Dark-Cowbell — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$75

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.2%

Resolved

255

Trades

376

lifetime

Volume

$1.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 08-12 17:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Other

52% 53% -$38

Politics

25% 63% -$17

Crypto

15% 67% -$20

Tech

7% 62% +$0

Sports

1% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
dota2 bb4 liquid 2026 03 15	8	$45	56	56	+0	Team Liquid	-$1	03-15 11:38
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	4	$31	19	19	+0	No	-$5	08-12 02:21
Will England win?	3	$30	31	0	+31	No	+$1	07-12 03:55
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte3	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$0	07-15 17:44
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026?	2	$28	15	15	+0	No	$0	07-10 07:14
iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	2	$28	15	15	+0	No	$0	07-09 09:44
us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	2	$28	15	15	+0	No	$0	07-18 18:45
will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	2	$28	15	15	+0	Yes	$0	07-08 16:22
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte3	2	$28	14	14	+0	No	$0	07-17 21:15
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	2	$28	15	15	+0	No	-$1	07-08 21:44
gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	2	$28	14	14	+0	Yes	$0	07-08 11:36
will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	2	$28	15	15	+0	No	-$2	07-17 10:48
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026?	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	$0	07-10 18:43
Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026?	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	$0	07-10 09:43
iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	$0	07-25 00:20
iran full airspace closure by july 21	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	+$0	07-21 23:58
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	+$0	07-24 00:19
england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	2	$27	16	16	+0	Yes	-$4	07-05 01:08
spx opens up or down on july 27 2026	2	$27	14	14	+0	Up	$0	07-27 05:15
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	$0	07-24 05:25
iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	2	$26	14	14	+0	Yes	$0	07-19 11:45
iran full airspace closure by july 27	2	$26	14	14	+0	No	$0	07-25 22:24
will wti reach 100 by july 20 2026	2	$26	14	14	+0	No	$0	07-23 17:16
will russia enter serhiivka by july 31	2	$26	14	14	+0	No	$0	07-24 07:55
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?	2	$26	14	14	+0	Yes	$0	07-26 03:19
nyc air quality index below 100 by july 19 20260717052446992	2	$26	14	14	+0	Yes	-$1	07-19 08:46
mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	2	$26	14	14	+0	No	-$1	07-20 17:04
will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	2	$26	14	14	+0	No	-$1	07-20 17:36
Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?	2	$26	13	13	+0	No	$0	07-20 19:54
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	$0	07-27 07:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 17:18:13	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x1d6f88…
08-12 17:13:57	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x80ae32…
08-12 16:24:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	SELL	9	72¢	$7	0x07751e…
08-12 16:13:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	No	SELL	8	71¢	$6	0x180942…
08-12 11:58:34	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 0.2%?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc06f12…
08-12 02:24:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x9d47cd…
08-12 02:21:25	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	SELL	9	61¢	$5	0xbf8134…
08-12 02:21:22	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x99e2f9…
08-08 04:00:36	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0xa9dfc2…
08-08 01:44:34	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x5ea83c…
08-07 19:26:25	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x652813…
08-06 16:00:20	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x1456e9…
08-06 01:26:03	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0xb2b897…
08-06 00:54:30	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xec3582…
08-05 06:25:50	israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0xa4b5ac…
08-05 06:23:47	israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x3c0cb2…
08-05 05:56:35	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 6	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0xcde93c…
08-05 05:40:54	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 6	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x7e1bd6…
08-05 03:49:32	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0xfdf659…
08-05 03:18:06	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0x15fd08…
08-05 00:59:59	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xca7cb4…
08-05 00:27:08	will wayne rooney attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630265	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xc308a8…
08-05 00:18:48	will wayne rooney attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630265	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x716c3a…
08-01 06:18:42	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xcf251e…
07-28 13:24:11	will spider man brand new day score at least 95 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026314	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x946b0d…
07-28 04:34:45	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0x7d5af3…
07-27 07:21:55	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0x59f2b6…
07-27 07:21:54	Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x1f7faa…
07-27 07:14:27	Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x3c013a…
07-27 07:01:43	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x2de855…
07-27 05:15:49	spx opens up or down on july 27 2026	Up	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0xf38889…
07-27 05:10:57	spx opens up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0x581bea…
07-26 09:00:37	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x7fd76a…
07-26 03:19:16	Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x93e72f…
07-26 03:12:15	Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0xe51389…
07-25 22:24:55	iran full airspace closure by july 27	No	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x1c4e70…
07-25 21:57:46	iran full airspace closure by july 27	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0xa3f0c2…
07-25 04:04:51	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x9bb620…
07-25 00:20:10	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0xc9963e…
07-24 23:59:10	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	No	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0xf70247…
07-24 08:42:07	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x6b8b6e…
07-24 07:55:21	will russia enter serhiivka by july 31	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x16e477…
07-24 07:28:30	will russia enter serhiivka by july 31	No	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0x9129f5…
07-24 05:25:22	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0xf3b65c…
07-24 04:56:01	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x28ebe9…
07-24 00:19:21	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$14	0xceae28…
07-24 00:00:54	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0xa8a801…
07-23 17:16:03	will wti reach 100 by july 20 2026	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0xd30b79…
07-23 17:01:07	will wti reach 100 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x6e5fa8…
07-23 07:23:54	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x2670d6…
07-23 03:03:49	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x884ef9…
07-21 23:58:40	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	14	96¢	$14	0xb4071e…
07-20 19:54:10	Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x4dcb7d…
07-20 19:41:21	Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x8028ed…
07-20 17:36:00	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	14	91¢	$13	0x29366c…
07-20 17:09:57	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xfaa33f…
07-20 17:06:43	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x15dfb7…
07-20 17:06:42	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x6744f8…
07-20 17:04:31	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	14	91¢	$13	0xb6c63c…
07-19 16:00:27	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x9227d7…
07-19 15:15:54	Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	14	83¢	$12	0x1bbdb4…
07-19 11:45:21	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	Yes	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x1e999e…
07-19 11:34:16	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	Yes	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xd7cb53…
07-19 11:21:43	Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x395393…
07-19 08:46:42	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 19 20260717052446992	Yes	SELL	14	90¢	$13	0xfbe667…
07-19 08:08:10	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 19 20260717052446992	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x97d60c…
07-18 18:45:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x3f36a5…
07-18 18:31:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x0b6642…
07-17 21:15:25	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte3	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x3ef0c8…
07-17 21:01:58	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte3	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xf36cbe…
07-17 10:48:12	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	SELL	15	87¢	$13	0x0670c9…
07-17 10:29:39	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x278581…
07-15 17:44:55	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals jude bellingham gte2	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0xb8978d…
07-15 17:44:53	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte3	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xf47ccb…
07-14 21:39:17	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte3	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xc42151…
07-14 21:25:49	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals jude bellingham gte2	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x6fb4ad…
07-14 04:00:11	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 goals kylian mbappe gte3	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0xc3c7e0…
07-13 11:47:53	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xb03723…
07-12 03:55:16	Will England win?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf4494a…
07-12 03:54:13	Will England win?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x5e39d0…
07-12 03:53:10	Will England win?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x398b7c…
07-11 22:52:26	iran successfully targets shipping by july 12	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x7d2659…
07-11 22:49:19	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xe1dad5…
07-11 10:46:28	Will BN win the 2026 Johor general elections?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x1ae504…
07-11 10:43:10	Will PH win the 2026 Johor general elections?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0x300ea7…
07-10 22:02:59	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte3	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0x0633fc…
07-10 18:43:29	Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x75f55d…
07-10 18:34:43	Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x9797db…
07-10 11:24:41	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x5fe39b…
07-10 09:43:40	Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0x97a43b…
07-10 09:25:22	Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xfb7713…
07-10 07:14:05	Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0xbba91c…
07-10 07:00:49	Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x376cb9…
07-09 09:44:34	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0xc33d32…
07-09 09:25:35	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xbe959d…
07-09 04:21:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x0ed141…
07-08 21:44:01	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	15	87¢	$13	0xa2075f…
07-08 18:26:43	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x8d9b7d…
07-08 16:22:41	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x0d261c…
07-08 15:33:37	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x1643b3…