Insubstantial-Bottle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.66K

Unrealized P&L

-$126

Hit rate

26.2%

Resolved

221

Trades

782

lifetime

Volume

$25.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 10-06 06:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 95 days

Categories

Other

45% 20% -$1,521

Politics

41% 17% -$103

Tech

7% 17% -$6

Sports

4% 36% -$13

Crypto

4% 38% -$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 71 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+1,089	$120	1¢	$7	-$113	07-17 19:52
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	Yes	+54	$15	3¢	$2	-$13	05-03 14:13
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	+$0	05-18 15:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	11	$1.2K	600	600	+0	Yes	+$3	04-06 04:36
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$1.1K	566	566	+0	Yes	-$7	04-30 04:00
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$1.0K	650	650	+0	No	-$85	04-09 04:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$924	470	470	+0	Yes	$0	04-09 09:13
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	3	$910	500	500	+0	No	+$0	04-09 05:31
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	6	$908	470	470	+0	No	-$1	04-28 07:45
will trump dance during tpusa event on april 17	4	$896	650	650	+0	Yes	-$40	04-17 14:28
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$858	460	460	+0	open	—	04-30 08:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	5	$799	1,511	1,511	+0	No	-$2	06-04 07:25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$788	400	400	+0	No	+$1	04-30 05:29
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	2	$785	400	400	+0	No	-$5	04-30 06:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	3	$765	500	500	+0	No	-$5	04-29 16:30
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$700	400	400	+0	Yes	+$4	04-06 05:59
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$620	500	500	+0	No	$0	04-28 15:54
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	6	$492	750	750	+0	Gentle Mates	-$2	05-11 05:59
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$476	1,221	1,221	+0	No	+$12	07-14 20:52
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	1	$416	680	0	+680	No	-$416	06-25 14:17
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$401	207	207	+0	Yes	$0	04-06 07:43
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	2	$387	200	200	+0	No	+$0	04-02 08:40
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	1	$378	700	0	+700	No	-$378	06-18 14:15
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	5	$360	200	200	+0	No	+$0	04-02 13:25
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$357	257	257	+0	Yes	-$23	07-15 21:19
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$356	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-07 14:31
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	1	$319	590	0	+590	Yes	+$271	07-04 07:13
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	1	$307	640	0	+640	No	-$307	06-27 07:46
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	1	$293	480	0	+480	Yes	+$187	06-21 05:25
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	1	$281	610	0	+610	No	-$281	07-01 05:48
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	1	$245	570	0	+570	No	-$245	07-07 16:29
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$233	118	118	+0	No	+$0	03-30 02:01
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	12	$225	229	229	+0	Yes	-$1	07-21 13:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 06:36:45	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on October 6?	No	SELL	25	6¢	$2	0xcd100d…
10-06 06:36:34	Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a warden?	Yes	SELL	21	22¢	$5	0x1ed505…
10-06 06:32:06	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on October 6?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc31b52…
10-06 06:31:51	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on October 6?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x3c902d…
10-06 06:31:39	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x4d5db9…
10-06 06:31:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on October 6?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x4bf9f3…
10-06 06:27:49	Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a warden?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x81b006…
10-06 06:27:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x811bcc…
10-06 06:23:04	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x2e5136…
10-06 06:18:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0xcf35cd…
10-06 06:15:42	Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a polar bear?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xf65c3a…
10-06 06:14:03	Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a polar bear?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x8ec4ba…
10-06 06:06:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0xbbec5c…
10-06 06:02:01	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?	Yes	SELL	51	11¢	$6	0x263697…
10-06 06:01:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 6?	No	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0xb11f29…
10-06 06:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xb70e4c…
10-06 06:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xce2fa4…
10-06 05:58:25	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0xc652db…
10-06 05:57:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x8c9077…
10-06 05:57:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x82b7f2…
10-06 05:57:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x607bc1…
10-06 05:57:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x280c37…
10-06 05:57:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x06f643…
10-06 05:57:28	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 6?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x0972b8…
10-06 05:56:31	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xecb975…
10-06 05:55:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xafb16d…
10-06 05:55:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa1ac18…
10-06 05:55:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 6?	No	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x58e8dd…
10-06 05:55:43	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x166256…
10-06 05:55:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0xe44663…
10-06 05:54:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xa893c2…
10-06 05:49:16	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0xddfd57…
10-06 05:41:40	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 6?	No	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x0ff34c…
10-06 05:41:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xa8997d…
10-06 05:38:25	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x5a4f78…
10-06 05:38:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	SELL	29	10¢	$3	0xa1c34e…
10-06 05:37:55	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x9bd459…
10-06 05:34:37	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 6?	No	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x4f9208…
10-06 05:31:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0x2b1c65…
10-06 05:31:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	No	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0xf1da3d…
10-06 05:30:39	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x04e2b1…
10-06 05:28:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	No	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0xca1e42…
10-06 05:28:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x117ee0…
10-06 05:28:31	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x322675…
10-06 05:27:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xc20547…
10-06 05:26:37	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x661820…
10-06 05:25:31	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x1d945f…
10-06 05:24:28	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xd5bc52…
10-06 05:10:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xca4c07…
10-06 05:07:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	15	3¢	$0	0xc4c7ed…
10-06 05:07:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	No	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xde1b35…
10-06 05:07:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x2ed85d…
10-06 05:07:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x7f1ea0…
10-06 05:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xb88959…
10-06 05:05:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xc893e6…
10-06 05:05:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	No	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x1a50c6…
10-06 05:02:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb855be…
10-06 05:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0x7424ca…
10-06 05:00:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x0788f1…
10-06 05:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7fd20d…
10-06 05:00:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xc73ce1…
10-06 05:00:16	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xb517f9…
10-06 04:59:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x2bb4cf…
10-06 04:57:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x2cbaa2…
10-06 04:52:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x58bbde…
10-06 04:50:58	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?	Yes	BUY	51	12¢	$6	0x214512…
10-05 08:31:44	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xcc7fb8…
10-05 08:30:53	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x2513fa…
10-05 08:29:38	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0x89d2c2…
10-05 08:29:37	Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xd31982…
10-05 08:29:37	Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x85d850…
10-05 08:25:59	Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xca8ca6…
10-05 08:24:22	Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?	No	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xda8e3f…
10-05 08:23:47	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0xfc8a40…
10-05 08:23:43	Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?	No	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0x1d4562…
10-05 08:16:37	Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xdf17f9…
10-05 08:14:17	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xeca446…
10-05 08:13:56	Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x197538…
10-05 08:11:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xb75ea4…
10-05 08:10:53	Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe10f56…
10-05 07:59:41	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	SELL	24	9¢	$2	0x7c9ae6…
10-05 07:59:17	Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xb1ff58…
10-05 07:59:01	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x562ca7…
10-05 07:53:11	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x47a888…
10-05 07:43:43	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 5?	No	SELL	59	1¢	$1	0xe23e85…
10-05 07:43:32	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	41	1¢	$0	0x99722c…
10-05 07:42:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	61	2¢	$1	0x562b86…
10-05 07:42:43	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 5?	No	SELL	61	2¢	$1	0xaff5df…
10-05 07:42:02	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xc3aa9c…
10-05 07:41:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 5?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x7abd14…
10-05 07:41:01	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x9d7501…
10-05 07:39:58	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 5?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x57bc77…
10-05 07:39:55	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x140402…
10-05 07:39:53	Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x7b8993…
10-05 07:36:26	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x8236af…
10-05 07:35:14	Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x0617fe…
10-05 07:34:34	Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?	No	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x4ff427…
10-05 07:34:34	Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?	No	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0x0a3f03…
10-05 07:31:47	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x011e38…
10-05 07:31:41	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 5?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x1030ad…