Welcome-Father — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$72

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

35.5%

Resolved

112

Trades

158

lifetime

Volume

$309

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$65

1 position

First seen

2026-01-16

last 05-17 16:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

47% 4% -$44

Crypto

45% 37% -$25

Politics

8% 0% -$3

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-17).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No		-72	-$45	91¢	$-65	-$20	05-06 16:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
AI bubble burst in 2026?	1	$45	0	72	-72	open	—	05-06 16:36
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$34	36	0	+36	Yes	+$2	01-16 06:59
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	6	$22	15	15	+0	Yes	$0	05-12 03:41
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	3	$9	10	10	+0	Yes	+$2	05-16 15:34
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	2	$9	5	5	+0	Yes	$0	05-09 19:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	2	$8	13	0	+13	Up	-$8	05-16 15:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	05-16 13:28
Will Xavi be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	5	$3	91	0	+91	No	-$3	05-09 19:01
Will Enzo Maresca be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	5	$3	100	0	+100	No	-$3	05-09 19:01
Will Xabi Alonso be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	5	$3	136	0	+136	No	-$3	05-09 19:01
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	7	$3	143	0	+143	No	-$3	05-09 19:01
Will Kieran McKenna be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	5	$3	143	0	+143	No	-$3	05-09 19:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Down	-$3	05-17 15:15
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	5	$3	130	0	+130	No	-$3	05-09 19:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Up	-$3	05-16 17:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Down	-$3	05-17 14:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$3	5	0	+5	Down	-$3	05-16 18:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Down	-$3	05-16 18:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Down	-$3	05-16 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Down	-$3	05-16 20:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Up	+$2	05-16 17:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Up	+$2	05-16 16:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Up	+$2	05-16 20:17
Will Thomas Tuchel be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	1	$3	200	0	+200	No	-$3	05-09 19:00
Will Darren Fletcher be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	1	$3	150	0	+150	No	-$3	05-09 18:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Up	+$2	05-16 15:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Up	-$3	05-16 17:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Up	-$3	05-16 16:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	2	$3	5	0	+5	Up	-$3	05-17 16:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Up	-$3	05-16 16:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 16:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xfb959d…
05-17 16:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0xf0e59c…
05-17 15:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xaee075…
05-17 15:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x9cdc91…
05-17 15:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xf10c5f…
05-17 15:15:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x1b1523…
05-17 15:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x39928e…
05-17 14:58:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x3cc0fc…
05-17 14:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x17f7d9…
05-17 14:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x39421a…
05-17 14:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xfe4d39…
05-17 14:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x638727…
05-17 14:11:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xa8514f…
05-17 13:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf4729e…
05-17 13:51:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xe3aa8d…
05-17 13:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x478aff…
05-17 13:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x9a5fad…
05-17 13:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xc24659…
05-17 13:11:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x03bad3…
05-17 12:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x8cf56e…
05-17 12:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x92f8be…
05-17 12:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x0f2db7…
05-17 12:41:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x39d673…
05-16 20:28:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x395e1d…
05-16 20:22:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x4be3ca…
05-16 20:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x398bf3…
05-16 20:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc14a3c…
05-16 20:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x5caa70…
05-16 19:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x85830e…
05-16 19:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0x53b985…
05-16 18:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x1728eb…
05-16 18:46:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xec130d…
05-16 18:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x9c3288…
05-16 18:36:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xd0e657…
05-16 18:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x21caea…
05-16 18:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x48c362…
05-16 18:16:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x214e12…
05-16 18:16:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x019e51…
05-16 18:11:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x5bda15…
05-16 18:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x5e5ddd…
05-16 17:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xf850f0…
05-16 17:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xabc4d5…
05-16 17:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x798324…
05-16 17:36:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x3c3e6d…
05-16 17:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xb5b694…
05-16 17:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xd0f305…
05-16 17:21:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xdbe7fb…
05-16 17:16:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x2a0b33…
05-16 17:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x9150cb…
05-16 16:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xc00f42…
05-16 16:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xfab891…
05-16 16:31:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x76a036…
05-16 16:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3ff163…
05-16 16:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x276b87…
05-16 16:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x5de7c9…
05-16 16:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x67497e…
05-16 16:02:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x0a1e51…
05-16 15:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x2b1f59…
05-16 15:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xaadafc…
05-16 15:36:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xc9af94…
05-16 15:34:14	Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x5ba51b…
05-16 15:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xeac518…
05-16 15:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x6b252c…
05-16 15:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x9bc09f…
05-16 13:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xd97bed…
05-14 01:45:19	Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	No	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xecd0bc…
05-12 06:40:55	Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xc87898…
05-12 06:39:31	Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x436dfb…
05-12 06:37:47	Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	25	2¢	$0	0x7aaa63…
05-12 03:41:11	Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x98f00c…
05-12 02:40:29	Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x2d7c88…
05-12 02:37:19	Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xd22ea0…
05-12 01:32:30	Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xd625d0…
05-12 01:16:10	Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x875297…
05-12 00:11:18	Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x03c3a0…
05-12 00:04:48	Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0xb9a923…
05-12 00:04:44	Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xcb7617…
05-11 23:55:35	Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x4b4c14…
05-11 23:50:25	Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	SELL	17	3¢	$1	0x35366d…
05-11 22:46:55	Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd61ce0…
05-11 18:15:39	Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	0¢	$1	0xc0bd43…
05-11 17:25:09	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	0¢	$1	0x26883f…
05-10 01:55:24	Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	0¢	$0	0x2ee11b…
05-10 00:15:12	Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	37	2¢	$1	0x4cc75d…
05-10 00:14:09	Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x12777b…
05-10 00:04:35	Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	39	2¢	$1	0x85d949…
05-10 00:04:32	Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x9dc415…
05-10 00:04:30	Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x9093e4…
05-10 00:04:25	Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xf08532…
05-10 00:04:20	Will Pete Ricketts be the Republican nominee for Senate in Nebraska?	No	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x3c5ee2…
05-10 00:04:16	Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	No	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x7334bf…
05-10 00:04:14	Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02?	No	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xa2f5ab…
05-09 22:30:58	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	0¢	$0	0x005b97…
05-09 19:28:44	Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xf024b7…
05-09 19:01:10	Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0xeef8a1…
05-09 19:01:10	Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$1	0xe4b4a0…
05-09 19:01:10	Will Xabi Alonso be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	BUY	28	2¢	$1	0xd1b69b…
05-09 19:01:10	Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x82746a…
05-09 19:01:10	Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	BUY	46	2¢	$1	0x64dfdf…
05-09 19:01:10	Will Kieran McKenna be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x2e91e3…