Sinful-Cupcake — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$432

Unrealized P&L

-$55

Hit rate

54.3%

Resolved (90d)

436

Trades (90d)

1,754

6,672 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$102.4K

$311.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

$535

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 11-05 16:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 258 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 47% -$6,915

Other

36% 37% -$2,752

Politics

8% 41% +$643

Sports

2% 44% +$652

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	+766	$530	70¢	$532	+$2	11-05 16:47
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	+200	$30	1¢	$2	-$28	11-02 19:02
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	+200	$30	0¢	$0	-$30	11-02 19:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	23	$6.0K	11,644	11,644	+0	No	-$888	03-29 08:01
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	47	$5.8K	9,105	9,243	-138	No	+$1,155	03-27 07:06
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	16	$5.5K	4,157	5,057	-900	No	+$718	03-29 07:45
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	8	$3.1K	2,399	2,399	+0	Yes	+$203	03-27 08:17
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?	15	$3.0K	2,320	2,320	+0	Yes	+$1,607	09-21 01:33
will bitcoin reach 88k september 21 27 2026	11	$3.0K	7,228	7,228	+0	No	-$1,011	09-26 03:40
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	13	$3.0K	2,708	2,708	+0	Yes	-$818	02-23 07:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$2.9K	1,768	1,768	+0	Yes	+$469	02-28 20:17
nba phi cle 2026 03 09 total 227pt5	35	$2.8K	1,873	1,873	+0	Under	+$805	03-10 00:47
bitcoin above 64k on august 11 2026	14	$2.8K	3,033	3,033	+0	No	+$519	08-11 15:34
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 10 468	12	$2.7K	1,658	1,658	+0	Yes	+$470	03-08 21:15
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	7	$2.7K	3,574	3,574	+0	Yes	+$791	02-27 14:05
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	2	$2.7K	1,899	1,899	+0	Yes	+$39	03-09 20:32
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	18	$2.2K	3,138	3,138	+0	No	-$343	03-29 07:45
bitcoin above 72k on march 13	14	$2.1K	2,621	2,610	+11	No	+$267	03-13 08:38
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	7	$2.0K	5,835	5,835	+0	No	-$334	03-09 19:34
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	28	$2.0K	1,792	1,792	+0	No	+$51	03-19 18:10
Will XRP reach $1.70 September 21-27?	5	$1.8K	1,810	1,810	+0	No	+$741	09-23 04:16
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	8	$1.7K	1,697	1,697	+0	Yes	+$728	02-28 06:25
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	37	$1.7K	3,156	3,156	+0	Yes	-$881	03-10 13:46
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 65 89	26	$1.7K	1,194	1,192	+2	Yes	+$217	04-11 13:52
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 40 64	2	$1.7K	0	1,753	-1,753	No	-$35	02-22 08:41
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4?	6	$1.7K	2,799	2,799	+0	No	+$292	05-04 14:55
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 21-27?	9	$1.6K	6,212	6,212	+0	No	-$765	09-24 01:51
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	56	$1.6K	7,094	7,051	+42	No	-$79	04-17 02:41
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 320 339	15	$1.6K	2,579	2,498	+80	No	+$357	04-17 05:46
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 12 278	4	$1.6K	900	900	+0	Yes	+$191	03-08 21:15
elon musk of tweets march 9 march 11 115 139	32	$1.5K	1,010	1,009	+0	Yes	+$254	03-11 14:43
bitcoin above 70k on february 26	12	$1.5K	2,492	2,492	+0	No	+$767	02-25 21:36
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 90 114	9	$1.5K	3,485	3,485	+0	No	-$790	02-23 16:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 16:47:31	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0xfc220b…
11-05 16:47:12	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x069171…
11-05 16:46:49	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xa3142b…
11-05 16:46:27	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	106	57¢	$60	0xd5332e…
11-05 16:45:42	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xa6f097…
11-05 16:45:01	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	355	56¢	$200	0x54e1ef…
11-05 16:09:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	1,010	53¢	$540	0xdf6163…
11-05 15:49:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	211	47¢	$100	0x29bfd3…
11-05 15:48:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	202	49¢	$100	0xfa2307…
11-05 15:47:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	598	50¢	$300	0x3c7780…
11-05 15:31:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	331	36¢	$119	0xdd0db7…
11-05 15:28:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	249	79¢	$198	0x0e5c0b…
11-05 15:27:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	92	83¢	$77	0x06b535…
11-05 15:16:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	114	60¢	$68	0x012ef1…
11-05 15:14:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	144	68¢	$98	0x046ba6…
11-05 14:50:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	331	9¢	$30	0x7024c7…
11-05 14:50:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0xe4b222…
11-05 14:50:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0x2b55d5…
11-05 14:49:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	117	26¢	$30	0x70be33…
11-05 14:48:31	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	495	20¢	$99	0x085039…
11-05 13:05:37	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	42	36¢	$15	0x75e546…
11-04 15:32:01	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	308	65¢	$200	0xfb40e0…
11-04 15:26:51	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	305	26¢	$80	0xc5dc69…
11-04 14:58:16	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	158	6¢	$10	0x1433fc…
11-04 14:58:06	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0xfbe065…
11-04 14:58:04	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	63	6¢	$3	0x43e608…
11-04 14:57:16	Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	54	19¢	$10	0x06da0c…
11-04 14:57:13	Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	23	19¢	$4	0x5bf88b…
11-04 14:57:13	Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x1e97f8…
11-04 14:57:13	Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x17b7c0…
11-04 14:56:03	Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	195	21¢	$40	0xb13d10…
11-04 14:46:07	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	145	36¢	$52	0xaa1c93…
11-04 14:45:40	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0xac3bd2…
11-04 14:45:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on November 4?	Yes	SELL	67	3¢	$2	0xe1fcd4…
11-04 14:45:27	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	294	5¢	$15	0x2214e9…
11-04 14:45:19	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0xc1cbe2…
11-04 06:04:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xb0abcb…
11-03 02:28:33	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x727de5…
11-03 00:37:43	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x9eaeba…
11-03 00:37:43	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x098f5b…
11-02 22:06:36	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x34db15…
11-02 21:51:46	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0x1eb4ee…
11-02 21:29:06	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	38¢	$32	0xec4eab…
11-02 21:28:37	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	38¢	$9	0xeb7b2f…
11-02 21:28:15	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	38¢	$14	0xb72c05…
11-02 21:27:31	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	39¢	$16	0x0bdb85…
11-02 21:27:13	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	40¢	$22	0x32086e…
11-02 21:26:45	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	39¢	$24	0x32a259…
11-02 21:26:18	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	40¢	$31	0x6e107f…
11-02 21:25:45	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	41¢	$49	0x679bd3…
11-02 21:21:39	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	102	41¢	$42	0x34d020…
11-02 19:02:36	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xba43e2…
11-02 19:02:21	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x1741e2…
11-02 18:41:46	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	402	26¢	$103	0xae3f19…
11-02 15:27:30	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$3	0xef2f69…
11-02 07:31:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on November 2?	Yes	BUY	250	14¢	$35	0x9e3f7c…
11-02 06:10:06	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x8e2b2d…
11-02 02:22:45	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	686	0¢	$2	0x8c18bf…
10-31 17:55:19	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xc0d584…
10-31 17:54:07	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x3ce490…
10-31 17:51:09	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x09755b…
10-31 17:47:52	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	686	7¢	$50	0x22cf45…
10-31 17:45:57	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0x04770a…
10-31 17:45:55	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	12¢	$2	0xfdc48a…
10-31 17:45:55	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0xd43360…
10-31 17:45:55	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x50326b…
10-31 17:45:34	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	19¢	$27	0xc65990…
10-31 17:45:25	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	600	5¢	$30	0xd0b44c…
10-31 17:45:24	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0xbebb8d…
10-31 17:45:24	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0x6d5f0a…
10-31 17:45:12	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xe8fe7d…
10-31 17:45:12	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xd55107…
10-31 17:45:09	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0xf213cd…
10-31 17:45:09	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x8d3140…
10-31 17:44:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	750	1¢	$9	0xcfb4fe…
10-31 17:43:54	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0xf620b4…
10-31 17:43:54	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0x00ad2b…
10-31 17:43:27	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xee014e…
10-31 17:43:27	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe54ab8…
10-31 17:43:09	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xa8aebb…
10-31 17:43:09	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x85f0f1…
10-31 17:43:09	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x4ff4b7…
10-31 17:43:09	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x33f970…
10-31 17:43:03	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	22¢	$4	0x3f674b…
10-31 17:43:01	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xbc13cc…
10-31 17:43:00	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$3	0x4dfda3…
10-31 17:42:39	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xb0c5fc…
10-31 17:42:25	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xdab85c…
10-31 17:42:25	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	22¢	$19	0x0a1f45…
10-31 17:41:39	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0xe69433…
10-31 17:40:46	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x6249e5…
10-31 17:39:33	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xf1cae7…
10-31 17:39:25	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0x0b1a2c…
10-31 17:38:45	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x1318d7…
10-31 17:38:45	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x038a5a…
10-31 17:38:43	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xcb8891…
10-31 17:38:43	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	19¢	$17	0xbca23c…
10-31 17:38:43	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x637463…
10-31 17:38:36	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf6ac83…
10-31 17:38:36	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xb6a4e4…