Dutiful-Thunderstorm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.14K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.9%

Resolved

1,107

Trades

3,042

lifetime

Volume

$77.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-21 12:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Other

49% 28% -$453

Crypto

28% 54% -$1,766

Politics

20% 30% +$92

Tech

2% 36% -$10

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% 33% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 21:50 UTC	35	$1.2K	864	832	+32	Down	+$179	03-22 21:55
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	35	$1.1K	1,062	1,062	+0	Yes	-$1	08-03 14:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 21:30 UTC	26	$1.1K	811	802	+9	Down	+$149	03-22 21:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 23:15 UTC	6	$999	730	721	+9	Down	+$42	03-23 23:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 12:15 UTC	4	$944	481	481	+0	Up	+$8	03-22 12:18
Tyler: Fajing Sun vs Andre Ilagan	2	$786	925	925	+0	Andre Ilagan	+$9	06-03 02:16
val rrq1 zeta2 2026 07 24	15	$780	500	500	+0	ZETA DIVISION	$0	07-24 08:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 19:40 UTC	11	$762	492	482	+10	Up	+$164	03-22 19:44
cs2 tl1 ts7 2026 07 31	2	$760	500	500	+0	Spirit	+$0	07-30 07:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 23:45 UTC	24	$733	687	676	+11	Up	+$11	03-23 23:48
cs2 ill g2a 2026 06 10	2	$710	500	500	+0	G2 Ares	+$0	06-10 17:15
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	11	$710	521	521	+0	Yes	-$14	10-21 11:16
lol al blg 2026 06 08 game handicap home 2pt5	3	$700	500	500	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$0	06-08 09:29
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Belgium?	2	$682	2,727	2,727	+0	No	+$82	07-10 19:00
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	10	$665	650	650	+0	Yes	+$10	07-27 01:07
Birmingham: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt	11	$652	768	768	+0	Alex Bolt	+$8	06-02 09:43
cs2 ast10 tyloo 2026 06 07	8	$620	500	500	+0	TYLOO	$0	06-07 03:44
lol koia ucam1 2026 06 04	7	$610	500	500	+0	UCAM Esports Club	+$0	06-04 15:18
dota2 re vp 2026 07 14 game1	2	$610	500	500	+0	Virtus.pro	+$0	07-13 21:49
cs2 fal2 bb3 2026 06 12 map handicap away 1pt5	2	$600	500	500	+0	BetBoom Team	+$0	06-12 08:09
cs2 faze bb3 2026 07 10	2	$600	500	500	+0	FaZe	+$0	07-10 08:28
val g21 100t1 2026 07 18	12	$580	500	500	+0	100 Thieves	$0	07-18 19:40
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	4	$577	322	322	+0	open	—	10-20 23:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 19:35 UTC	7	$569	324	322	+2	Up	+$41	03-22 19:39
fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 corners total 8pt5	7	$560	500	500	+0	Over	+$0	07-05 11:50
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	10	$558	500	500	+0	Yes	+$2	08-08 17:17
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage	5	$550	500	500	+0	Alliance Guardians	+$0	06-01 02:50
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	4	$535	300	300	+0	open	—	10-21 02:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 19:30 UTC	14	$533	489	481	+7	Up	+$3	03-22 19:34
France to win the second half?	2	$525	495	495	+0	Yes	+$0	07-18 19:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 19:32:58	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	No	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x990c31…
10-21 12:40:45	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xb3a587…
10-21 12:40:42	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	BUY	47	5¢	$2	0xff626f…
10-21 12:40:42	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	BUY	33	5¢	$2	0xcc3c60…
10-21 12:40:42	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa3a56e…
10-21 12:17:03	Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	9¢	$5	0xa06538…
10-21 12:17:02	Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	9¢	$6	0x4bb965…
10-21 12:11:18	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0x44baf5…
10-21 12:11:17	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x87c9e4…
10-21 11:19:50	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x378003…
10-21 11:19:48	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xd557f0…
10-21 11:16:26	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x2d1d7e…
10-21 11:16:23	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xec6324…
10-21 11:04:23	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0x666399…
10-21 11:04:21	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0x33bce0…
10-21 10:51:18	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x0110c1…
10-21 10:51:17	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xbc281b…
10-21 10:18:45	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 94?	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0xa2eb01…
10-21 10:18:44	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 94?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x4acd5d…
10-21 09:34:21	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x47b725…
10-21 09:34:18	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x9b7dd9…
10-21 09:34:17	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xccfdcc…
10-21 09:34:17	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xa568ff…
10-21 08:00:27	Will Kanye West perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0xd21242…
10-21 08:00:26	Will Kanye West perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xd80b84…
10-21 07:12:30	Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xda5769…
10-21 07:12:29	Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xd3910f…
10-21 05:54:05	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	190	89¢	$169	0xac266e…
10-21 05:54:03	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xf385b6…
10-21 05:54:02	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	86	92¢	$79	0xd79c2a…
10-21 05:54:02	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	114	92¢	$105	0xcc1699…
10-21 05:25:23	Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 World Series MVP?	Yes	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0xfcbb04…
10-21 05:02:05	Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 World Series MVP?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xce3cfc…
10-21 05:01:45	Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 World Series MVP?	Yes	SELL	57	9¢	$5	0x6ef8d2…
10-21 05:01:45	Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 World Series MVP?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x394b99…
10-21 05:01:44	Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 World Series MVP?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x4904d6…
10-21 04:30:18	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	95¢	$189	0xadedf5…
10-21 04:30:17	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x3ae5d4…
10-21 02:56:42	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	100	86¢	$86	0x9f5ec5…
10-21 02:56:39	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xcacbeb…
10-21 02:50:29	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0x2dcd9a…
10-21 02:50:27	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x033c6c…
10-21 01:41:44	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	89	28¢	$25	0x51169a…
10-21 01:41:42	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	70	29¢	$20	0xcb7f90…
10-21 01:41:41	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	19	29¢	$5	0x85b415…
10-21 01:22:38	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	78¢	$22	0x9d1c7a…
10-21 01:22:35	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	78¢	$22	0x7b2856…
10-20 23:34:32	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0xf8d46a…
10-20 23:34:30	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x851e60…
10-20 23:18:11	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	SELL	163	93¢	$151	0x3ed759…
10-20 23:18:09	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	163	93¢	$152	0xf80e77…
10-20 22:53:11	Will Drake perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x470c7a…
10-20 22:53:09	Will Drake perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x78b3ce…
10-20 21:46:42	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x7e60f8…
10-20 21:46:39	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x5f5b57…
10-20 21:39:11	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x6e8867…
10-20 21:39:09	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xb60886…
10-20 21:35:17	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	4¢	$2	0xa17f80…
10-20 21:35:15	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	5¢	$2	0x35c2d3…
10-20 21:18:53	Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	69	98¢	$68	0x13fa7e…
10-20 21:18:51	Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0xc800bc…
10-20 20:22:18	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	No	SELL	77	21¢	$16	0xc111aa…
10-20 20:22:18	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x6b8232…
10-20 20:22:18	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	No	SELL	21	20¢	$4	0x683429…
10-20 20:22:18	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	No	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x64e874…
10-20 20:00:15	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	SELL	200	37¢	$74	0x58f22b…
10-20 20:00:12	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	172	37¢	$64	0xe800ea…
10-20 20:00:12	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	28	37¢	$10	0x0f8fa1…
10-20 19:43:26	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x2703d4…
10-20 19:43:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xdecf53…
10-20 18:54:17	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	94	96¢	$90	0x95085e…
10-20 18:54:14	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	94	96¢	$90	0x8dc984…
10-20 18:35:21	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xad1eb9…
10-20 18:35:20	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0xd25b6c…
10-20 18:35:20	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	81	4¢	$4	0xb3f1ea…
10-20 18:21:02	Will Montenegro win 2026-27 Nations League Group C2?	No	SELL	20	13¢	$2	0x6175b0…
10-20 18:21:00	Will Montenegro win 2026-27 Nations League Group C2?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$2	0x01e893…
10-20 18:18:54	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	200	79¢	$157	0x0add12…
10-20 18:12:56	Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	79	32¢	$26	0x63e534…
10-20 18:12:54	Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	79	33¢	$26	0x3b4a66…
10-20 18:07:44	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	200	82¢	$163	0x5f8c43…
10-20 17:46:54	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	No	SELL	53	95¢	$50	0x9abcdc…
10-20 17:46:53	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x9afc0d…
10-18 07:19:51	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x43598b…
10-18 06:54:00	Will Yaron Zelekha be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xfa7c38…
10-18 06:53:59	Will Yaron Zelekha be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x68b8d4…
10-18 06:32:03	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0x789ac8…
10-18 06:32:03	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x2c37e6…
10-18 06:32:02	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0xeab5dd…
10-18 06:21:42	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0xecf050…
10-18 06:21:41	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x905b1c…
10-18 06:02:33	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	21	45¢	$9	0xec413b…
10-18 06:02:32	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xaaafd5…
10-18 06:02:32	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0x0ad25a…
10-18 05:40:15	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0xf9b104…
10-18 05:40:14	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x30e28a…
10-18 01:32:09	Will the Republican Party win the CA-04 House seat?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xfac3e8…
10-18 00:55:23	Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x0b655d…
10-18 00:55:21	Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x7e3244…
10-18 00:14:36	Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	22	93¢	$21	0x10ed3b…