Humble-Formamide — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

98.5%

Resolved

158

Trades

170

lifetime

Volume

$3.47K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$29

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-09 08:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Crypto

51% 99% +$6

Other

39% 98% -$13

Politics

9% 100% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No		+29	$29	100¢	$29	+$0	11-09 08:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10?	2	$54	54	0	+54	No	+$0	05-10 03:58
bitcoin above 82k on april 22	1	$42	42	0	+42	No	+$0	04-21 08:16
highest temperature in mexico city on april 15 2026 17c	2	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	04-14 20:55
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 8?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	11-08 13:19
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	04-20 10:18
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	2	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	05-12 06:26
Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	1	$38	39	0	+39	Yes	+$0	09-21 22:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1?	1	$38	38	0	+38	Yes	+$0	05-01 10:58
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	10-21 13:50
bitcoin above 58k on july 3 2026	2	$37	37	0	+37	Yes	+$0	07-03 03:46
Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	2	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	05-18 05:53
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	2	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	05-04 22:52
will wti reach 100 by august 3 2026	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	08-06 02:54
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	06-30 09:54
bitcoin above 82k on april 21	2	$36	18	18	+0	No	$0	04-20 10:21
will ethereum dip to 2000 in august 2026	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-30 11:46
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	05-05 03:49
will ethereum dip to 1800 in january 2026 971	2	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	01-26 11:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 28?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-26 18:26
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	11-04 06:15
Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-28 06:10
bitcoin above 58k on july 6 2026	1	$29	29	0	+29	Yes	+$0	07-05 12:01
will russell henley win the 2026 masters tournament	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	04-12 17:35
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	11-09 08:08
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	07-14 06:29
bitcoin above 68k on august 14 2026	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	08-13 00:10
ethereum above 2500 on april 17	2	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	04-17 03:50
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	04-27 04:08
bitcoin above 70k on april 22	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	04-21 16:30
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3?	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	05-03 10:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 08:08:55	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x570b01…
11-08 13:19:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 8?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x9a121b…
11-07 22:14:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x72d3df…
11-04 06:15:40	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xdac3aa…
10-31 07:34:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xcea578…
10-30 08:45:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xb587ac…
10-26 16:01:02	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x0bf94c…
10-23 09:03:33	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x72bbc1…
10-21 13:50:56	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x713331…
10-18 19:41:35	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xc31a4b…
10-16 11:06:46	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4fa5af…
10-11 16:39:42	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x25c98d…
10-09 00:05:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 8?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x5d66c4…
10-08 22:51:41	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x886d08…
10-04 12:26:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x21e441…
10-02 20:28:48	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x0d61dc…
09-30 10:35:56	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x8d43af…
09-29 09:38:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x754b17…
09-26 14:36:09	Will Ethereum reach $3,100 September 21-27?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1f086f…
09-24 12:24:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on September 24?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5665b9…
09-21 22:11:52	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$38	0xdfd7af…
09-19 05:41:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 14-20?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa97ee5…
09-18 07:33:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on September 18?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x496daa…
09-14 05:53:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc59c7e…
09-13 03:26:15	Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1ef92c…
09-07 06:52:42	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xe504f2…
08-30 14:09:40	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xc7b0e7…
08-30 11:46:48	will ethereum dip to 2000 in august 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x995924…
08-24 18:55:18	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x73fb0c…
08-24 16:47:51	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xcb90b7…
08-19 08:38:49	bitcoin above 62k on august 19 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x85909d…
08-18 03:36:34	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xa94e24…
08-15 22:51:34	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 10 16 2026	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x2a1002…
08-13 07:27:27	ethereum above 2000 on august 13 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x61781c…
08-13 00:10:39	bitcoin above 68k on august 14 2026	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xf73d2e…
08-09 10:54:16	will ethereum reach 2100 august 3 9 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb0374e…
08-09 00:53:57	bitcoin above 60k on august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x348abe…
08-06 02:54:20	will wti reach 100 by august 3 2026	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x3754c2…
07-29 20:14:54	will ethereum dip to 1500 in july 2026 446 668	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf7e39b…
07-29 17:01:48	will solana reach 90 in july 2026	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xec8b5d…
07-28 13:57:55	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x8d1eec…
07-23 23:09:13	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 23	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x7f10cc…
07-22 02:32:52	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xfc8774…
07-21 11:05:10	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xb34657…
07-16 10:28:29	bitcoin above 68k on july 17 2026	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x2d6288…
07-16 05:04:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x2c95e5…
07-14 06:29:32	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x2290da…
07-12 16:36:59	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb5e2e2…
07-12 11:58:10	bitcoin above 60k on july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x63dee1…
07-12 01:28:20	bitcoin above 60k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x025e05…
07-11 19:32:19	ethereum above 1700 on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x974ff8…
07-10 18:09:01	bitcoin above 68k on july 11 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x29f8f4…
07-08 02:07:40	Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x3edcfd…
07-05 12:01:26	bitcoin above 58k on july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x3465fa…
07-04 02:10:37	will ethereum dip to 1400 june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x6350c5…
07-04 00:39:56	bitcoin above 66k on july 4 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc3fed2…
07-03 06:53:52	will ethereum dip to 1300 june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x9ba26f…
07-03 03:46:53	bitcoin above 58k on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x298b59…
07-02 13:42:52	bitcoin above 58k on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x934766…
06-30 15:26:47	will openais valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x08ed2e…
06-30 09:54:26	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x3e2ce6…
06-25 10:27:10	bitcoin above 66k on june 26 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb94244…
06-23 01:25:47	ethereum above 1600 on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x11d860…
06-21 11:22:52	bitcoin above 62k on june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x55d147…
06-02 11:42:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xf37aab…
06-01 21:23:47	Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x966df9…
06-01 17:10:51	Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x3d69f0…
05-31 14:17:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x2ee396…
05-30 18:51:58	Will Thunder Parley advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x2a1904…
05-30 03:16:14	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x380c85…
05-29 14:30:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x6c533b…
05-28 11:56:39	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xe07939…
05-28 06:10:27	Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3b8796…
05-27 12:03:54	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x90ccea…
05-27 03:08:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x16a408…
05-27 02:45:01	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x21747d…
05-26 05:58:55	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x83bcce…
05-26 05:28:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xc1a4ad…
05-25 15:45:38	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$26	0xd92e64…
05-25 07:39:50	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xc59195…
05-24 16:01:29	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf57262…
05-24 04:49:07	Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd65b44…
05-23 06:24:33	Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x0793cf…
05-23 03:37:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x9238d5…
05-22 01:21:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xb4ada5…
05-22 00:25:14	Will MrBeast's next video get 66 million or more views on day 6?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xf6d907…
05-21 10:24:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$16	0x5041fd…
05-21 05:22:19	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xde6017…
05-20 16:29:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x51429b…
05-20 08:06:37	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xe90b46…
05-19 21:04:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x271723…
05-19 04:14:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x5e7374…
05-18 05:53:53	Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x4dfdcc…
05-18 01:33:50	Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x5f80cb…
05-17 15:10:01	Will Haotong Li win the 2026 PGA Championship?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6acbe0…
05-17 11:25:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xa96b2a…
05-16 15:50:01	Will Gregg Kirkpatrick win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xffc209…
05-16 07:06:28	Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xba0ee1…
05-15 00:26:15	Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x302a5b…
05-13 16:09:56	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x499d4b…