Sweet-Failure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$320

Unrealized P&L

+$52.7K

Hit rate

72.2%

Resolved

Trades

10,591

lifetime

Volume

$3.69M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$349

Open exposure

$172.8K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-05 11:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

59% 100% +$4,879

Other

33% 0% $-4,559

Sports

7% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 345 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	+106,357	$70,382	100¢	$106.3K	+$35,869	06-05 11:24
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	+65,403	$44,525	100¢	$65.3K	+$20,813	06-05 03:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	+12,933	$5,256	10¢	$1.2K	$-4,027	05-29 15:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	105	$165.7K	97,503	97,503	+0	open	—	04-04 19:02
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	140	$161.9K	96,622	96,622	+0	open	—	04-23 18:27
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	187	$126.9K	172,238	157,638	+14,600	open	—	02-01 06:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	299	$114.0K	87,161	87,161	+0	open	—	05-02 16:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	137	$100.1K	110,241	11,318	+98,923	open	—	02-28 20:52
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	359	$96.6K	160,600	10,000	+150,600	open	—	01-10 15:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	43	$85.1K	111,813	0	+111,813	open	—	05-29 14:56
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	38	$83.7K	51,817	51,817	+0	open	—	05-01 06:21
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	370	$70.4K	106,357	0	+106,357	open	—	06-05 11:24
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	136	$70.3K	97,429	30,944	+66,485	open	—	04-21 20:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	98	$68.7K	86,797	56,452	+30,345	open	—	02-28 20:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	53	$62.7K	85,690	0	+85,690	open	—	05-25 22:45
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	101	$56.4K	68,715	0	+68,715	open	—	02-15 18:33
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	69	$56.4K	58,158	16,929	+41,229	open	—	03-22 20:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	156	$55.8K	81,150	27,877	+53,273	open	—	05-28 06:43
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	93	$51.5K	60,866	7,174	+53,692	open	—	03-22 20:43
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	84	$44.5K	65,403	0	+65,403	open	—	06-05 03:06
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	139	$44.2K	67,721	0	+67,721	open	—	02-03 16:53
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	55	$43.7K	58,521	0	+58,521	open	—	01-22 21:46
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	68	$42.3K	50,948	0	+50,948	open	—	04-21 23:13
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	197	$39.4K	98,050	0	+98,050	open	—	04-20 17:56
will tisza win at least 130 seats	60	$37.5K	52,917	13,983	+38,935	open	—	04-12 19:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	31	$36.4K	44,609	39,144	+5,464	open	—	05-23 05:46
will avatar fire and ash 3rd weekend box office be less than 40m	166	$35.9K	59,525	45,942	+13,584	open	—	01-05 19:40
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 190m and 200m	89	$34.7K	54,003	13,384	+40,619	open	—	04-06 20:52
will the united states win the second most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	118	$34.6K	58,179	0	+58,179	open	—	02-21 18:44
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 440m and 480m by january 31	203	$34.6K	0	34,678	-34,678	open	—	01-14 12:42
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes 363	78	$34.6K	28,926	17,940	+10,986	open	—	01-25 02:41
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	80	$34.6K	50,701	0	+50,701	open	—	05-30 18:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	23	$34.5K	21,723	21,723	+0	open	—	05-01 06:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 11:24:30	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	1,239	42¢	$520	0xb7987e…
06-05 08:29:45	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	70	42¢	$29	0x6f0130…
06-05 07:55:36	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0xe0bcde…
06-05 07:53:07	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	43	42¢	$18	0xb63200…
06-05 07:53:07	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x562ea1…
06-05 07:05:22	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	7,878	50¢	$3,939	0xe16ed1…
06-05 04:06:33	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	7	50¢	$3	0xfe64e3…
06-05 03:06:54	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2,964	52¢	$1,541	0x6982af…
06-05 03:01:34	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	1,042	52¢	$542	0x446711…
06-05 02:39:04	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	296	52¢	$154	0x349d87…
06-05 02:28:55	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,973	54¢	$1,065	0xd91531…
06-05 02:03:52	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	115	50¢	$57	0x394cbd…
06-05 01:57:37	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	6,000	55¢	$3,300	0x39ff87…
06-05 01:51:45	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	5,962	58¢	$3,458	0xd99751…
06-05 01:51:37	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	6,000	58¢	$3,480	0x181d02…
06-05 01:29:22	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	653	62¢	$405	0xb55127…
06-05 01:17:22	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xe4d418…
06-05 01:03:52	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0xa16527…
06-05 00:59:19	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	130	60¢	$78	0xb4d5e7…
06-05 00:57:55	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	303	60¢	$182	0x0b3571…
06-05 00:57:31	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	46	60¢	$27	0xafc5d1…
06-05 00:57:04	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	114	60¢	$69	0xd24028…
06-05 00:52:40	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	72	60¢	$43	0xda91ad…
06-05 00:52:01	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	114	60¢	$69	0x9c1437…
06-05 00:50:54	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	1,000	60¢	$600	0x4acd76…
06-05 00:46:01	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	2,000	60¢	$1,200	0xf8ac10…
06-05 00:44:51	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xba1020…
06-05 00:44:51	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x8f46e6…
06-05 00:44:51	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x48f9ab…
06-05 00:44:51	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x251ff2…
06-05 00:44:51	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,747	60¢	$1,048	0x0addad…
06-05 00:44:51	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x0aa7dd…
06-05 00:38:03	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	322	60¢	$193	0x223a9f…
06-05 00:14:04	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x5ae8b6…
06-05 00:02:12	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xa62f27…
06-04 23:50:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2,457	61¢	$1,499	0xe64c3b…
06-04 23:50:42	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	286	61¢	$174	0x2b8529…
06-04 23:50:27	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	93	61¢	$57	0x3083c2…
06-04 23:44:49	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3,110	61¢	$1,897	0xd0188b…
06-04 23:44:49	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x103672…
06-04 23:41:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x41aec8…
06-04 23:33:48	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	6,000	62¢	$3,720	0x29265e…
06-04 21:06:54	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	118	65¢	$77	0x8c11a5…
06-04 21:05:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2,222	65¢	$1,444	0x923008…
06-04 21:05:34	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x41940f…
06-04 21:05:30	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0xdc5e13…
06-04 21:05:28	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0xbaa884…
06-04 21:05:28	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x30d021…
06-04 21:05:25	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x5f3664…
06-04 21:05:04	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3,333	65¢	$2,166	0x2b6d39…
06-04 21:04:13	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	6,000	65¢	$3,900	0x630d75…
06-04 21:03:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	327	65¢	$212	0x7a7989…
06-04 17:52:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	5,829	68¢	$3,963	0x2a8675…
06-04 17:52:16	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0xc84337…
06-04 17:52:15	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	129	68¢	$88	0xe18790…
06-04 17:51:30	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0xbdbf47…
06-04 17:51:00	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	6,000	68¢	$4,080	0x219347…
06-04 14:08:09	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x3d5e70…
06-04 14:04:12	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	400	66¢	$264	0x06993f…
06-04 14:04:10	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xe65989…
06-04 14:03:52	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xe192b3…
06-04 14:03:52	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	42	66¢	$28	0x963580…
06-04 14:03:52	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	275	66¢	$182	0x0a81ef…
06-04 14:03:37	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0xecf6c3…
06-04 14:03:30	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xeafedf…
06-04 14:03:30	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	163	66¢	$108	0x194ebc…
06-04 04:13:33	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x88ac51…
06-04 03:46:16	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	39	66¢	$26	0x4f2e3d…
06-04 02:21:33	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	225	70¢	$158	0x9572eb…
06-04 02:08:09	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0xc73ee4…
06-04 01:57:36	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0x9b1642…
06-04 01:57:15	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	5,997	75¢	$4,498	0x440f08…
06-04 01:57:06	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x0dff9b…
06-04 01:56:55	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,837	70¢	$1,286	0xdce243…
06-04 01:56:55	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	500	70¢	$350	0x6a9c01…
06-04 01:56:42	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	500	70¢	$350	0xc8da1c…
06-04 01:56:28	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	500	70¢	$350	0xf2d45f…
06-04 01:56:27	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x1e02df…
06-04 01:49:07	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0x8b659f…
06-04 01:36:00	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	72¢	$720	0x73b9a1…
06-04 01:35:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	500	72¢	$360	0xb76951…
06-04 01:35:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	490	72¢	$353	0x44965a…
06-04 01:30:33	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	31	72¢	$22	0x0dc9f5…
06-04 01:30:22	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0xe83e58…
06-04 01:30:09	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0x3d802f…
06-04 01:29:28	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x79ef1a…
06-04 01:29:16	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x373d1b…
06-04 01:28:45	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	77	72¢	$55	0x3a7570…
06-04 01:28:34	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	110	72¢	$79	0x7ad06a…
06-04 01:28:06	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	334	72¢	$240	0xe5ac01…
06-04 01:27:55	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	283	72¢	$204	0x92a3bc…
06-04 01:22:19	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2,628	76¢	$1,991	0xf6a303…
06-03 23:19:24	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	49	70¢	$34	0xe5cf6c…
06-03 23:18:58	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	62	70¢	$43	0x67e472…
06-03 23:18:54	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	205	70¢	$144	0x79457a…
06-03 23:17:57	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	6,000	78¢	$4,680	0x661276…
06-03 23:17:36	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	2,299	80¢	$1,839	0x538755…
06-03 07:23:24	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	1,050	73¢	$766	0xabf70f…
06-03 04:42:24	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	6,000	80¢	$4,800	0xa9df8a…
06-03 04:40:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	5,556	78¢	$4,334	0x69c567…