Insubstantial-Bottle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

243

lifetime

Volume

$14.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$58

Open exposure

$29

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 07-24 04:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

53% — —

Other

35% 0% $-2

Tech

9% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	+206	$15	6¢	$12	$-3	05-30 13:31
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-550	$-9	2¢	$-11	$-2	06-09 15:13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	-222	$-11	3¢	$-6	+$5	06-09 15:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	11	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	04-06 04:36
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$1.0K	650	650	+0	open	—	04-09 04:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$924	470	470	+0	open	—	04-09 09:13
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	3	$910	500	500	+0	open	—	04-09 05:31
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	6	$908	470	470	+0	open	—	04-28 07:45
will trump dance during tpusa event on april 17	4	$896	650	650	+0	open	—	04-17 14:28
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$800	430	430	+0	open	—	04-27 15:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$788	400	400	+0	open	—	04-30 05:29
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	2	$785	400	400	+0	open	—	04-30 06:50
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$700	400	400	+0	open	—	04-06 05:59
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	6	$492	750	750	+0	Gentle Mates	$-2	05-11 05:59
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$401	207	207	+0	open	—	04-06 07:43
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	2	$387	200	200	+0	open	—	04-02 08:40
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	5	$360	200	200	+0	open	—	04-02 13:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$233	118	118	+0	open	—	03-30 02:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$214	413	413	+0	open	—	05-18 15:50
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-02 12:13
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$196	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 08:30
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	6	$195	238	238	+0	open	—	05-26 11:54
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	5	$190	100	100	+0	open	—	05-18 19:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	05-07 12:33
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	05-21 11:49
trump out as president by march 31	2	$103	52	52	+0	open	—	03-24 15:16
will trump visit china by march 31	4	$102	52	52	+0	open	—	03-30 06:02
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?	3	$101	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 09:34
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?	2	$88	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 09:32
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May?	2	$85	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 09:29
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	2	$70	35	35	+0	open	—	03-27 14:29
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	+$0	03-25 10:13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	2	$66	33	33	+0	open	—	03-30 06:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 04:54:57	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be at least 3pt5t yuan 20260723150651778	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x3fec3c…
07-24 04:54:46	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be at least 3pt5t yuan 20260723150651778	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xa8dfcd…
07-23 13:18:37	will jon bernthal or tom holland say spider or spider man 5 times on hot ones 20260721145535500	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x33c6fc…
07-23 13:15:55	will jon bernthal or tom holland say spider or spider man 5 times on hot ones 20260721145535500	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x9e3bd3…
07-23 12:59:36	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be above 1pt5t cny 20260722211138919	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x7083c3…
07-23 12:57:25	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be above 1pt5t cny 20260722211138919	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x0a8814…
07-23 12:37:40	will trump say biden 5 times during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255808	Yes	SELL	13	21¢	$3	0xa0ee3b…
07-23 12:35:01	will trump say biden 5 times during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255808	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xd99d6a…
07-23 12:32:48	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be above 1pt5t cny 20260722211138919	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xa46f09…
07-23 12:32:28	powl quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 03 2026 1pt47	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x83fbb4…
07-23 12:31:54	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be above 1pt5t cny 20260722211138919	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x429336…
07-23 12:30:48	powl quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 03 2026 1pt47	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x6ba49e…
07-23 12:24:18	will trump say biden 5 times during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255808	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x79ec09…
07-23 11:44:16	will trump say biden 5 times during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255808	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x94fee9…
07-23 11:42:28	will trump say biden 5 times during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255808	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xe4ffd7…
07-22 07:09:51	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 30 2026 20260721160333086	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xd19e48…
07-22 07:05:24	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xee2cf3…
07-22 07:05:06	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x429438…
07-22 07:05:01	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 6 2026 20260721160433827	No	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x8e4542…
07-22 07:04:39	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 6 2026 20260721160433827	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xc14541…
07-22 07:03:40	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 30 2026 20260721160333086	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xf69a3a…
07-22 06:55:04	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x69b342…
07-22 06:53:09	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xf0ef57…
07-22 06:43:49	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xadbaae…
07-22 06:43:13	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x12114c…
07-22 06:41:19	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x370800…
07-22 06:40:58	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xd94a0b…
07-22 06:40:43	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x33bb75…
07-22 06:19:15	will trump say friend of mine during remarks in georgia 20260720190340709	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x3bd32d…
07-22 06:19:07	will trump say friend of mine during remarks in georgia 20260720190340709	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xa9f95b…
07-21 12:49:27	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	8	32¢	$2	0x621ab5…
06-28 09:41:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x6fbbbc…
06-28 09:38:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x3bea52…
06-28 09:36:40	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in july 20260626154217427	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x65f49e…
06-28 09:26:49	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in july 20260626154217427	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xf87e3b…
06-09 15:13:37	Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	550	2¢	$9	0x735db1…
06-09 15:13:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	222	5¢	$11	0x80213f…
06-04 08:55:15	trump approval up or down this week 20260602011932570	Down	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x3c09b1…
06-04 08:53:45	trump approval up or down this week 20260602011932570	Down	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x0857fc…
06-04 08:16:21	will spy dip to 730 in june 2026	No	SELL	15	48¢	$7	0x50dcb9…
06-04 08:14:07	will spy dip to 730 in june 2026	No	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0x4504e3…
06-04 08:01:25	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	SELL	30	65¢	$20	0xafffc2…
06-04 08:00:30	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x20db15…
06-04 07:41:43	trump approval up or down this week 20260602011932570	Up	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x63bb3a…
06-04 07:41:12	trump approval up or down this week 20260602011932570	Up	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0x150155…
05-30 13:31:29	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	206	7¢	$15	0x83aa56…
05-30 13:19:02	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xff4ad6…
05-30 13:18:51	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	31¢	$3	0xd8f0b4…
05-30 13:18:21	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0xca97b0…
05-30 13:17:31	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xa99203…
05-30 12:50:39	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June?	Yes	SELL	1	81¢	$0	0x53428d…
05-30 12:50:23	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x47c8e1…
05-30 12:50:09	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xb8fafb…
05-30 12:48:52	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x43dcc2…
05-30 12:48:00	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$0	0x03e546…
05-30 12:46:36	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	0	23¢	$0	0x438931…
05-30 12:46:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0xf288f9…
05-30 12:46:30	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0xdb6a82…
05-30 12:46:30	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x6a289f…
05-30 12:46:30	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x23d292…
05-30 12:46:30	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x0394ca…
05-30 12:46:29	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0xd53d4d…
05-30 12:46:29	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x804ea0…
05-30 12:46:29	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x4e84b5…
05-30 12:46:29	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x4b5ff1…
05-30 12:46:29	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x1dee62…
05-30 12:46:27	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0xcf2c0a…
05-30 12:46:27	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x966a0e…
05-30 12:46:27	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x859939…
05-30 12:46:27	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	0	23¢	$0	0x682f8a…
05-30 12:46:27	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x58b41e…
05-30 12:46:27	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x451082…
05-30 12:34:33	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?	No	SELL	14	13¢	$2	0xcf6fd0…
05-30 12:32:32	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x25247a…
05-26 11:54:03	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	38	61¢	$23	0x71cbdb…
05-26 11:51:48	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	38	61¢	$23	0x586f77…
05-21 11:49:54	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x7e247d…
05-19 09:45:11	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0xf91aea…
05-19 09:43:05	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x4f2401…
05-19 09:34:36	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?	No	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x2772ba…
05-19 09:34:20	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	No	SELL	49	59¢	$29	0x4eb69f…
05-19 09:33:10	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?	No	BUY	38	51¢	$19	0x20207d…
05-19 09:33:01	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?	No	BUY	62	51¢	$32	0xf7567e…
05-19 09:32:58	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0xeb422e…
05-19 09:32:25	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x44831f…
05-19 09:30:26	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	No	BUY	49	59¢	$29	0x7f5ed5…
05-19 09:29:40	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0xc286f7…
05-19 09:27:43	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x0a1fa6…
05-19 09:05:29	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0xd8967e…
05-19 08:46:41	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0xa677b4…
05-19 08:30:01	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x4adb13…
05-18 19:16:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x3af1de…
05-18 19:08:12	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	79	95¢	$75	0x066167…
05-18 17:15:56	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x851868…
05-18 17:14:03	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xbdf12d…
05-18 17:05:58	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x01b515…
05-18 16:39:11	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xff8b82…
05-18 15:52:07	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x502342…
05-18 15:50:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xbd91f6…
05-18 15:34:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x8c0b4d…