Shocked-Direction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.4%

Resolved

1,291

Trades

6,236

lifetime

Volume

$9.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 08-19 19:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 60% $-22

Politics

6% 100% +$50

Other

6% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	21	$162	93	73	+21	open	—	03-27 19:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	35	$88	110	81	+28	open	—	04-01 00:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	30	$73	124	124	+0	open	—	04-01 04:51
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	21	$63	200	200	+0	open	—	03-27 04:38
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	26	$54	280	280	+0	open	—	03-30 21:00
will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	24	$36	25	25	+0	open	—	03-25 07:59
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	10	$34	32	32	+0	open	—	05-17 06:51
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	18	$28	140	29	+111	open	—	03-28 07:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$27	17	17	+0	open	—	04-06 17:48
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	15	$25	37	37	+0	open	—	03-28 15:13
Will there be fewer than 2 major space weather events this week?	6	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	04-24 08:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	25	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	04-19 16:46
btc updown 5m 1773598500	1	$21	36	0	+36	open	—	03-15 18:10
btc updown 5m 1773588600	1	$20	38	0	+38	open	—	03-15 15:25
btc updown 5m 1773597000	1	$20	37	0	+37	open	—	03-15 17:45
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	8	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	04-05 11:19
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	37	$18	12	12	+0	open	—	04-01 03:40
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	13	$17	30	30	+0	open	—	03-31 00:49
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	10	$17	17	14	+3	open	—	04-25 19:56
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?	9	$17	11	11	+0	open	—	05-15 09:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	38	$16	74	74	+0	open	—	04-09 01:09
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	7	$16	9	9	+0	open	—	04-21 22:12
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	9	$16	15	15	+0	open	—	03-29 16:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	4	$15	14	14	+0	open	—	05-25 13:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	13	$15	79	46	+32	Yes	+$27	03-31 16:39
will trump say third term in march	7	$14	28	28	+0	open	—	04-01 08:10
will there be 5 or fewer us strikes on somalia in march 2026	4	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	03-30 07:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	4	$13	13	13	+0	open	—	05-26 19:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	4	$13	12	12	+0	open	—	05-24 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	3	$12	12	6	+6	open	—	05-24 15:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-19 19:30:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf80a4f…
08-19 19:30:51	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc7e93d…
08-19 19:30:51	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8e3228…
08-19 19:30:51	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5559f8…
08-19 19:30:49	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8d36e5…
08-19 19:30:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8eeaf8…
08-19 19:30:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x415184…
08-19 19:30:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x409ccb…
08-19 19:30:46	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc31549…
08-19 19:30:46	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5287a2…
08-19 19:30:45	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf16e7d…
08-19 19:30:45	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x65baa9…
08-19 19:30:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf5c962…
08-19 19:30:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x16fa42…
08-19 19:30:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0274c0…
08-19 19:30:42	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x6f5f5a…
08-19 19:30:42	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x12df1d…
08-19 19:30:40	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x6262cc…
08-19 19:30:40	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x44aaba…
08-19 19:30:39	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf8a914…
08-19 19:30:39	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb2149b…
08-19 19:30:37	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe2cec5…
08-19 19:30:37	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x61bb23…
08-19 19:30:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd180a0…
08-19 19:30:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc900f8…
08-19 19:30:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc647fd…
08-19 19:30:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x1d7bbc…
08-19 19:30:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x96ee2f…
08-19 19:30:33	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb45cf1…
08-19 19:30:33	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xafdaca…
08-19 19:30:33	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x737bc7…
08-19 19:30:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf23cb1…
08-19 19:30:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x1d908b…
08-19 19:30:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe86522…
08-19 19:30:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x4a4742…
08-19 19:30:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x260931…
08-19 19:30:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x18ad97…
08-19 19:30:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x16e7a9…
08-19 19:30:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x809a3d…
08-19 19:30:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xab077c…
08-19 19:30:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x183497…
08-19 19:30:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc3da4f…
08-19 19:30:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x890b20…
08-19 19:30:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5ec9ea…
08-19 19:30:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3be9f4…
08-19 19:30:24	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8448fc…
08-19 19:30:24	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x415d15…
08-19 19:30:22	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xfac7dd…
08-19 19:30:22	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x920cce…
08-19 19:30:21	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x32b076…
08-19 19:30:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf253f0…
08-19 19:30:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe070f4…
08-19 19:30:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xa13dd7…
08-19 06:34:57	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x68ea6f…
08-19 06:34:39	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc1693c…
08-19 04:01:18	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7fc00a…
08-18 18:28:12	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$1	0x35dc6a…
08-18 18:05:12	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x0d5c33…
08-18 18:05:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x82bcaf…
08-18 18:05:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xfd2e41…
08-15 09:18:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x147080…
08-15 07:51:42	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xc1e7bc…
08-14 07:36:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x744b4e…
08-14 07:36:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xa5d64e…
08-12 09:47:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x454fab…
08-04 15:46:06	will russia enter orikhiv by september 30	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x634ce4…
08-04 15:28:15	will russia enter orikhiv by september 30	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xf47753…
08-04 14:48:23	will russia enter orikhiv by september 30	No	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x674c5c…
07-31 09:49:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	75¢	$5	0x64a95d…
07-31 09:05:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x248b7c…
07-31 07:15:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$0	0xb72f89…
07-31 05:55:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$0	0x80cca4…
07-31 05:17:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x6b4acb…
07-31 04:32:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$0	0xc88e59…
07-31 04:22:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xb6c3f6…
07-31 04:16:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xe5ddb5…
07-31 04:01:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$0	0xa1d573…
07-31 03:16:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x895a93…
07-31 02:55:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x310ad6…
07-31 02:42:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x6d9ab6…
07-31 02:39:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x94f24a…
07-31 02:34:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xa4950b…
07-31 01:07:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x8fb705…
07-31 01:06:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x211c65…
07-23 10:38:27	will russia enter svitle by september 30	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xf95a99…
07-22 21:10:28	will russia enter svitle by september 30	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x680e8e…
07-22 07:00:37	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x6ba33e…
07-22 06:55:22	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x6235b6…
07-22 06:54:43	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x2dc8a7…
07-22 06:54:39	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xa1708b…
07-22 06:54:06	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x0185c9…
07-22 06:28:52	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0xbe31e3…
07-22 06:28:51	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x2576bc…
07-22 06:12:25	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	36¢	$2	0x7ae891…
07-18 17:56:01	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	No	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x5d56b1…
07-18 17:13:25	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	No	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x0da394…
07-18 17:07:58	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xbd61d9…
07-18 13:44:52	btc updown 15m 1784381400	Down	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0xb436e7…
07-18 13:43:25	btc updown 15m 1784381400	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x1e8cdd…
07-18 12:56:01	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x6f5cd2…