Shocked-Direction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.4%

Resolved

1,291

Trades

6,128

lifetime

Volume

$9.38K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 07-09 14:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 60% $-22

Politics

6% 100% +$50

Other

5% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 441 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	21	$162	93	73	+21	open	—	03-27 19:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	35	$88	110	81	+28	open	—	04-01 00:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	30	$73	124	124	+0	open	—	04-01 04:51
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	21	$63	200	200	+0	open	—	03-27 04:38
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	26	$54	280	280	+0	open	—	03-30 21:00
will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	24	$36	25	25	+0	open	—	03-25 07:59
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	10	$34	32	32	+0	open	—	05-17 06:51
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	18	$28	140	29	+111	open	—	03-28 07:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$27	17	17	+0	open	—	04-06 17:48
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	15	$25	37	37	+0	open	—	03-28 15:13
Will there be fewer than 2 major space weather events this week?	6	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	04-24 08:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	25	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	04-19 16:46
btc updown 5m 1773598500	1	$21	36	0	+36	open	—	03-15 18:10
btc updown 5m 1773588600	1	$20	38	0	+38	open	—	03-15 15:25
btc updown 5m 1773597000	1	$20	37	0	+37	open	—	03-15 17:45
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	8	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	04-05 11:19
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	37	$18	12	12	+0	open	—	04-01 03:40
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	13	$17	30	30	+0	open	—	03-31 00:49
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	10	$17	17	14	+3	open	—	04-25 19:56
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?	9	$17	11	11	+0	open	—	05-15 09:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	38	$16	74	74	+0	open	—	04-09 01:09
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	7	$16	9	9	+0	open	—	04-21 22:12
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	9	$16	15	15	+0	open	—	03-29 16:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	4	$15	14	14	+0	open	—	05-25 13:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	13	$15	79	46	+32	Yes	+$27	03-31 16:39
will trump say third term in march	7	$14	28	28	+0	open	—	04-01 08:10
will there be 5 or fewer us strikes on somalia in march 2026	4	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	03-30 07:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	4	$13	13	13	+0	open	—	05-26 19:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	4	$13	12	12	+0	open	—	05-24 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	3	$12	12	6	+6	open	—	05-24 15:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 14:04:50	will ukraine re enter uspenivka by december 31	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x865078…
07-09 14:04:35	will ukraine re enter obratne or temyrivka by december 31	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xa647d1…
07-09 09:03:20	will ukraine re enter uspenivka by december 31	No	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x659b73…
07-09 06:22:22	will ukraine re enter obratne or temyrivka by december 31	No	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x8f7824…
07-09 06:20:22	will ukraine re enter obratne or temyrivka by december 31	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x7d2142…
07-09 06:20:17	will ukraine re enter uspenivka by december 31	No	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0xff6b17…
07-05 08:42:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	7	35¢	$2	0xc0a65a…
07-01 07:15:49	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0x0fb73b…
06-28 05:36:38	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0xebc65e…
06-28 05:35:41	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0x7abae3…
06-28 05:35:41	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0x3cd2f7…
06-28 05:34:29	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0x6e45ed…
06-28 05:34:28	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0x45c681…
06-28 05:34:28	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0x2483b8…
06-28 05:34:28	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0x0982dc…
06-28 05:33:40	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x936ada…
06-28 05:33:35	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0xa30aeb…
06-28 05:33:32	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0xfb1531…
06-28 05:33:32	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0x7fb513…
06-28 05:33:31	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0xa33f69…
06-28 05:33:31	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0x96ce2e…
06-28 05:33:31	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0x75fa62…
06-28 05:33:31	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0x164340…
06-27 17:58:40	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	38¢	$0	0x500098…
06-27 17:58:26	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0xf197e0…
06-27 15:57:08	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xa1574a…
06-27 15:57:08	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x763350…
06-27 15:57:08	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x270f2f…
06-27 15:55:46	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x51bf17…
06-27 15:55:46	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x2893ed…
06-27 15:55:37	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	33¢	$0	0xf14885…
06-27 15:55:35	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	33¢	$0	0x6dc206…
06-27 15:55:34	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	33¢	$0	0x4ac911…
06-27 15:55:32	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xd97fbf…
06-27 15:55:31	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x150486…
06-27 15:54:58	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0xbb7cc1…
06-27 15:54:58	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0x24d3b2…
06-27 15:54:56	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x422c00…
06-27 15:54:56	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x183284…
06-27 15:54:55	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xb22cb1…
06-15 21:58:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x703b78…
06-13 21:13:15	will russia enter kindrashivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x1b1ed7…
06-12 21:19:37	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x86a89d…
06-12 17:35:13	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xd9d97f…
06-07 14:04:49	will ukraine re enter uspenivka by december 31	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x8cee37…
06-06 18:38:00	will ukraine re enter uspenivka by december 31	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2ebf6e…
06-01 14:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xc76f0b…
06-01 13:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x935189…
06-01 12:30:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x313c86…
06-01 12:23:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x4990f4…
06-01 11:49:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xc6fa6c…
06-01 11:03:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x08d7f0…
06-01 10:38:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x372995…
06-01 08:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0xbdcb58…
06-01 08:43:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x2a5082…
06-01 08:28:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x3977f3…
06-01 08:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x4aff2d…
06-01 07:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x4505ad…
06-01 02:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xc4f66f…
05-31 22:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x212d92…
05-31 16:54:05	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x288242…
05-31 05:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x3711ae…
05-31 05:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x62c352…
05-31 05:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x1a75da…
05-31 04:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x77e26c…
05-31 04:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa749eb…
05-31 03:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x41fd73…
05-31 03:17:46	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xc66914…
05-31 02:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x8bc063…
05-31 02:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xb332d3…
05-31 02:43:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x54b59c…
05-31 01:58:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x5d12d9…
05-31 01:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0xc41a24…
05-31 01:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x807c2d…
05-31 01:28:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xeaf69d…
05-31 01:28:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xb0d01d…
05-31 01:28:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xae56a5…
05-31 00:43:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x730044…
05-31 00:14:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	25¢	$2	0xc06cb1…
05-31 00:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x2d78d6…
05-30 23:45:11	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x876dc9…
05-30 23:29:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xf681fb…
05-30 23:29:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x6056c1…
05-30 23:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x96f600…
05-30 23:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xa8aeff…
05-30 22:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xe3f055…
05-30 22:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xc3e38a…
05-30 21:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x38c79f…
05-30 21:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x8dea86…
05-30 21:44:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x7eb8b6…
05-30 21:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x77e6c2…
05-30 21:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x8670c6…
05-30 20:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xa70e58…
05-30 19:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x3f3eeb…
05-30 19:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x8be380…
05-30 19:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xeeccd7…
05-30 17:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x83a812…
05-30 15:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x7894e5…
05-30 14:44:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0x48c8d0…
05-30 14:43:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x620b50…