Hoarse-Gaffer — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$27

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

79.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

2,884 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$237

$66.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 10-29 10:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Other

99% 93% -$276

Politics

1% 85% +$44

Tech

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 137 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	-44	-$10	7¢	$-3	+$7	05-05 18:51
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	-23	-$4	6¢	$-2	+$3	08-13 07:29
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	-17	-$1	6¢	$-1	$0	08-08 14:42
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	No	-22	-$5	3¢	$-1	+$4	05-06 07:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	5	$454	243	242	+0	No	+$14	07-17 08:42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	7	$440	234	234	+0	open	—	08-10 12:00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	1	$211	0	216	-216	No	-$4	05-29 06:58
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 5?	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$1	09-05 16:38
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 5?	14	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$3	09-05 16:38
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 5?	3	$182	92	92	+0	No	+$2	09-05 16:48
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on September 3?	3	$179	90	90	+0	No	+$1	09-03 15:59
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C on September 7?	4	$162	82	82	+0	No	+$2	09-07 17:46
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 1?	2	$159	80	80	+0	No	+$1	09-01 07:15
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 31?	2	$159	80	80	+0	No	+$1	08-31 11:11
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 1?	3	$159	80	80	+0	No	+$1	09-01 11:12
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 24?	6	$159	80	80	+0	No	+$1	08-25 06:33
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 25?	2	$158	80	80	+0	No	+$1	08-25 11:16
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 18?	14	$148	78	78	+0	No	+$4	08-18 14:15
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 16?	4	$139	73	73	+0	No	-$2	08-16 11:39
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 17?	2	$139	70	70	+0	No	+$1	08-17 06:49
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on September 8?	11	$124	70	70	+0	No	-$12	09-08 21:03
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 30?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	08-30 07:05
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 28?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	08-28 19:55
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on August 26?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	08-26 19:24
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 26?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	08-26 08:20
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 26?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	08-26 17:30
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on September 6?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	09-06 15:25
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 21?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	08-21 08:39
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on September 4?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	09-04 20:16
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 23?	3	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	08-23 15:58
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 28?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	08-28 08:57
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 1?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	09-01 17:43
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 30?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	08-30 18:33
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 18?	3	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$1	08-19 06:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 10:57:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x4f3918…
10-29 09:57:56	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x722906…
10-29 09:55:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x48b627…
10-26 08:03:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0xa06c40…
10-18 09:37:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x0923cf…
10-17 07:48:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xdaa17e…
10-04 20:44:20	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 4?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0xb4ff57…
10-04 20:43:59	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 4?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x07b1c5…
10-04 19:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 4?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x9cf173…
10-04 17:02:38	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on October 4?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x5a9919…
10-04 17:02:22	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on October 4?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6f471c…
10-04 17:01:31	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on October 4?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x2cc116…
10-04 13:56:22	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 4?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf492f3…
10-04 13:54:01	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on October 4?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9abaec…
10-02 13:29:17	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 2?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0xd0db7e…
10-02 13:29:15	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 2?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xdd02dd…
10-02 11:49:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on October 2?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$27	0x708b0f…
10-02 11:43:38	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on October 2?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x34b2af…
10-02 11:31:42	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on October 2?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x5c5e45…
10-02 11:31:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on October 2?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x3db7e9…
10-02 11:29:56	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 2?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x77dded…
10-01 15:11:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on October 1?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x834ae4…
10-01 15:09:47	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on October 1?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x840f7c…
10-01 15:08:21	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on October 1?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x2a47d8…
10-01 07:31:14	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 1?	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0xeb714b…
10-01 07:22:05	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on October 1?	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x1f999f…
10-01 06:58:27	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 1?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$37	0x99a811…
10-01 06:58:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 1?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe74b21…
10-01 06:58:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 1?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x76c40a…
10-01 06:52:30	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on October 1?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x21105a…
10-01 06:51:59	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 1?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x60843d…
10-01 06:51:23	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 1?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x244a6c…
09-28 07:43:03	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9ee4f1…
09-28 07:42:41	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 28?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xdc8f6e…
09-28 07:40:30	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on September 28?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0f72c4…
09-28 07:40:14	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on September 28?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xc3d15e…
09-28 07:36:41	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 28?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x52c6e3…
09-28 07:36:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 28?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5f5cf7…
09-28 07:36:02	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on September 28?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfa01ee…
09-28 07:34:50	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 28?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xe1f3ad…
09-24 09:12:45	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on September 24?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x59ae87…
09-24 09:12:23	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on September 24?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9ad2cd…
09-24 09:11:57	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on September 24?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0x50f2a4…
09-22 23:06:26	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on September 22?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x4123e7…
09-22 22:18:13	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on September 22?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa53626…
09-22 22:18:04	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on September 22?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0b3801…
09-22 21:25:13	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on September 22?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x574b31…
09-22 21:24:39	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on September 22?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x647106…
09-22 21:24:19	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on September 22?	No	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x435f17…
09-22 21:24:04	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 22?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xb64714…
09-22 21:23:46	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on September 22?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x25a704…
09-21 09:43:42	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on September 21?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x62aa78…
09-21 09:43:02	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on September 21?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x481134…
09-21 09:40:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on September 21?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xc688f9…
09-21 09:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on September 21?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc286bc…
09-21 09:38:39	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on September 21?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x5603c8…
09-21 06:25:33	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on September 21?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbdf3f2…
09-21 06:24:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 21?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x6bd8d5…
09-20 07:47:52	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 20?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x64fa8e…
09-20 07:45:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on September 20?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x760b00…
09-20 07:44:56	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on September 20?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x3bc8d7…
09-20 07:44:26	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 20?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xb687bb…
09-20 07:44:16	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 20?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x08c2f3…
09-20 07:42:37	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 20?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x03b379…
09-20 07:42:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 20?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x8f36e3…
09-20 07:40:41	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on September 19?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x55460c…
09-19 20:20:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 20?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x62b4b9…
09-19 14:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 20?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x486a67…
09-19 14:40:35	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 20?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xf9dadf…
09-19 06:49:48	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 19?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x0231bb…
09-19 06:25:43	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on September 19?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x69cb0e…
09-18 20:21:13	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 19?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4f36c5…
09-18 20:20:10	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on September 18?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa6bd2f…
09-18 20:17:16	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on September 18?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x4df673…
09-18 20:16:51	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 18?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x010c20…
09-18 20:16:28	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 18?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd94284…
09-18 20:15:57	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on September 18?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xeb6db6…
09-18 20:15:42	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 18?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x4dccc7…
09-18 14:02:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 18?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xb52206…
09-18 13:57:56	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 18?	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x7d51aa…
09-18 13:56:30	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on September 18?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x12558e…
09-18 13:54:50	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 18?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xa4cbcf…
09-18 13:52:20	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 18?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xc392a5…
09-18 12:53:38	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 18?	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0xc45c45…
09-18 12:44:32	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 18?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x550140…
09-18 12:44:08	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 18?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xf56a16…
09-18 12:43:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 18?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xfce9b1…
09-18 12:42:35	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 18?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x268bf1…
09-18 12:41:08	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 18?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xefd0b2…
09-18 11:45:28	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on September 18?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe8eea9…
09-18 11:45:09	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 18?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6dae72…
09-18 09:02:51	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 18?	No	BUY	15	76¢	$11	0x68b6e9…
09-18 09:02:16	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 18?	No	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x35f408…
09-18 09:02:09	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 18?	No	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0x4c67ae…
09-18 08:53:09	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 18?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x9599f7…
09-18 08:52:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 18?	No	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0x0501d8…
09-18 06:50:54	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 18?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0xbe143e…
09-18 06:50:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 18?	No	BUY	65	95¢	$62	0xd7c3da…
09-18 06:50:43	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 18?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$34	0x14e5b1…
09-17 18:38:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 18?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0xecf259…