Sweet-Failure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$465.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$8.32K

Hit rate

57.1%

Resolved

823

Trades

23,984

lifetime

Volume

$9.14M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$381

Open exposure

$26.2K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 23:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 146 days

Categories

Politics

53% 56% -$2,298

Other

37% 51% -$376,783

Sports

9% 54% -$48,220

Tech

0% 20% -$18,368

Pop-Culture

0% 25% -$8,452

Crypto

0% 0% -$11,089

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 518 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+19,749	$16,306	100¢	$19.7K	+$3,443	10-27 21:49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+16,000	$7,040	40¢	$6.5K	-$560	10-27 23:10
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+0	$521	60¢	$0	-$521	06-14 00:23
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+0	-$5,959	97¢	$0	+$5,959	06-11 16:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	126	$215.3K	104,960	146,673	-41,713	Yes	+$36,040	07-05 07:17
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	85	$179.1K	106,769	106,769	+0	No	+$34,271	07-05 07:17
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	213	$172.5K	248,862	84,938	+163,924	No	-$116,109	08-29 12:35
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	105	$165.7K	97,503	97,503	+0	No	+$29,068	04-04 19:02
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	140	$161.9K	96,622	96,622	+0	No	+$21,419	04-23 18:27
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	187	$126.9K	172,238	157,638	+14,600	Yes	-$43,303	02-01 06:01
Fed rate hike in 2026?	81	$121.3K	88,607	88,607	+0	Yes	-$9,264	08-28 14:03
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	85	$115.5K	125,914	105,914	+20,000	No	-$47,817	10-25 23:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	299	$114.0K	87,161	87,161	+0	No	+$9,515	05-02 16:54
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	216	$106.1K	117,720	57,568	+60,152	Yes	-$18,201	10-25 23:22
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?	134	$104.3K	117,407	16,527	+100,879	Yes	+$15,613	06-01 18:30
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	123	$101.9K	69,796	69,796	+0	Yes	+$26,689	06-05 02:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	137	$100.1K	110,241	11,318	+98,923	Yes	+$588	02-28 20:52
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	359	$96.6K	160,600	10,000	+150,600	Yes	+$70,404	01-10 15:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	44	$89.9K	117,813	0	+117,813	No	+$27,871	05-29 14:56
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	291	$88.3K	121,634	0	+121,634	Yes	+$33,372	06-21 21:07
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	103	$85.2K	114,877	0	+114,877	Yes	+$29,698	08-25 23:42
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	38	$83.7K	51,817	51,817	+0	No	+$18,267	05-01 06:21
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	8	$79.0K	113,381	75,190	+38,190	No	-$61,694	09-16 17:48
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	178	$75.2K	46,249	46,249	+0	open	—	06-11 16:19
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	375	$72.9K	110,485	0	+110,485	No	+$37,620	06-05 11:24
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	136	$70.3K	97,429	30,944	+66,485	No	+$10,816	04-21 20:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	98	$68.7K	86,797	56,452	+30,345	Yes	-$32,811	02-28 20:47
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	23	$68.6K	37,678	37,678	+0	Yes	+$6,671	05-04 19:58
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	174	$65.3K	76,394	0	+76,394	No	+$11,125	06-21 20:42
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	53	$62.7K	85,690	0	+85,690	No	+$23,003	05-25 22:45
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	81	$59.9K	71,800	48,638	+23,162	Yes	-$24,231	08-02 12:32
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	212	$59.9K	57,079	34,470	+22,609	No	-$1,481	08-05 03:31
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	61	$59.1K	73,869	55,927	+17,942	No	-$55,945	06-03 23:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	163	$57.0K	82,931	27,877	+55,054	No	-$1,420	05-28 06:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:10:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	16,000	44¢	$7,040	0x3e4152…
10-27 21:49:26	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x678b6a…
10-27 21:48:06	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	66	81¢	$53	0xdfd461…
10-27 21:46:11	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	18	81¢	$14	0xfb445d…
10-27 21:44:47	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	66	81¢	$54	0x62140a…
10-27 21:36:06	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	81¢	$1,620	0xc0b06c…
10-27 21:33:18	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	13,437	83¢	$11,153	0xf0f923…
10-27 20:58:53	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	4,062	82¢	$3,330	0xac67fe…
10-25 23:46:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x5b8d39…
10-25 23:46:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	79	80¢	$63	0x1dceb2…
10-25 23:46:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	425	80¢	$340	0xd3158a…
10-25 23:45:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	51	80¢	$40	0xaec98f…
10-25 23:45:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	1,800	80¢	$1,440	0xf395d3…
10-25 23:44:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	2,945	83¢	$2,444	0x183570…
10-25 23:43:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	614	84¢	$516	0x8ed573…
10-25 23:43:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	292	83¢	$242	0x54bc92…
10-25 23:42:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	503	84¢	$422	0x871ee5…
10-25 23:42:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	1,491	84¢	$1,253	0xde0183…
10-25 23:41:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	502	84¢	$422	0x5c80ce…
10-25 23:36:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xb040b2…
10-25 23:35:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	4,431	84¢	$3,722	0x2015ac…
10-25 23:34:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	4	84¢	$4	0xeffd85…
10-25 23:33:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	74	84¢	$62	0xa77917…
10-25 23:33:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	127	84¢	$107	0x0a1222…
10-25 23:30:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	16	84¢	$13	0x12a1f5…
10-25 23:30:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x86a2e1…
10-25 23:30:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x3ddaab…
10-25 23:30:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	898	84¢	$755	0x636654…
10-25 23:30:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	550	84¢	$462	0xe71fda…
10-25 23:30:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	105	84¢	$88	0x5000c2…
10-25 23:30:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	14	84¢	$11	0x9c6d08…
10-25 23:30:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x8c7422…
10-25 23:30:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	647	84¢	$544	0x7acf80…
10-25 23:22:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10,000	89¢	$8,930	0xbbdae7…
10-25 23:22:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	140	85¢	$119	0xca5f3e…
10-25 23:22:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	450	85¢	$382	0xad41a5…
10-25 23:22:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x627c51…
10-25 23:22:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x1d8c5a…
10-25 23:22:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x9ca4fc…
10-25 23:22:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	5,401	85¢	$4,591	0x5944ac…
10-25 23:21:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	46	85¢	$39	0xb25a5e…
10-25 23:21:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	229	85¢	$194	0xf349bc…
10-25 23:21:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x25bb6a…
10-25 23:21:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x00e694…
10-25 23:21:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x35a245…
10-25 23:20:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xbf204d…
10-25 23:20:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	190	85¢	$162	0x829ab8…
10-25 23:20:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x79c9e5…
10-25 23:20:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x5e739b…
10-25 23:20:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x4bd8bf…
10-25 23:20:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x3da8f0…
10-25 23:20:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	135	85¢	$115	0x9a5b45…
10-25 23:20:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$11	0x5be420…
10-25 23:20:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0x5f85f6…
10-25 23:19:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,751	90¢	$2,476	0x8fb7a1…
10-25 23:19:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	168	90¢	$151	0xc9587b…
10-25 23:19:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	90	90¢	$81	0xa0adfd…
10-25 23:19:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	97	90¢	$87	0x9e32e7…
10-25 23:19:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x7c1bc1…
10-25 23:19:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0x3011ef…
10-25 23:19:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,942	90¢	$1,748	0x0c50fe…
10-25 23:19:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,602	90¢	$4,142	0x9aafac…
10-25 23:19:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	1,782	81¢	$1,443	0x1f2279…
10-25 23:16:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x3636e0…
10-25 23:16:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xa6b792…
10-25 23:16:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0x17307d…
10-25 23:14:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	16,199	84¢	$13,607	0xd6ab6e…
10-25 23:12:54	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x97beb0…
10-25 23:12:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$41	0xa7f5c5…
10-25 23:12:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	148	81¢	$120	0x41bceb…
10-25 23:11:24	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	84	86¢	$72	0xac8b30…
10-25 23:11:24	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	680	86¢	$584	0x0be5f7…
10-25 23:11:24	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	68	86¢	$58	0x017c56…
10-25 23:11:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,638	86¢	$2,263	0xefa935…
10-25 23:11:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,172	86¢	$1,005	0xeaf1ee…
10-25 23:11:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	327	86¢	$280	0x71e598…
10-25 23:11:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	74	86¢	$63	0x631fc0…
10-25 23:11:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,027	86¢	$1,739	0x4e3405…
10-25 23:11:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,410	86¢	$1,210	0x4d0cbe…
10-25 23:11:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	68	86¢	$58	0x646be6…
10-25 23:11:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	68	86¢	$58	0x3ddea6…
10-25 23:11:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	54	86¢	$47	0x0fd76e…
10-25 23:11:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	122	86¢	$105	0x006dc3…
10-25 23:11:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	104	86¢	$89	0xc7b7bc…
10-25 23:11:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	33	86¢	$29	0xa67f6c…
10-25 23:11:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x84e1f0…
10-25 23:11:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	373	86¢	$320	0x6e13fa…
10-25 23:11:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	680	86¢	$584	0x439cbc…
10-25 23:11:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,219	86¢	$1,908	0xf609aa…
10-25 23:10:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7,588	13¢	$986	0xa0565e…
10-25 23:10:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	12	13¢	$2	0xccdeb6…
10-25 23:10:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	27	13¢	$3	0x41e057…
10-25 23:09:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	500	13¢	$65	0x9d3e81…
10-25 23:09:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	178	13¢	$23	0x60b11b…
10-25 23:09:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0x39feb7…
10-25 23:09:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	191	13¢	$25	0x16aa0d…
10-25 23:09:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	59	13¢	$8	0x1433b6…
10-25 23:09:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4,875	13¢	$634	0x09e17f…
10-25 23:09:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	6,641	13¢	$863	0xe47025…
10-25 23:09:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x8bd531…