Shocked-Direction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$268

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

56.7%

Resolved

3,416

Trades

6,516

lifetime

Volume

$9.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$58

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-28 09:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Crypto

85% 56% -$259

Politics

8% 52% -$2

Other

7% 60% -$6

Sports

0% 40% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	-86	-$30	32¢	$-28	+$2	10-20 08:05
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	+17	$15	84¢	$14	-$1	10-22 06:24
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-11	-$10	98¢	$-11	-$1	05-22 13:12
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+3	$3	92¢	$3	+$0	10-20 21:11
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	-16	-$1	8¢	$-1	$0	10-20 08:07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+0	$2	82¢	$0	-$1	10-28 09:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	21	$162	93	73	+21	No	+$3	03-27 19:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	35	$88	110	81	+28	Yes	+$12	04-01 00:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	30	$73	124	124	+0	Yes	-$7	04-01 04:51
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	21	$63	200	200	+0	No	-$1	03-27 04:38
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	26	$54	280	280	+0	No	-$34	03-30 21:00
will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	24	$36	25	25	+0	No	-$8	03-25 07:59
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	10	$34	32	32	+0	Yes	+$4	05-17 06:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	36	$32	20	20	+0	open	—	10-28 09:28
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$30	0	86	-86	open	—	10-20 08:05
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	18	$28	140	29	+111	Yes	-$14	03-28 07:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$27	17	17	+0	Yes	+$7	04-06 17:48
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	15	$25	37	37	+0	No	+$1	03-28 15:13
Will there be fewer than 2 major space weather events this week?	6	$23	14	14	+0	No	+$3	04-24 08:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	25	$21	15	15	+0	No	+$1	04-19 16:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 18:15 UTC	1	$21	36	0	+36	Up	-$21	03-15 18:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 15:30 UTC	1	$20	38	0	+38	Up	-$20	03-15 15:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 17:50 UTC	1	$20	37	0	+37	Up	-$20	03-15 17:45
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	8	$20	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	04-05 11:19
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	37	$18	12	12	+0	No	+$1	04-01 03:40
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	13	$17	30	30	+0	Yes	-$3	03-31 00:49
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	10	$17	17	14	+3	Yes	+$1	04-25 19:56
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?	9	$17	11	11	+0	No	+$1	05-15 09:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	38	$16	74	74	+0	Yes	-$4	04-09 01:09
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	7	$16	9	9	+0	Yes	+$0	04-21 22:12
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	9	$16	15	15	+0	No	-$4	03-29 16:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	4	$15	14	14	+0	Up	-$5	05-25 13:44
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$15	17	0	+17	Yes	+$2	10-25 23:24
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	5	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	10-22 06:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	13	$15	79	46	+32	Yes	+$27	03-31 16:39
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	4	$14	2	13	-11	open	—	05-22 13:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 09:28:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xc3645a…
10-28 09:25:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xa17ffc…
10-28 09:08:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x50b81a…
10-28 07:34:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xe6568d…
10-28 07:24:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x91792a…
10-28 05:02:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xaf1aa8…
10-28 03:57:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xc5e107…
10-28 02:07:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x423dde…
10-28 01:08:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x38905b…
10-28 00:42:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x5aaa50…
10-27 23:32:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x62495f…
10-27 23:31:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xcd984a…
10-27 23:11:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x68d085…
10-26 18:46:14	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x774d84…
10-25 23:24:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x3f175d…
10-25 23:19:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x500fd8…
10-25 23:19:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xf8de6f…
10-25 23:19:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xd6f5d1…
10-25 23:19:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x76b19b…
10-24 02:07:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x9e5c72…
10-24 02:03:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x363245…
10-24 01:53:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xfb970d…
10-24 00:43:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x795ddd…
10-24 00:29:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x21977b…
10-22 06:24:14	Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x62219d…
10-22 04:57:26	Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x67c9f8…
10-22 02:55:17	Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x761a58…
10-21 23:54:47	Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xfbcc41…
10-21 20:44:45	Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x450991…
10-20 21:11:20	Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xf6f4aa…
10-20 08:07:20	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x8f1948…
10-20 08:07:07	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	6¢	$1	0x034002…
10-20 08:07:01	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x29914d…
10-20 08:06:55	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0x9a237b…
10-20 08:06:34	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0xd99e93…
10-20 08:06:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0xc81ac2…
10-20 08:06:10	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x614a73…
10-20 08:05:50	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	68¢	$6	0xcc7801…
10-20 08:05:43	Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	17	45¢	$7	0xf58aa9…
10-20 08:05:28	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	86	35¢	$30	0x1fe72f…
10-14 08:16:20	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xd7a975…
10-14 06:08:52	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xb9faed…
10-08 19:38:48	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x621902…
10-08 05:33:49	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x0bd161…
10-08 05:33:08	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xf13b37…
10-07 21:35:58	Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc3c9cd…
10-07 16:22:55	Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xa63859…
10-07 03:47:44	Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x1d5137…
10-06 21:20:32	Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xc4d0f9…
10-06 21:01:50	Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x78ca65…
10-06 21:00:44	Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xa3bde3…
10-06 20:58:00	Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x3ac478…
10-03 19:42:04	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by march 31 2027	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x6d214f…
10-03 18:15:33	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x727f99…
10-03 16:59:12	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x80cd31…
10-03 16:53:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xf48446…
10-02 21:11:56	will russia invade another country by december 31 2027	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x3f8e4e…
10-02 18:55:18	will russia invade another country by december 31 2027	No	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0xdde13a…
10-02 18:54:05	will russia invade another country by december 31 2027	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x1715fc…
10-02 11:50:54	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xb6663a…
10-01 07:03:03	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x66f727…
10-01 06:59:09	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x824fc9…
10-01 06:55:09	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xf4f933…
10-01 06:53:36	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xeff4d1…
10-01 05:59:27	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xc26af6…
09-30 14:12:00	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xb10bf6…
09-29 15:02:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x2f221f…
09-28 16:46:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xc107ff…
09-28 08:39:03	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x67606e…
09-27 07:52:51	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xe262bc…
09-24 11:55:13	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x5f6ab8…
09-24 11:32:54	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xb15426…
09-24 11:16:54	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x09e223…
09-22 07:34:15	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x161778…
09-22 07:34:13	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x591df7…
09-22 06:45:19	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0xf997bf…
09-21 16:28:06	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xfe2899…
09-20 19:39:26	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xa6be35…
09-20 19:38:17	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x3a8183…
09-20 19:37:38	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0x63da04…
09-20 18:31:30	Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x1af2ad…
09-20 15:35:52	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xa209d0…
09-20 15:31:27	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xcc8df1…
09-20 15:31:27	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xa1f2da…
09-20 15:29:45	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xfaa3ef…
09-19 12:27:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x7905b6…
09-19 12:27:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x679b34…
09-19 12:26:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x17cacd…
09-18 15:33:33	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x276c0e…
09-18 15:32:52	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x086520…
09-16 21:42:16	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0xbe6033…
09-15 09:31:12	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xae0254…
09-15 06:51:33	Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x754f85…
09-11 18:41:45	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xdec10c…
09-11 09:13:28	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x5a6680…
09-11 07:54:46	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	SELL	3	22¢	$1	0x23e6e9…
09-11 07:00:15	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0x36db7c…
09-11 06:41:40	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x95ee19…
09-11 06:41:36	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xa82092…
09-10 06:39:27	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xaab414…