Arctic-Chick — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$53

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

120

Trades

144

lifetime

Volume

$1.33K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-29 17:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

54% 95% +$4

Politics

34% 89% +$49

Crypto

10% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$155	85	85	+0	No	+$7	10-28 05:07
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	4	$115	77	39	+38	No	+$0	08-13 15:51
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$88	92	0	+92	Yes	+$3	10-29 17:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	3	$82	51	34	+17	No	+$1	08-26 18:23
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$80	40	40	+0	No	+$0	09-07 13:03
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	2	$80	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 01:21
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	2	$76	38	38	+0	Yes	+$0	08-12 18:26
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	1	$41	42	0	+42	Yes	+$1	10-02 09:33
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	10-09 08:00
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	1	$40	41	0	+41	No	+$0	09-21 17:40
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	1	$40	41	0	+41	Yes	+$1	10-12 00:50
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$39	40	0	+40	No	+$1	08-05 08:32
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$37	38	0	+38	No	+$0	08-14 19:38
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$37	38	0	+38	No	+$0	08-15 23:04
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-21 23:31
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	1	$31	32	0	+32	No	+$1	09-27 17:10
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	06-30 03:01
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in August?	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	08-28 13:21
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	07-30 23:58
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$15	57	9	+48	Yes	+$38	10-17 21:22
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	05-30 16:20
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-28 12:34
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	2	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	04-19 23:22
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-01 03:07
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	09-27 05:46
will moonshot have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-17 04:35
gc hit 3000 low jan 2026 687 416 415 372	1	$4	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-12 22:38
will ethereum dip to 1400 in january 2026 585	1	$4	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-15 01:04
Will Solana dip to $60 in September?	1	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	09-23 15:00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	1	$4	4	0	+4	Yes	+$0	07-30 07:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:45:01	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	92	97¢	$88	0xf909db…
10-28 05:07:58	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	85	95¢	$81	0x8f6117…
10-27 22:03:39	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	85	87¢	$74	0x4d0e48…
10-24 02:06:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x9c19d9…
10-24 02:06:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	169	0¢	$0	0x960482…
10-24 02:06:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x330297…
10-24 02:05:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1734bc…
10-24 02:05:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0xefabf9…
10-24 02:05:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x42e9a9…
10-24 02:05:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x3b0054…
10-24 02:05:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x31e77f…
10-17 21:22:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	48	23¢	$11	0x5b4e79…
10-17 12:22:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0x7b978c…
10-12 00:50:18	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x27d0fc…
10-09 08:00:30	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x03eabb…
10-08 17:14:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x3c99e4…
10-02 09:33:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0xbb3af2…
10-01 03:07:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfba6ce…
10-01 03:07:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9c8c4b…
09-27 17:10:39	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0xea485e…
09-27 05:46:03	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x296eb8…
09-23 15:00:43	Will Solana dip to $60 in September?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x8f79a5…
09-21 17:40:00	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$40	0x6806f9…
09-10 01:21:43	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x32e831…
09-10 00:42:43	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xa73413…
09-07 13:03:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x498113…
09-07 01:40:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x73e918…
08-28 13:21:15	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in August?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf957f7…
08-26 18:23:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0xf6f094…
08-25 15:37:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0x414448…
08-24 08:28:04	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0xdf79c0…
08-24 07:38:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0x94a91d…
08-24 02:39:48	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd72dea…
08-23 15:37:03	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0xec2c53…
08-22 18:40:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	168	0¢	$0	0x8bc8ee…
08-22 02:23:57	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x73db43…
08-21 23:31:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xd9eaab…
08-21 18:15:09	will ethereum dip to 1500 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa733a9…
08-18 09:03:18	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfaaae7…
08-15 23:04:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	38	100¢	$37	0x00afd7…
08-14 19:38:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	38	100¢	$37	0x495c2f…
08-14 12:59:28	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc1ba4a…
08-13 15:51:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x93e15e…
08-13 14:45:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x597178…
08-13 14:42:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xdfc726…
08-13 03:08:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0xd51198…
08-12 18:26:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x0f47ec…
08-09 17:19:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xf7bfaa…
08-09 09:21:12	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x797c7c…
08-08 02:05:04	will wti dip to 50 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x932e4e…
08-05 08:32:11	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x25d8c8…
07-30 23:58:44	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x7a7ed8…
07-30 07:36:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4bc32f…
07-29 13:52:27	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3b3862…
07-28 20:38:11	will ethereum reach 2300 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x35799c…
07-27 08:53:43	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb9bef9…
07-26 02:10:03	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc3a8b5…
07-25 15:44:16	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026 444	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9f84fb…
07-25 12:52:48	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc2fede…
07-24 23:51:22	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026 367	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xc2f973…
07-24 16:14:48	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d7014…
07-22 12:36:46	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x27bd2f…
07-21 11:38:28	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x8b6264…
07-20 21:33:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x090656…
07-20 15:32:27	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2ff3cf…
07-14 01:20:46	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc4035b…
07-05 23:44:17	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9b686c…
06-30 03:01:10	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x94bbec…
06-28 12:34:46	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc603d4…
06-28 10:01:32	will coin reach 195 in june 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe1b897…
06-27 10:47:07	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x024139…
05-30 16:20:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xaccc15…
05-13 17:49:05	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x273635…
05-11 19:44:13	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x87f63c…
05-10 14:16:14	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x900fce…
05-10 05:56:33	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7ab8cc…
05-09 07:09:27	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf51981…
05-09 07:04:48	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x6e6b0a…
05-09 02:21:53	Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xa72f80…
05-07 23:49:50	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xfc8109…
05-07 10:22:58	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xde5afe…
05-06 16:28:25	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1e8a6a…
05-05 23:53:22	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x381238…
05-05 23:04:02	Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x98046c…
05-05 04:36:20	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x860752…
04-30 21:54:08	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9f557b…
04-22 22:53:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x38afe5…
04-21 13:04:58	Will Solana dip to $30 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc08c4c…
04-20 07:52:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0xb930ee…
04-19 23:22:28	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbee79b…
04-19 11:45:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x027f2e…
04-19 01:28:42	Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc144c2…
04-17 17:06:20	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xd2c9a0…
04-17 02:41:26	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa6d9a5…
04-15 21:37:30	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc43a14…
04-15 01:48:50	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd52713…
04-14 12:34:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x635cc3…
04-13 13:59:29	Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x91d549…
04-13 10:23:17	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xc2af8e…
04-06 14:12:13	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe25b47…