Serene-Sculpting — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.58K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.21K

Hit rate

95.7%

Resolved

9,651

Trades

23,258

lifetime

Volume

$4.21M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$181

Open exposure

$82.4K

6 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-29 09:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 124 days

Categories

Other

95% 99% +$3,282

Politics

4% 50% -$9,847

Sports

1% 96% -$118

Tech

0% 67% +$1,099

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 978 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	+59,207	$54,197	93¢	$54.9K	+$717	10-29 09:57
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	+18,093	$16,909	94¢	$16.9K	+$26	10-29 09:55
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	+6,176	$5,715	97¢	$6.0K	+$291	10-27 22:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	+2,491	$2,056	94¢	$2.4K	+$298	10-27 01:11
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	No	+1,269	$724	90¢	$1.1K	+$418	10-29 09:57
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	+1,106	$601	96¢	$1.1K	+$464	10-25 21:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	17	$140.6K	70,903	70,903	+0	No	+$327	07-28 12:46
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	8	$134.7K	73,934	73,934	+0	No	+$4,265	08-21 17:38
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	98	$115.0K	77,755	45,868	+31,887	Yes	+$7,290	10-23 23:48
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	44	$109.9K	59,495	59,495	+0	No	+$4,510	08-13 15:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	54	$90.8K	48,155	48,155	+0	No	+$4,223	10-15 15:25
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	58	$84.4K	87,731	8,576	+79,155	No	+$9,616	09-25 17:06
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	131	$67.6K	66,794	7,587	+59,207	open	—	10-29 09:57
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 15 20260810150912478	23	$60.0K	33,340	33,340	+0	No	+$2,182	08-19 15:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	24	$50.5K	30,195	30,195	+0	Yes	-$2,283	06-14 22:39
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	23	$33.8K	24,664	12,825	+11,839	No	+$2,270	09-20 16:22
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 3?	7	$31.5K	31,581	0	+31,581	No	+$32	09-03 05:49
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	39	$23.7K	25,334	5	+25,329	No	+$1,589	08-13 21:45
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	37	$23.0K	23,239	23,172	+67	Yes	-$22,859	08-04 16:16
Will the lowest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on August 28?	14	$21.8K	21,827	0	+21,827	No	+$28	08-29 01:12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	28	$20.8K	12,302	11,033	+1,269	open	—	10-29 09:57
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	27	$20.0K	10,863	10,863	+0	No	+$97	10-13 22:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	6	$19.9K	12,094	9,603	+2,491	open	—	10-27 01:11
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	27	$16.9K	18,093	0	+18,093	open	—	10-29 09:55
Will the lowest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on September 11?	7	$16.1K	16,106	0	+16,106	No	+$16	09-11 20:37
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	43	$13.8K	7,495	7,495	+0	open	—	10-29 09:32
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	22	$12.6K	9,758	3,582	+6,176	open	—	10-27 22:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$11.9K	12,336	12,336	+0	Yes	-$8,914	06-14 22:38
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4?	26	$11.6K	5,882	5,882	-0	Yes	+$201	06-04 20:14
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on August 27?	2	$11.5K	11,478	0	+11,478	No	+$12	08-26 21:32
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	13	$10.9K	9,578	1,725	+7,853	No	+$297	10-26 12:43
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 31?	7	$10.9K	10,905	0	+10,905	No	+$30	08-31 15:54
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 5?	2	$10.5K	10,500	0	+10,500	No	+$28	09-05 22:48
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 29?	2	$10.2K	10,236	0	+10,236	Yes	+$11	08-29 23:56
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8?	34	$9.9K	5,186	5,186	+0	Yes	+$435	06-08 21:27
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	22	$9.6K	4,968	4,968	-0	No	+$94	08-04 18:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:57:28	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	172	94¢	$162	0x852cad…
10-29 09:57:05	Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	No	BUY	137	89¢	$122	0x8dd75a…
10-29 09:55:44	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xcb3b8f…
10-29 09:55:16	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x094a5f…
10-29 09:54:58	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xcd8fad…
10-29 09:54:53	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	97	94¢	$91	0x763830…
10-29 09:54:47	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	245	94¢	$231	0x84feb6…
10-29 09:54:43	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	4,793	94¢	$4,524	0x58f620…
10-29 09:54:28	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	257	94¢	$243	0x05d932…
10-29 09:54:22	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	718	94¢	$677	0x78ea63…
10-29 09:32:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	6,225	99¢	$6,187	0x407a25…
10-29 09:26:41	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xed4ddc…
10-29 09:26:23	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	180	94¢	$170	0x41c753…
10-29 09:25:58	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	184	94¢	$173	0x1b217a…
10-29 09:25:52	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	219	94¢	$206	0xda6a68…
10-29 09:25:47	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	109	94¢	$102	0x13ca61…
10-29 09:25:29	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	272	94¢	$256	0xf8892f…
10-29 09:25:16	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	138	94¢	$129	0x2ef4d5…
10-29 09:24:04	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	1,142	99¢	$1,130	0xde09e7…
10-29 00:32:56	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	26	93¢	$24	0xcc6cb8…
10-29 00:32:40	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x3cca94…
10-29 00:32:23	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xd0eab8…
10-29 00:15:46	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xc53454…
10-29 00:15:22	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb7adc5…
10-29 00:12:23	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0x288dcd…
10-29 00:12:05	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x434844…
10-28 21:37:25	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	28	93¢	$26	0xfd0928…
10-28 21:36:04	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xc2cc9e…
10-27 23:34:48	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	582	80¢	$466	0x13b48e…
10-27 23:34:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	162	80¢	$129	0x341bb0…
10-27 23:34:11	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x058934…
10-27 23:34:06	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xf0d816…
10-27 23:34:06	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0xce40e4…
10-27 23:34:00	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xbc3b44…
10-27 23:32:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	673	80¢	$538	0x51f986…
10-27 23:32:12	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	162	80¢	$129	0xc2dd91…
10-27 23:32:06	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	163	80¢	$130	0x905ada…
10-27 23:31:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x864efc…
10-27 23:31:51	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x7a00c2…
10-27 23:31:47	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	187	80¢	$149	0x5b0c40…
10-27 23:31:32	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	170	80¢	$136	0x22b65e…
10-27 23:31:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x7b3359…
10-27 23:31:20	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x6eeccc…
10-27 23:31:12	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x92134a…
10-27 23:30:36	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x2ba33c…
10-27 23:30:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x929b7e…
10-27 23:29:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x19a8ab…
10-27 23:29:32	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x0f1e18…
10-27 23:29:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xd4692d…
10-27 23:29:20	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0xf3f2e5…
10-27 23:29:17	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x08ee79…
10-27 23:21:50	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	94	76¢	$71	0x52e0f3…
10-27 23:21:39	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	51	77¢	$39	0xf99b83…
10-27 23:19:27	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1,162	76¢	$889	0x23496a…
10-27 23:17:11	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	3,647	80¢	$2,918	0xad2d08…
10-27 22:05:08	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1,541	88¢	$1,356	0xbd5184…
10-27 22:04:42	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	1,409	96¢	$1,355	0x0f9d27…
10-27 22:01:42	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x2be750…
10-27 22:01:27	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	42	90¢	$38	0x60ee1b…
10-27 21:57:51	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	79	92¢	$73	0xcde96c…
10-27 21:57:44	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0xba83c9…
10-27 21:56:57	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x2ec473…
10-27 21:56:21	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x3472d0…
10-27 21:47:24	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	221	93¢	$206	0x17b05a…
10-27 21:47:08	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	38	96¢	$37	0xc41449…
10-27 21:47:02	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x15be9d…
10-27 21:46:56	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	167	96¢	$161	0xe0575b…
10-27 21:45:32	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1,743	93¢	$1,625	0x83b335…
10-27 21:45:11	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xe85770…
10-27 21:45:05	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0xfba109…
10-27 21:44:59	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x7531c9…
10-27 21:43:47	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x0a870f…
10-27 21:43:42	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	1,194	96¢	$1,150	0x400b4d…
10-27 21:43:20	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0xc0ab59…
10-27 21:43:15	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	548	96¢	$528	0xeb80af…
10-27 15:07:50	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$11	0xb7f816…
10-27 13:16:56	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x821bd2…
10-27 13:16:42	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	No	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x9dc200…
10-27 13:16:29	Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xbaa998…
10-27 13:16:24	Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place?	No	BUY	25	59¢	$14	0x985d3e…
10-27 13:16:06	Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place?	No	BUY	94	56¢	$53	0xb7baf5…
10-27 13:15:23	Will an F1 race be held in Qatar in 2026?	No	BUY	116	50¢	$58	0xc2494d…
10-27 13:15:08	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	No	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0x663c15…
10-27 12:05:47	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	129	96¢	$124	0xe99b6f…
10-27 12:01:09	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	704	95¢	$667	0x718aaa…
10-27 12:01:05	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	718	95¢	$681	0xd63287…
10-27 12:00:03	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	226	95¢	$214	0x2f0dd2…
10-27 11:58:56	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	110	95¢	$104	0x838e65…
10-27 11:58:45	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x878922…
10-27 11:55:42	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	116	95¢	$110	0xa0673e…
10-27 11:54:03	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	226	95¢	$214	0x557d34…
10-27 11:53:54	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	117	95¢	$111	0xd1c936…
10-27 11:51:59	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	123	95¢	$117	0x5f4816…
10-27 11:49:47	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	485	96¢	$466	0x80a005…
10-27 11:47:50	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	290	95¢	$275	0x0319b6…
10-27 11:47:44	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	220	95¢	$208	0x5f134f…
10-27 11:47:12	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xc94a2f…
10-27 10:43:20	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	67	96¢	$64	0x668a6e…
10-27 10:42:53	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	710	95¢	$672	0xfe32b6…
10-27 10:42:44	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	800	95¢	$757	0xeb9559…