Sinful-Cupcake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8.63K

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

59.4%

Resolved

1,594

Trades

6,776

lifetime

Volume

$314.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

$58

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 11-09 09:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 262 days

Categories

Crypto

55% 46% -$7,054

Other

35% 37% -$2,875

Politics

8% 41% +$643

Sports

2% 44% +$652

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes		+499	$48	11¢	$56	+$8	11-09 15:48
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes		+87	$3	3¢	$3	$0	11-09 15:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	23	$6.0K	11,644	11,644	+0	No	-$888	03-29 08:01
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	47	$5.8K	9,105	9,243	-138	No	+$1,155	03-27 07:06
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	16	$5.5K	4,157	5,057	-900	No	+$718	03-29 07:45
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	8	$3.1K	2,399	2,399	+0	Yes	+$203	03-27 08:17
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?	15	$3.0K	2,320	2,320	+0	Yes	+$1,607	09-21 01:33
will bitcoin reach 88k september 21 27 2026	11	$3.0K	7,228	7,228	+0	No	-$1,011	09-26 03:40
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	13	$3.0K	2,708	2,708	+0	Yes	-$818	02-23 07:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$2.9K	1,768	1,768	+0	Yes	+$469	02-28 20:17
nba phi cle 2026 03 09 total 227pt5	35	$2.8K	1,873	1,873	+0	Under	+$805	03-10 00:47
bitcoin above 64k on august 11 2026	14	$2.8K	3,033	3,033	+0	No	+$519	08-11 15:34
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 10 468	12	$2.7K	1,658	1,658	+0	Yes	+$470	03-08 21:15
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	7	$2.7K	3,574	3,574	+0	Yes	+$791	02-27 14:05
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	2	$2.7K	1,899	1,899	+0	Yes	+$39	03-09 20:32
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	20	$2.3K	1,754	1,754	+0	Yes	+$294	11-08 21:51
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	18	$2.2K	3,138	3,138	+0	No	-$343	03-29 07:45
bitcoin above 72k on march 13	14	$2.1K	2,621	2,610	+11	No	+$267	03-13 08:38
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	7	$2.0K	5,835	5,835	+0	No	-$334	03-09 19:34
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	28	$2.0K	1,792	1,792	+0	No	+$51	03-19 18:10
Will XRP reach $1.70 September 21-27?	5	$1.8K	1,810	1,810	+0	No	+$741	09-23 04:16
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	8	$1.7K	1,697	1,697	+0	Yes	+$728	02-28 06:25
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	37	$1.7K	3,156	3,156	+0	Yes	-$881	03-10 13:46
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 65 89	26	$1.7K	1,194	1,192	+2	Yes	+$217	04-11 13:52
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 40 64	2	$1.7K	0	1,753	-1,753	No	-$35	02-22 08:41
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4?	6	$1.7K	2,799	2,799	+0	No	+$292	05-04 14:55
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 21-27?	9	$1.6K	6,212	6,212	+0	No	-$765	09-24 01:51
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	56	$1.6K	7,094	7,051	+42	No	-$79	04-17 02:41
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 320 339	15	$1.6K	2,579	2,498	+80	No	+$357	04-17 05:46
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 12 278	4	$1.6K	900	900	+0	Yes	+$191	03-08 21:15
elon musk of tweets march 9 march 11 115 139	32	$1.5K	1,010	1,009	+0	Yes	+$254	03-11 14:43
bitcoin above 70k on february 26	12	$1.5K	2,492	2,492	+0	No	+$767	02-25 21:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 15:50:31	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	3¢	$3	0x9d89a7…
11-09 15:48:37	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xdc4a0a…
11-09 15:47:25	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x260324…
11-09 15:46:58	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	10¢	$10	0x15bb60…
11-09 15:46:30	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	9¢	$10	0x619aa8…
11-09 15:46:12	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on November 9?	Yes	SELL	700	1¢	$10	0x2c99a3…
11-09 15:46:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 9?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x1408be…
11-09 15:46:00	Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on November 9?	Yes	SELL	337	7¢	$24	0x2c89e6…
11-09 15:45:31	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	8¢	$8	0xa0c765…
11-09 09:04:49	Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on November 9?	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0x483411…
11-09 09:04:24	Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on November 9?	Yes	SELL	63	20¢	$13	0x227c99…
11-09 08:17:03	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x532165…
11-09 07:40:31	Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	179	49¢	$88	0xfce0e5…
11-09 07:34:27	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0x62b757…
11-09 07:34:04	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	107	24¢	$26	0x6ab952…
11-09 07:34:04	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	193	24¢	$46	0x4b4465…
11-09 07:32:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	151	58¢	$88	0x941b88…
11-09 07:31:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0x8fdd0f…
11-09 07:31:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0x3aa154…
11-09 07:30:58	Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	121	49¢	$59	0x0db041…
11-09 07:22:25	Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0xa7ffdd…
11-09 07:22:01	Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x6c4e58…
11-08 22:17:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 8?	Yes	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x88b9cc…
11-08 22:16:18	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	300	10¢	$30	0xc9a7d3…
11-08 22:11:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 8?	Yes	BUY	220	45¢	$100	0x5abb3c…
11-08 21:58:07	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	250	16¢	$40	0x2b7f5c…
11-08 21:51:31	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	710	99¢	$703	0x31a713…
11-08 13:20:00	Dota 2: Power Rangers vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	Power Rangers	BUY	128	4¢	$5	0xc79e65…
11-08 13:14:46	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	91	28¢	$25	0x716888…
11-08 13:14:45	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	59	28¢	$17	0x2fb9a4…
11-08 13:10:22	Dota 2: Power Rangers vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	Power Rangers	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x90e803…
11-08 13:09:58	Dota 2: Power Rangers vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	Power Rangers	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x763b93…
11-08 13:09:31	Dota 2: Power Rangers vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	Power Rangers	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xa7ce42…
11-07 15:54:52	Ethereum Up or Down on November 7?	Down	SELL	218	45¢	$98	0x1e9f06…
11-07 15:49:52	Ethereum Up or Down on November 7?	Down	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x3a3c46…
11-07 08:46:04	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	243	36¢	$87	0x8de0b2…
11-07 08:38:48	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0x40beaa…
11-07 08:23:03	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	660	15¢	$99	0x6f36d2…
11-07 06:10:16	Ethereum Up or Down on November 7?	Down	BUY	228	22¢	$50	0x451b50…
11-07 05:29:18	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	916	4¢	$34	0x52c153…
11-06 19:42:31	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	13¢	$7	0xdee1a8…
11-06 19:42:31	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	13¢	$6	0x929115…
11-06 19:42:31	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x27303a…
11-06 19:42:21	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	13¢	$4	0xcadc15…
11-06 19:42:13	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	13¢	$2	0x064a9a…
11-06 19:42:12	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x307d76…
11-06 19:41:58	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x848a7a…
11-06 19:41:28	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd1747c…
11-06 19:41:13	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x3b7746…
11-06 19:38:25	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	15¢	$30	0x32da1e…
11-06 19:37:49	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x918192…
11-06 19:37:49	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	95	64¢	$61	0x2707f1…
11-06 19:36:22	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x41be4c…
11-06 19:30:31	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	12¢	$6	0x47d006…
11-06 19:29:58	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x5f2f71…
11-06 19:29:49	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0xa0bb8c…
11-06 19:29:43	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x088b1c…
11-06 19:29:13	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	12¢	$2	0x5bb11f…
11-06 19:28:58	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x6e3aad…
11-06 19:28:19	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	13¢	$14	0x434488…
11-06 15:49:04	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x4173a3…
11-06 15:48:46	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	182	16¢	$30	0x84fd43…
11-06 15:08:24	Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Revise (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs	Revise	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x693d3b…
11-06 15:07:10	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x57f237…
11-06 15:07:09	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	290	22¢	$64	0x49b5b5…
11-06 15:06:19	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe0203b…
11-06 15:05:57	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	424	24¢	$100	0xcdc2bb…
11-06 15:05:57	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x4230d4…
11-06 15:05:57	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	2	22¢	$1	0x069452…
11-06 15:05:37	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x9f1b1e…
11-06 15:04:07	Dota 2: rostikfacekid TEAM vs Stray Team (BO3) - Media Eleague Group Stage	Stray Team	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x178dbf…
11-06 14:51:33	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	365	52¢	$192	0xe68af0…
11-06 14:28:48	Dota 2: angry birds vs PuckChamp (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group A	PuckChamp	SELL	72	34¢	$25	0x3212ca…
11-06 14:28:01	Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group C	Sökerorg	SELL	30	68¢	$21	0x68ae49…
11-06 13:55:06	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs oveA (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Decider	oveA	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x9369f6…
11-06 13:54:25	Dota 2: angry birds vs PuckChamp (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group A	PuckChamp	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0xf86c4d…
11-06 13:50:42	Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner	Sökerorg	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0xd454de…
11-06 13:50:36	Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group C	Sökerorg	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xf5ba51…
11-06 13:50:00	Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner	Sökerorg	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x95f913…
11-06 13:49:46	Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group C	Sökerorg	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xfdeb3f…
11-06 13:48:16	Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Zetta Games (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage	Zetta Games	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x4fb1f4…
11-06 13:47:03	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Froglings (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A	Xipto Esports	SELL	13	33¢	$4	0x1026fb…
11-06 13:46:54	Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C	ILLYRIANS	SELL	14	52¢	$7	0x210c6a…
11-06 13:46:34	Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Zetta Games (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage	Zetta Games	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0x459956…
11-06 13:46:25	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs oveA - Game 2 Winner	oveA	SELL	17	69¢	$12	0x74bef7…
11-06 13:46:16	Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group C	MASONIC	SELL	26	70¢	$18	0x40c6ab…
11-06 13:39:18	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs oveA (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Decider	oveA	SELL	33	16¢	$5	0xc89dea…
11-06 13:20:30	Dota 2: Daxak Team vs Cooman Team (BO3) - Media Eleague Group Stage	Daxak Team	BUY	43	11¢	$5	0xf59a89…
11-06 13:19:45	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs oveA - Game 2 Winner	oveA	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x6837ca…
11-06 13:19:30	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs oveA (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Decider	oveA	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x72229c…
11-06 13:15:21	Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group C	MASONIC	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xae8afc…
11-06 13:03:13	Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Zetta Games (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage	Zetta Games	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x12157c…
11-06 13:02:46	Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C	ILLYRIANS	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xe693dd…
11-06 13:02:19	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Froglings (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A	Xipto Esports	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xc75f54…
11-06 13:01:45	Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner	MASONIC	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xc8bac3…
11-06 08:39:49	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x784021…
11-06 08:39:42	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0x6098a4…
11-06 08:31:36	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs	PARIVISION	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xc11067…
11-06 06:30:36	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	78	78¢	$61	0xe3c453…
11-06 06:30:24	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	287	77¢	$220	0xa56cce…