $249 96¢ $251 +$2 06-24 02:14
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +300 $159 57¢ $171 +$11 06-18 10:06
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +299 $108 52¢ $156 +$48 06-18 19:24
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No -83 $-82 100¢ $-83 $-1 05-29 04:59
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +194 $57 31¢ $60 +$3 06-29 21:40
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes -796 $-51 $-31 +$21 06-01 08:26
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? Yes +300 $24 10¢ $28 +$4 06-20 15:14
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Yes +300 $30 $25 $-5 06-09 18:55
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes -78 $-14 22¢ $-18 $-4 06-03 14:44
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes +207 $27 $17 $-10 06-15 13:17
City Protocol FDV above $350M one day after launch? Yes +49 $5 33¢ $16 +$11 06-20 21:36
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -163 $-23 $-15 +$8 06-17 13:28
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes -39 $-11 26¢ $-10 +$1 06-22 14:52
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No +2 $-0 100¢ $2 +$2 06-12 06:01
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? No -33 $-24 $-2 +$22 06-25 21:36
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Yes +299 $9 $2 $-8 06-17 16:39
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes -152 $-25 $-2 +$24 06-18 21:17
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? No +1 $-2 99¢ $1 +$3 06-25 05:17
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +1 $-59 48¢ $0 +$60 06-18 19:24
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Yes +59 $3 $0 $-3 06-30 08:42
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No +0 $-4 97¢ $0 +$4 06-24 11:16
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +0 $-30 43¢ $0 +$30 06-17 02:49
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No +0 $-18 11¢ $0 +$18 06-14 14:03
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes +1 $-8 $0 +$8 06-25 23:13
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes -2 $-2 $-0 +$2 06-11 17:14
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Yes +0 $0 $0 $-0 06-25 10:37