Elated-Grandfather — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$784

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved (90d)

703

Trades (90d)

3,182

16,292 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$33.9K

$287.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-14 16:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 194 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 48% -$2,324

Politics

8% 41% -$359

Other

8% 49% -$82

Sports

0% 17% -$10

Tech

0% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 550 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No		-1	-$1	85¢	$-1	$0	05-26 18:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	178	$7.1K	49,295	49,293	+2	Yes	-$236	08-12 11:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	117	$5.0K	15,025	15,025	+0	No	+$139	08-08 01:25
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	113	$2.4K	9,217	9,217	+0	Yes	+$46	08-02 03:12
bitcoin up or down january 16 1am et	8	$2.3K	1,594	1,594	+0	Up	+$102	01-16 07:00
bitcoin up or down january 14 12pm et	5	$2.2K	1,521	1,521	+0	Down	+$822	01-14 18:01
bitcoin up or down january 16 5am et	15	$2.1K	1,271	1,835	-563	Down	-$97	01-16 11:03
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	49	$2.0K	8,879	8,879	+0	Yes	+$44	08-08 17:59
bitcoin up or down january 16 3am et	4	$1.8K	928	1,309	-381	Up	+$46	01-16 09:01
bitcoin up or down january 15 8am et	14	$1.7K	1,236	1,236	+0	Down	-$36	01-15 13:57
bitcoin up or down february 28 3am et	13	$1.7K	1,750	1,401	+348	Down	-$140	02-28 08:27
bitcoin up or down january 21 11pm et	27	$1.6K	1,055	1,055	+0	Up	-$33	01-22 05:00
bitcoin up or down january 12 7am et	3	$1.4K	742	742	+0	Up	+$77	01-12 13:00
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	20	$1.4K	2,768	2,768	+0	No	-$1	08-19 01:59
ethereum up or down january 15 8am et	5	$1.4K	801	801	+0	Up	+$2	01-15 14:00
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	55	$1.4K	3,492	3,492	+0	open	—	11-05 05:02
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	23	$1.4K	9,161	9,161	+0	No	-$92	08-12 15:44
bitcoin up or down january 15 7am et	7	$1.3K	948	948	+0	Up	+$234	01-15 12:50
ethereum up or down january 15 5am et	8	$1.3K	1,019	1,019	+0	Down	+$1	01-15 10:57
bitcoin up or down february 24 9am et	28	$1.2K	946	946	+0	Up	+$51	02-24 14:49
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	41	$1.2K	8,900	8,900	+0	Yes	+$7	08-17 15:43
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award?	30	$1.2K	949	949	+0	Yes	+$153	10-16 17:16
bitcoin up or down january 20 5am et	32	$1.2K	764	764	+0	Up	+$28	01-20 10:42
bitcoin up or down january 15 3am et	7	$1.1K	1,586	1,586	+0	Up	-$418	01-15 08:59
ethereum up or down january 16 5am et	4	$1.1K	668	668	+0	Down	+$61	01-16 10:45
xrp up or down january 15 5am et	6	$1.1K	781	781	+0	Down	+$24	01-15 10:40
bitcoin up or down january 12 6am et	2	$1.1K	684	684	+0	Up	+$301	01-12 12:01
bitcoin up or down march 22 2026 4pm et	5	$1.1K	777	666	+111	Down	+$3	03-22 20:43
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	34	$1.0K	3,281	3,281	+0	Yes	+$15	08-04 14:01
bitcoin up or down january 25 1am et	20	$1.0K	908	908	+0	Down	-$21	01-25 06:30
bitcoin up or down february 27 8am et	16	$1.0K	943	943	+0	Up	-$5	02-27 13:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 16:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x797c20…
11-14 16:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x8bee65…
11-14 16:30:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xa7df63…
11-14 16:27:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xd478b8…
11-14 16:20:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x8d8b0e…
11-14 16:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x06df47…
11-14 16:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xe0cf1c…
11-14 16:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x7a1a15…
11-14 16:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0xd5a12b…
11-14 16:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x320541…
11-14 16:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x64829f…
11-14 16:06:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	8	90¢	$8	0xf586bc…
11-14 16:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x9f96f5…
11-14 16:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x9231f0…
11-14 16:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x69f21b…
11-14 16:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x6a1572…
11-14 15:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x53636d…
11-14 15:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xb81438…
11-14 15:53:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x316e8d…
11-14 15:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x5d72d1…
11-14 15:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0x418687…
11-14 15:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x320e90…
11-14 15:51:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0xc66246…
11-14 15:50:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xb230c6…
11-14 15:47:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x956e56…
11-14 15:46:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x20e7f1…
11-14 15:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xfc5884…
11-14 15:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0xa04a85…
11-14 15:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x3a1ffb…
11-14 15:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x310a87…
11-14 15:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xa8b55f…
11-14 15:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x448039…
11-14 15:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xe323a0…
11-14 15:45:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x859d89…
11-14 15:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb655f6…
11-14 15:41:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0xfaa5e1…
11-14 15:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x850965…
11-14 15:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xdd2d1b…
11-14 15:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x30aa26…
11-14 15:36:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x6ce873…
11-14 15:35:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xa907ea…
11-14 15:35:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xc4ea3a…
11-14 15:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	28	46¢	$13	0x9b7815…
11-14 15:26:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xf43cd1…
11-14 15:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xb84c0f…
11-14 15:25:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x77f693…
11-14 15:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xd68d82…
11-14 15:23:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	28	9¢	$2	0x0af433…
11-14 15:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x79573c…
11-14 15:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	15	69¢	$10	0xc4ecba…
11-14 15:20:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0xf87a96…
11-14 15:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xc3ae71…
11-14 15:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xbdbc37…
11-14 15:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0xc251c2…
11-14 15:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0x662e1c…
11-14 15:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x1bb566…
11-14 15:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0xb9a37d…
11-14 15:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0x521ed0…
11-14 15:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xcf0f94…
11-14 15:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x2d0f00…
11-14 15:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb1a577…
11-14 15:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xfe2b34…
11-14 15:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xd1c6d7…
11-14 15:05:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x668a9b…
11-14 15:03:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x2be070…
11-14 15:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x0073c1…
11-14 15:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x4be258…
11-14 14:59:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xf6a7b3…
11-14 14:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	61¢	$7	0x034d53…
11-14 14:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0xa76e8f…
11-14 14:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x1e0975…
11-14 14:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xa47de7…
11-14 14:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xc3f489…
11-14 14:37:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x55fb49…
11-14 14:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe5d332…
11-14 14:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x2b6e3e…
11-14 14:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x9c9cb0…
11-14 14:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x09b9a6…
11-14 14:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	9	61¢	$5	0xe6eefb…
11-14 14:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x05c129…
11-14 14:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xa4e5c1…
11-14 14:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x14aeb4…
11-14 14:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xd6f5db…
11-14 14:27:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x93a99f…
11-14 14:27:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x4abee8…
11-14 14:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x433861…
11-14 14:20:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x237a1d…
11-14 14:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x4fb9d1…
11-14 14:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x3f2516…
11-14 14:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0x733559…
11-14 14:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0xa5f9cf…
11-14 14:10:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xcc2666…
11-14 14:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x4287f2…
11-14 14:08:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xf1bb46…
11-14 14:08:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x276fac…
11-14 14:08:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0x6164b6…
11-14 14:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xea0d15…
11-14 14:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0xfc02f4…
11-14 14:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa274a1…
11-14 14:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x6ede27…