Sinful-Cupcake — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$408

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

50.9%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

192

6,626 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$4.25K

$307.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-02-01

last 10-31 17:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 253 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 47% -$7,254

Other

36% 37% -$2,819

Politics

8% 47% +$714

Sports

2% 44% +$652

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes		+1,516	$18	1¢	$12	-$6	10-31 17:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	23	$6.0K	11,644	11,644	+0	No	-$888	03-29 08:01
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	47	$5.8K	9,105	9,243	-138	No	+$1,155	03-27 07:06
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	16	$5.5K	4,157	5,057	-900	No	+$718	03-29 07:45
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	8	$3.1K	2,399	2,399	+0	Yes	+$203	03-27 08:17
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?	15	$3.0K	2,320	2,320	+0	Yes	+$1,607	09-21 01:33
will bitcoin reach 88k september 21 27 2026	11	$3.0K	7,228	7,228	+0	No	-$1,011	09-26 03:40
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	13	$3.0K	2,708	2,708	+0	Yes	-$818	02-23 07:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$2.9K	1,768	1,768	+0	Yes	+$469	02-28 20:17
nba phi cle 2026 03 09 total 227pt5	35	$2.8K	1,873	1,873	+0	Under	+$805	03-10 00:47
bitcoin above 64k on august 11 2026	14	$2.8K	3,033	3,033	+0	No	+$519	08-11 15:34
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 10 468	12	$2.7K	1,658	1,658	+0	Yes	+$470	03-08 21:15
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	7	$2.7K	3,574	3,574	+0	Yes	+$791	02-27 14:05
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	2	$2.7K	1,899	1,899	+0	Yes	+$39	03-09 20:32
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	18	$2.2K	3,138	3,138	+0	No	-$343	03-29 07:45
bitcoin above 72k on march 13	14	$2.1K	2,621	2,610	+11	No	+$267	03-13 08:38
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	7	$2.0K	5,835	5,835	+0	No	-$334	03-09 19:34
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	28	$2.0K	1,792	1,792	+0	No	+$51	03-19 18:10
Will XRP reach $1.70 September 21-27?	5	$1.8K	1,810	1,810	+0	No	+$741	09-23 04:16
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	8	$1.7K	1,697	1,697	+0	Yes	+$728	02-28 06:25
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	37	$1.7K	3,156	3,156	+0	Yes	-$881	03-10 13:46
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 65 89	26	$1.7K	1,194	1,192	+2	Yes	+$217	04-11 13:52
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 40 64	2	$1.7K	0	1,753	-1,753	No	-$35	02-22 08:41
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4?	6	$1.7K	2,799	2,799	+0	No	+$292	05-04 14:55
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 21-27?	9	$1.6K	6,212	6,212	+0	No	-$765	09-24 01:51
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	56	$1.6K	7,094	7,051	+42	No	-$79	04-17 02:41
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 320 339	15	$1.6K	2,579	2,498	+80	No	+$357	04-17 05:46
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 12 278	4	$1.6K	900	900	+0	Yes	+$191	03-08 21:15
elon musk of tweets march 9 march 11 115 139	32	$1.5K	1,010	1,009	+0	Yes	+$254	03-11 14:43
bitcoin above 70k on february 26	12	$1.5K	2,492	2,492	+0	No	+$767	02-25 21:36
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 90 114	9	$1.5K	3,485	3,485	+0	No	-$790	02-23 16:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 17:55:19	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xc0d584…
10-31 17:54:07	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x3ce490…
10-31 17:51:09	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x09755b…
10-31 17:47:52	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	686	7¢	$50	0x22cf45…
10-31 17:45:57	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0x04770a…
10-31 17:45:55	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	12¢	$2	0xfdc48a…
10-31 17:45:55	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0xd43360…
10-31 17:45:55	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x50326b…
10-31 17:45:34	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	19¢	$27	0xc65990…
10-31 17:45:25	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	600	5¢	$30	0xd0b44c…
10-31 17:45:24	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0xbebb8d…
10-31 17:45:24	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0x6d5f0a…
10-31 17:45:12	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xe8fe7d…
10-31 17:45:12	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xd55107…
10-31 17:45:09	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0xf213cd…
10-31 17:45:09	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x8d3140…
10-31 17:44:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	750	1¢	$9	0xcfb4fe…
10-31 17:43:54	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0xf620b4…
10-31 17:43:54	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0x00ad2b…
10-31 17:43:27	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xee014e…
10-31 17:43:27	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe54ab8…
10-31 17:43:09	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xa8aebb…
10-31 17:43:09	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x85f0f1…
10-31 17:43:09	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x4ff4b7…
10-31 17:43:09	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x33f970…
10-31 17:43:03	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	22¢	$4	0x3f674b…
10-31 17:43:01	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xbc13cc…
10-31 17:43:00	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$3	0x4dfda3…
10-31 17:42:39	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xb0c5fc…
10-31 17:42:25	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xdab85c…
10-31 17:42:25	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	22¢	$19	0x0a1f45…
10-31 17:41:39	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0xe69433…
10-31 17:40:46	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x6249e5…
10-31 17:39:33	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xf1cae7…
10-31 17:39:25	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0x0b1a2c…
10-31 17:38:45	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x1318d7…
10-31 17:38:45	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x038a5a…
10-31 17:38:43	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xcb8891…
10-31 17:38:43	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	19¢	$17	0xbca23c…
10-31 17:38:43	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x637463…
10-31 17:38:36	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf6ac83…
10-31 17:38:36	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xb6a4e4…
10-31 17:38:34	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	18¢	$29	0x3f8841…
10-31 17:37:30	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	18¢	$25	0x59f37f…
10-31 17:37:25	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	20¢	$14	0xaf17b2…
10-31 17:37:25	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x639127…
10-31 17:37:22	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0xea5eff…
10-31 17:37:21	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe45ac8…
10-31 17:36:57	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	20¢	$3	0xb4c186…
10-31 17:36:46	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	19¢	$16	0x02dd23…
10-31 17:36:28	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	19¢	$1	0x35b993…
10-31 17:36:22	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x39971d…
10-31 17:36:07	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	19¢	$2	0xa6cad9…
10-31 17:35:48	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x370f94…
10-31 17:35:30	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	18¢	$12	0x4639c5…
10-31 17:34:06	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	19¢	$48	0xd1572d…
10-31 17:33:58	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	140	73¢	$102	0x7b0f2c…
10-31 17:31:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	766	1¢	$9	0x55ba9a…
10-31 15:46:40	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	18¢	$27	0x2253ed…
10-31 15:35:55	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	300	6¢	$18	0xfb298b…
10-31 15:08:25	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	60	63¢	$38	0xafef10…
10-31 14:29:34	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x46f9d9…
10-31 11:42:00	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	140	70¢	$98	0xab05ec…
10-31 11:38:04	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	300	7¢	$21	0x5123f6…
10-31 07:51:01	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Yes	SELL	241	2¢	$5	0x4f3d9e…
10-31 07:50:43	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	325	0¢	$1	0xdb96bb…
10-31 07:50:37	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	491	1¢	$5	0x444777…
10-30 22:14:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	248	57¢	$142	0xd8ddc1…
10-30 17:53:12	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x8a6a2e…
10-30 17:53:12	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0x44a67d…
10-30 17:53:12	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x0efcad…
10-30 17:53:10	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x802884…
10-30 17:53:10	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	9¢	$3	0x114e72…
10-30 17:11:13	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0xcd9286…
10-30 17:10:57	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x6fb162…
10-30 17:10:46	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xeabe0e…
10-30 17:10:24	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0x1bc847…
10-30 17:09:55	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0xbd9001…
10-30 17:09:25	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	205	15¢	$30	0x71b683…
10-30 14:17:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30?	No	SELL	370	15¢	$57	0x32035c…
10-30 14:11:31	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	7¢	$10	0x6c6a99…
10-30 14:09:33	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	443	11¢	$50	0x2cebb9…
10-30 13:36:12	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	343	66¢	$228	0x2ab9cc…
10-30 12:58:31	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	28¢	$20	0x96fc0e…
10-30 12:42:54	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x80cf14…
10-30 12:42:09	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x1c4261…
10-30 12:40:54	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x243b79…
10-30 12:40:24	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x70a54a…
10-30 12:40:09	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x87c536…
10-30 12:39:58	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	28¢	$27	0xd21365…
10-30 05:33:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	113	27¢	$30	0x30ca5a…
10-30 05:33:00	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	241	12¢	$30	0xdc4164…
10-30 05:13:58	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xcbb7da…
10-30 05:00:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30?	No	BUY	370	8¢	$30	0x4e4381…
10-30 04:58:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	136	37¢	$50	0x95048b…
10-29 03:15:43	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x718184…
10-28 17:57:14	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xcd7de9…
10-28 10:58:35	Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	171	11¢	$19	0x3a00fc…
10-28 09:33:55	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xf2b605…
10-28 09:32:52	Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	29	11¢	$3	0xec8c9f…