Blaring-Bust — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$61

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

62.0%

Resolved

13,084

Trades

45,631

lifetime

Volume

$331.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$83

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 10-30 09:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 59% -$57

Other

4% 66% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 4600 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 30?	No	+23	$20	100¢	$23	+$3	10-25 11:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30?	Yes	+22	$20	92¢	$21	+$1	10-26 01:44
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 30?	Yes	+24	$20	86¢	$20	+$0	10-25 23:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	+20	$20	97¢	$20	$0	10-30 10:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 23:40 UTC	25	$536	321	264	+57	Up	+$33	09-16 23:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 23:00 UTC	26	$487	289	283	+6	Up	+$48	09-16 23:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 12:25 UTC	30	$445	361	176	+186	Down	+$50	09-16 12:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 19:35 UTC	38	$429	412	275	+137	Up	+$76	09-16 19:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 23:50 UTC	22	$393	229	227	+2	Up	+$23	09-16 23:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 01:15 UTC	39	$391	435	260	+175	Up	+$236	09-17 01:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 16:05 UTC	33	$360	317	238	+79	Down	+$79	09-16 16:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 20:30 UTC	43	$344	458	211	+247	Up	+$254	09-16 20:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 17:45 UTC	37	$331	472	109	+363	Down	+$21	09-16 17:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 19:55 UTC	47	$322	433	174	+259	Up	+$16	09-16 19:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 12:15 UTC	26	$320	189	177	+12	Up	+$24	09-17 12:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 21:35 UTC	35	$311	311	195	+116	Down	+$47	09-16 21:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 20:15 UTC	36	$310	335	218	+117	Up	+$82	09-16 20:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 21:05 UTC	43	$308	693	205	+488	Down	+$201	09-16 21:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 16:25 UTC	28	$299	274	176	+98	Down	+$60	09-16 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	44	$291	254	207	+47	Up	+$110	09-16 00:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	32	$290	608	0	+608	Up	+$18	05-22 13:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 19:30 UTC	24	$276	238	175	+62	Up	+$35	09-16 19:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	27	$273	529	0	+529	Down	+$12	05-22 13:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 23:15 UTC	15	$268	174	149	+25	Up	+$27	09-16 23:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 11:05 UTC	27	$268	188	174	+14	Down	+$42	09-16 11:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 12:15 UTC	27	$265	245	178	+66	Down	+$85	09-16 12:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 12:55 UTC	23	$259	300	149	+150	Down	+$76	09-16 12:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 23:45 UTC	34	$252	287	162	+125	Down	+$41	09-16 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	30	$251	463	0	+463	Up	+$14	05-23 17:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 12:20 UTC	32	$244	291	126	+164	Down	-$10	09-16 12:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 20:05 UTC	35	$243	331	93	+238	Down	-$68	09-16 20:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	25	$237	491	0	+491	Down	+$15	05-24 01:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	13	$233	656	0	+656	Up	+$245	05-24 11:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 21:45 UTC	28	$233	241	142	+99	Up	+$8	09-16 21:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 11:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x06f205…
10-30 11:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x906328…
10-30 11:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	58¢	$4	0x4230dd…
10-30 10:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0xc2cb86…
10-30 10:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x0510a4…
10-30 10:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xea2df4…
10-30 10:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x46b1ba…
10-30 10:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x63c777…
10-30 10:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x5e6d55…
10-30 10:17:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x17a456…
10-30 10:16:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x614649…
10-30 10:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x4f399a…
10-30 10:05:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x3526ec…
10-30 10:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xdcde09…
10-30 09:54:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0xd93ead…
10-30 09:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x7cbdb7…
10-30 09:52:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xf98438…
10-30 09:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xa30724…
10-30 09:37:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x8d2cde…
10-30 09:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x044633…
10-30 09:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	60¢	$3	0x4896bc…
10-30 09:09:13	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 31?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x19fbc4…
10-30 09:09:12	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 30?	No	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xf5ff6a…
10-30 09:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x8b02e2…
10-30 09:00:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-30 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xef350d…
10-30 08:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x75ef65…
10-30 08:37:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xcb710c…
10-30 08:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x125f1d…
10-30 08:32:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	64¢	$5	0xe417f3…
10-30 08:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x429f0a…
10-30 08:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x5278d8…
10-30 08:16:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x44bcaf…
10-30 08:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xb1c982…
10-30 08:09:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 30?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x9585f8…
10-30 08:09:21	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on October 30?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x205248…
10-30 07:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xcba884…
10-30 07:42:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x0649e9…
10-30 07:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x72ddec…
10-30 07:33:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x93707a…
10-30 07:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x4fb9d0…
10-30 07:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xb95998…
10-30 07:15:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	62¢	$3	0xf0dfd7…
10-30 07:09:21	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on October 31?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xc7f835…
10-30 07:09:19	Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 31?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x51040a…
10-30 07:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x330b96…
10-30 06:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x22629c…
10-30 06:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x3ba9fe…
10-30 06:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x24ad59…
10-30 06:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x372703…
10-30 05:52:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe1c358…
10-30 05:39:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 30?	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xdd0982…
10-30 05:39:34	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 31?	No	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x10c9a0…
10-30 05:39:33	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on October 31?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x6295fd…
10-30 05:30:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x1c1355…
10-30 05:11:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4ee56f…
10-30 04:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x34e225…
10-30 03:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x3e2f20…
10-30 02:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf9984e…
10-30 02:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0x0ae577…
10-30 02:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x577fea…
10-30 02:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	23	52¢	$12	0x9455e4…
10-30 01:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x6e1af3…
10-30 01:56:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc18736…
10-30 01:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x30ddb2…
10-30 01:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	29	80¢	$24	0xdccdc3…
10-30 01:55:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	78¢	$24	0xbc8b00…
10-30 01:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x712e99…
10-30 01:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	32	73¢	$23	0x705368…
10-30 01:55:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	34	67¢	$23	0xfc314e…
10-30 01:55:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	34	67¢	$23	0xd86672…
10-30 01:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$2	0x67db99…
10-30 01:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	19	38¢	$7	0xfc71bc…
10-30 01:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	31	38¢	$12	0x3070a9…
10-30 01:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xea1170…
10-30 01:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0x5930bf…
10-30 01:45:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xfd7856…
10-30 01:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x0bd69e…
10-30 01:43:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x2079cc…
10-30 01:42:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x1526c6…
10-30 01:40:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	32	74¢	$24	0x4f5e9b…
10-30 01:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	74¢	$23	0x79cadd…
10-30 01:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	32	73¢	$23	0x1ad9b5…
10-30 01:40:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	35	68¢	$23	0x78f257…
10-30 01:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	36	64¢	$23	0xaa168c…
10-30 01:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0xe8d5af…
10-30 01:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x57ee9f…
10-30 01:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	22	53¢	$12	0x1ece86…
10-30 01:33:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	27	44¢	$12	0x626e7f…
10-30 01:32:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x245d5d…
10-30 01:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	17	28¢	$5	0x9d01e5…
10-30 01:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x93e628…
10-30 01:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	31	76¢	$24	0x009df9…
10-30 01:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	34	68¢	$23	0x6b5623…
10-30 01:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	38	62¢	$23	0xe611af…
10-30 01:25:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	41	57¢	$23	0x01a7ae…
10-30 01:21:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0xab50a9…
10-30 01:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	30	79¢	$23	0x935a49…
10-30 01:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	34	69¢	$24	0xb3e8d2…
10-30 01:20:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	38	61¢	$23	0xf81755…
10-30 01:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0xbf683a…