Realized P&L
-$8.52K
Unrealized P&L
-$140
Hit rate
62.9%
Resolved
7,899
Trades
142,101
lifetime
Volume
$3.97M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$28
Open exposure
$3.24K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-01 16:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 299 days
Categories
Other
75% 37% -$19,054
Politics
15% 51% +$10,347
Sports
7% 44% -$756
Crypto
2% 30% +$2,125
Tech
1% 26% -$1,630
Pop-Culture
0% 69% +$452
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 616 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes -1,087 -$156 70¢ $-760 -$604 10-28 18:15
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes -1,190 -$296 26¢ $-310 -$14 10-29 13:43
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +402 $301 64¢ $255 -$46 10-31 05:47
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +655 $170 36¢ $233 +$62 10-29 17:48
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No +847 $71 26¢ $216 +$145 11-01 00:55
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $67 40¢ $118 +$52 10-15 16:48
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $98 38¢ $112 +$15 10-24 02:17
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? No +371 $161 30¢ $111 -$49 10-22 01:11
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +295 $121 37¢ $109 -$12 10-30 04:05
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes +299 $87 36¢ $109 +$22 10-31 09:52
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +294 $71 30¢ $88 +$18 10-19 13:38
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +288 $88 30¢ $85 -$3 10-25 04:35
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $90 26¢ $76 -$14 09-23 15:02
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +182 $55 40¢ $73 +$18 10-23 21:02
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes -1,749 -$208 4¢ $-71 +$137 10-17 10:48
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes +300 $102 20¢ $62 -$41 10-01 10:29
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $45 18¢ $56 +$10 10-08 10:48
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -854 -$95 6¢ $-55 +$41 09-25 13:46
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $117 18¢ $54 -$63 08-23 09:32
Blue wave in 2026? No -474 -$83 10¢ $-45 +$38 10-30 11:52
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No +59 $29 74¢ $44 +$15 10-30 12:06
Paine Lions vs. Jacksonville Dolphins Paine Lions +78 $14 41¢ $32 +$18 10-30 16:20
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes — +299 $46 9¢ $27 -$19 09-22 18:49
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes -796 -$51 3¢ $-25 +$26 06-01 08:26
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +227 $15 11¢ $25 +$10 09-22 18:01
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +100 $25 19¢ $19 -$6 08-13 11:35
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes -301 -$26 6¢ $-19 +$7 07-17 20:30
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026? No +177 $25 10¢ $18 -$7 10-29 14:54
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes -282 -$44 6¢ $-17 +$27 08-26 15:34
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Yes -675 -$91 2¢ $-16 +$75 10-27 16:18