Prize-Bunkhouse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

76.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$596

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

$123

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 06-04 10:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

39% 100% +$2

Politics

31% — —

Sports

30% 0% $-20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+72	$68	96¢	$69	+$1	06-04 10:19
Clavicular sentenced to prison?	No	-29	$-25	85¢	$-25	$-0	06-04 10:17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-19	$-16	84¢	$-16	$-0	06-04 10:17
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+65	$20	22¢	$14	$-6	06-04 10:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	2	$111	57	57	+0	open	—	04-06 12:53
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	1	$81	0	82	-82	open	—	06-04 10:17
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	1	$68	72	0	+72	open	—	06-04 10:19
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$50	52	0	+52	Yes	+$2	04-06 12:55
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$43	56	56	+0	open	—	03-08 14:13
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	2	$40	23	23	+0	Yes	+$0	03-08 14:12
will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	1	$35	38	0	+38	open	—	03-08 14:16
russia coup attempt in 2026	1	$30	33	0	+33	open	—	06-04 10:21
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	02-02 10:13
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	1	$27	0	47	-47	Yes	$-20	01-21 10:03
Clavicular sentenced to prison?	1	$25	0	29	-29	open	—	06-04 10:17
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	1	$20	65	0	+65	open	—	06-04 10:19
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	1	$20	27	0	+27	open	—	03-08 14:13
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$16	0	19	-19	open	—	06-04 10:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 10:21:30	russia coup attempt in 2026	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x90b218…
06-04 10:19:52	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	72	95¢	$68	0xa4b2a4…
06-04 10:19:04	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x9c2a02…
06-04 10:17:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	19	83¢	$16	0x7ed258…
06-04 10:17:45	Clavicular sentenced to prison?	No	SELL	29	84¢	$25	0xf734cb…
06-04 10:17:37	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	82	99¢	$81	0x0e2fc0…
04-06 12:55:01	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x8cfcd1…
04-06 12:53:19	Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	SELL	57	98¢	$56	0x85bd53…
03-08 14:16:59	will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0x1fba93…
03-08 14:14:31	Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	57	96¢	$55	0x116098…
03-08 14:13:25	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xd4572b…
03-08 14:13:03	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	56	35¢	$20	0xce6353…
03-08 14:12:57	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0x706752…
02-02 10:14:18	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	56	41¢	$23	0x292994…
02-02 10:14:00	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0xddc618…
02-02 10:13:16	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x6db807…
01-21 10:07:18	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$16	0x3a9239…
01-21 10:03:42	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	SELL	47	58¢	$27	0x51da69…