Sad-Discussion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$751

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.2%

Resolved

Trades

243

lifetime

Volume

$2.98K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 09-11 12:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

93% 13% +$628

Politics

7% 50% +$128

Sports

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in June?	4	$630	629	629	+0	Yes	+$628	07-14 12:41
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?	5	$503	492	492	+0	Yes	+$480	07-14 12:41
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	8	$257	499	499	+0	No	-$38	04-26 06:47
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	5	$179	627	627	+0	No	-$73	07-02 09:06
will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741054	9	$143	420	420	+0	No	-$76	08-12 07:36
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	10	$132	293	293	+0	No	-$73	04-26 06:47
will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	7	$130	485	485	+0	No	-$60	07-27 06:39
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$114	235	235	+0	No	+$8	06-29 07:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$109	205	205	+0	No	-$2	07-02 09:32
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	5	$80	314	314	+0	No	-$40	05-30 07:50
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$63	59	59	+0	Yes	+$54	04-08 19:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	3	$51	118	118	+0	No	+$11	04-14 07:37
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	1	$47	98	0	+98	Yes	+$51	07-02 09:36
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$47	48	48	+0	Yes	+$13	06-15 14:25
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	8	$41	923	923	+0	No	-$30	07-27 06:39
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	4	$40	174	174	+0	No	-$30	05-26 06:50
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$36	143	143	+0	No	-$4	05-30 07:50
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	5	$35	167	167	+0	No	+$5	04-13 14:22
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	5	$34	169	0	+169	No	-$34	07-14 12:16
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741056	5	$32	368	368	+0	No	-$15	08-12 07:36
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	6	$25	199	0	+199	No	-$25	09-11 11:09
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in June?	2	$25	262	0	+262	No	-$25	07-14 12:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	1	$24	126	0	+126	Yes	+$102	03-30 11:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	3	$22	197	0	+197	No	-$22	04-27 04:33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	1	$17	97	0	+97	No	-$17	05-30 07:51
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	2	$17	200	200	+0	No	-$3	07-27 06:39
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?	7	$16	120	0	+120	No	-$16	09-09 09:46
will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741057	4	$14	324	324	+0	No	-$10	08-12 07:36
Will FC St. Gallen win on 2026-07-23?	1	$12	100	0	+100	Yes	+$88	07-23 14:51
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?	6	$11	450	0	+450	No	-$11	08-12 08:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-11 12:05:09	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0xa52996…
09-11 12:03:36	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0x82a867…
09-11 12:03:07	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0xf27f33…
09-11 12:02:55	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x3293b3…
09-11 11:49:00	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x4023ca…
09-11 11:48:55	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x7ca605…
09-11 11:33:36	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	73	2¢	$2	0x2c4384…
09-11 11:26:04	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xb427eb…
09-11 11:26:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x493c9d…
09-11 11:17:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xcfe534…
09-11 11:16:54	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xa89d1e…
09-11 11:16:13	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	128	0¢	$0	0x28ce07…
09-11 11:15:30	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0x923745…
09-11 11:09:36	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	59	11¢	$7	0x9bb10c…
09-11 11:09:25	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x83a9b5…
09-11 11:09:24	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x308074…
09-11 11:09:13	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xe15d54…
09-11 11:09:10	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	56	12¢	$7	0xaf73a1…
09-11 11:08:09	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xfe98f7…
09-09 12:53:06	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x7e53ef…
09-09 12:53:06	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x72e59a…
09-09 12:53:06	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x1b21fe…
09-09 12:53:04	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xe33f25…
09-09 12:53:04	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x9092dc…
09-09 12:53:04	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x7d8dbd…
09-09 12:53:04	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x764ddb…
09-09 12:53:04	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x26252c…
09-09 12:53:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xe418a6…
09-09 12:53:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xcacf64…
09-09 12:53:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xc8d991…
09-09 12:53:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xab7a9d…
09-09 12:53:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x981376…
09-09 12:53:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x910d2a…
09-09 12:53:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x8d49ec…
09-09 12:53:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x69e914…
09-09 12:53:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x4fc7a2…
09-09 12:53:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x4285f6…
09-09 12:53:01	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xdb289f…
09-09 12:53:01	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x66f4bd…
09-09 12:53:01	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x252563…
09-09 12:50:49	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x62bffb…
09-09 12:50:49	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x38c0b0…
09-09 12:50:49	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x09d738…
09-09 12:17:30	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x5fac94…
09-09 12:17:30	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x21b48a…
09-09 12:17:28	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x5ae155…
09-09 12:17:28	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x595d2d…
09-09 12:17:21	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xc785cd…
09-09 12:17:21	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x4f345f…
09-09 12:17:21	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x249518…
09-09 12:17:21	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x17375d…
09-09 12:07:12	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0xb5f0f6…
09-09 12:07:12	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x4180c0…
09-09 12:03:58	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0xcd7bdc…
09-09 12:01:10	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	39	14¢	$5	0x8359aa…
09-09 11:59:03	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x933d69…
09-09 11:57:37	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x572074…
09-09 11:55:46	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	137	0¢	$0	0x00d886…
09-09 11:52:22	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0xb8da6e…
09-09 11:50:51	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xb17537…
09-09 11:49:42	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	126	0¢	$0	0xf86373…
09-09 11:47:48	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x0d5350…
09-09 11:20:58	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xe14aa6…
09-09 11:07:27	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	34	13¢	$4	0xc3d98e…
09-09 09:46:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xf957c3…
09-09 09:46:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0xe59bff…
09-09 09:46:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xd4383f…
09-09 09:46:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xc33521…
09-09 09:46:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xb5cca1…
09-09 09:46:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xa80058…
09-09 09:46:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x85bd47…
09-09 09:46:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x6e9b58…
09-09 09:46:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x09f904…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xa1a5e6…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x9982bb…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0x7dab27…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x7d4778…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x767a50…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x74aa23…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x67d418…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x576469…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0x4bce2f…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x34a2a8…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x1a9470…
09-09 09:43:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x05af70…
09-09 09:42:18	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0xce692a…
09-09 09:41:55	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xa459ae…
09-09 09:41:55	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x79c682…
09-09 09:35:12	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xa33641…
08-12 12:30:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0xf93929…
08-12 09:17:31	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?	Yes	BUY	47	0¢	$0	0x692e35…
08-12 09:01:19	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x4935f0…
08-12 09:01:19	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?	Yes	BUY	24	2¢	$0	0x1f0b56…
08-12 09:01:03	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xf5794b…
08-12 09:01:03	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xd62867…
08-12 08:57:49	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x6dfaa2…
08-12 08:57:48	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x3f8025…
08-12 08:53:39	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x80e6d0…
08-12 08:53:39	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x7206a8…
08-12 08:53:27	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xc79679…