Flickering-Wing — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$1.74K

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

67.9%

Resolved (90d)

227

Trades (90d)

1,032

2,576 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$35.3K

$69.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 11-13 15:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 88 days

Categories

Other

52% 45% -$173

Politics

42% 39% -$664

Crypto

5% 43% +$47

Sports

1% 17% +$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 62 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes		+130	$13	0¢	$0	-$13	11-03 23:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will seguro win portugals abroad votes	24	$3.7K	6,369	6,369	+0	No	-$2,967	02-12 23:33
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	24	$2.7K	2,363	2,363	+0	Yes	+$482	01-23 18:10
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	54	$2.5K	8,854	8,868	-14	No	-$29	01-14 17:49
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	18	$2.4K	1,972	1,972	+0	Yes	+$579	11-12 13:54
will joo cotrim de figueiredo win between 14 and 16 of votes in the first round	19	$2.3K	2,122	2,122	+0	No	+$638	01-18 23:31
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$1.6K	1,369	1,369	+0	Yes	+$443	10-25 23:49
will andr ventura win between 24 and 26 of votes in the first round	8	$1.6K	893	893	+0	No	+$224	01-19 08:21
will sarah knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	56	$1.5K	2,214	2,214	+0	No	+$68	03-17 15:04
will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	21	$1.3K	971	971	+0	No	+$145	04-12 19:25
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	13	$1.3K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	11-13 15:33
atp bergs sakella 2026 08 21	2	$1.3K	930	930	+0	Stefanos Sakellaridis	+$594	08-21 23:30
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	9	$1.2K	856	856	+0	Yes	+$425	11-04 03:07
will our homeland movement mi haznk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	53	$1.1K	3,401	3,401	+0	Yes	-$908	04-14 17:14
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat?	27	$1.1K	1,395	1,395	+0	open	—	11-04 06:26
will lus marques mendes win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	10	$1.1K	669	668	+2	No	+$186	01-18 23:10
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	11	$1.0K	618	618	+0	Yes	+$189	08-19 03:27
Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	3	$1.0K	609	609	+0	No	+$207	08-19 03:34
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026?	5	$979	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	11-12 15:03
will henrique gouveia e melo win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	14	$942	436	636	-200	Yes	+$127	01-18 22:58
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	17	$933	655	655	+0	Yes	+$372	09-09 02:33
atp musetti tiafoe 2026 08 21	2	$880	667	667	+0	Frances Tiafoe	+$280	08-22 00:46
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	10	$877	552	552	+0	Yes	+$98	09-13 20:29
Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	15	$826	597	597	+0	Yes	+$360	08-18 23:40
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	10	$800	828	828	+0	Yes	+$613	09-10 05:00
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	112	$781	23,561	23,561	+0	No	-$92	09-19 23:56
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	7	$771	490	490	+0	No	+$186	01-30 09:30
itf senn bieldiu 2026 08 21	11	$761	1,088	1,088	+0	Tymur Bieldiugin	-$66	08-21 22:39
Will Darline Graham Nordone win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?	6	$731	423	423	+0	Yes	+$98	08-25 23:19
Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	10	$702	858	858	+0	Yes	+$98	10-30 18:21
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	21	$672	819	819	+0	Yes	-$169	08-26 01:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 15:33:13	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xda62bf…
11-13 15:33:13	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	SELL	700	85¢	$598	0x340060…
11-13 15:31:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	SELL	101	89¢	$90	0x67edf4…
11-13 15:18:09	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	SELL	90	90¢	$81	0x9dc61a…
11-13 15:17:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x7d264d…
11-13 15:00:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	SELL	60	70¢	$42	0xd62dd0…
11-13 15:00:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	SELL	39	70¢	$27	0x36e44a…
11-13 13:35:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	BUY	151	16¢	$24	0xfdd534…
11-13 13:35:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	BUY	94	16¢	$15	0xf158c7…
11-13 13:35:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	BUY	148	16¢	$24	0x250d06…
11-13 13:35:15	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xeeef6d…
11-13 08:14:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	BUY	500	47¢	$235	0x1cd40c…
11-13 08:12:15	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Down	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0xd234dd…
11-12 21:00:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	SELL	65	100¢	$64	0xfa62a2…
11-12 21:00:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xffe434…
11-12 20:59:01	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xbecbdd…
11-12 20:59:01	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x3631f8…
11-12 20:57:49	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0x410586…
11-12 18:52:19	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	SELL	128	67¢	$86	0x937cd6…
11-12 18:51:55	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0xb3a1a5…
11-12 17:56:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	BUY	45	26¢	$12	0x75973c…
11-12 17:29:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0xb48fdc…
11-12 17:25:07	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0xd8c188…
11-12 17:22:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xf9741c…
11-12 17:22:09	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	BUY	9	41¢	$4	0xe346e0…
11-12 17:21:37	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	BUY	42	41¢	$17	0x929ad6…
11-12 17:21:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	BUY	52	41¢	$21	0x75b071…
11-12 17:21:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	BUY	28	41¢	$12	0x4159e9…
11-12 15:03:28	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	575	52¢	$297	0xb06d6a…
11-12 15:02:03	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	427	52¢	$222	0x0ac891…
11-12 14:42:36	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	360	47¢	$169	0x953a93…
11-12 14:41:09	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	322	46¢	$148	0xc5b8fd…
11-12 14:40:57	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	320	45¢	$143	0x5412c9…
11-12 13:54:07	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	536	100¢	$535	0x5c61ff…
11-12 13:54:06	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x12d4ad…
11-12 13:53:54	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0223e0…
11-12 12:10:15	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0x60740f…
11-12 11:44:21	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	819	52¢	$426	0x29d9bb…
11-12 11:17:16	Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs angry birds (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Playoffs	Zero Tenacity	SELL	91	99¢	$91	0xb84d05…
11-12 10:55:46	Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs angry birds (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Playoffs	Zero Tenacity	BUY	21	55¢	$12	0xa4000c…
11-12 10:54:55	Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs angry birds (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Playoffs	Zero Tenacity	BUY	70	54¢	$38	0xe7f010…
11-12 10:51:10	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	SELL	734	56¢	$411	0xe3b729…
11-12 09:28:18	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x7a30b2…
11-11 23:34:01	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	352	32¢	$113	0x0341b8…
11-11 23:30:57	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x491d13…
11-11 23:24:45	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x6ac94c…
11-11 23:19:06	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	35	47¢	$17	0xa44d06…
11-11 23:07:22	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	125	51¢	$64	0xfa902b…
11-11 23:04:54	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	148	47¢	$69	0x834f21…
11-11 23:03:22	jensen huang announced resignation or removal by november 13 2026	Yes	SELL	201	55¢	$110	0xbddbea…
11-11 23:03:18	jensen huang announced resignation or removal by november 13 2026	Yes	SELL	200	55¢	$110	0x2085d7…
11-11 22:54:37	jensen huang announced resignation or removal by november 13 2026	Yes	BUY	300	40¢	$120	0xd65d00…
11-11 22:54:33	jensen huang announced resignation or removal by november 13 2026	Yes	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x5cd6ab…
11-11 22:53:10	jensen huang announced resignation or removal by november 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x947dcb…
11-11 22:30:43	Orleans: Mattia Bellucci vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg	SELL	40	59¢	$24	0xbdfe38…
11-11 22:20:12	Orleans: Mattia Bellucci vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xb2ddf7…
11-11 22:18:10	Orleans: Mattia Bellucci vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xe89dae…
11-11 21:59:45	Dota 2: Froglings vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Froglings	SELL	62	98¢	$60	0x6b733d…
11-11 21:53:00	Dota 2: Froglings vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Froglings	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xd44a26…
11-11 21:49:37	Dota 2: Froglings vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Froglings	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x75e717…
11-11 21:44:57	Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	PlayTime	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xb73fce…
11-11 21:41:25	Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	PlayTime	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0x0a63a0…
11-11 21:39:28	Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	Yellow Submarine	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0xc7735e…
11-11 21:25:22	Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	Yellow Submarine	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x15d7fa…
11-11 21:21:27	Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	Yellow Submarine	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0x7a55ea…
11-06 17:04:12	Taranto: Kilian Feldbausch vs Sumit Nagal	Sumit Nagal	SELL	222	54¢	$120	0x620136…
11-06 14:53:43	Taranto: Kilian Feldbausch vs Sumit Nagal	Sumit Nagal	BUY	222	37¢	$82	0xb2ba0b…
11-06 14:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x3d0012…
11-06 14:09:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0xeccc98…
11-06 13:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x7db4d3…
11-06 13:43:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	52	75¢	$39	0x27d385…
11-06 13:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0xb3005c…
11-06 13:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	129	79¢	$102	0x0a5249…
11-06 13:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa0dd55…
11-06 13:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x35ff6b…
11-06 13:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xefb9eb…
11-06 13:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x1496e4…
11-06 13:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x054732…
11-06 13:04:39	Luanda: Sofya Lansere vs Martyna Kubka	Sofya Lansere	SELL	153	45¢	$70	0x6c88d0…
11-06 11:43:54	Luanda: Sofya Lansere vs Martyna Kubka	Sofya Lansere	BUY	153	41¢	$63	0x6186d0…
11-05 23:42:09	LIU Sharks vs. Seton Hall Pirates	LIU Sharks	BUY	65	8¢	$5	0x957e5f…
11-05 23:40:33	Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat?	No	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0xad4884…
11-05 23:40:33	Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat?	No	SELL	70	6¢	$4	0x56d2a1…
11-05 23:08:39	LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Dplus KIA	BUY	131	47¢	$62	0xb2e120…
11-05 23:08:07	Costa do Sauipe: Thiago Monteiro vs Marco Cecchinato	Thiago Monteiro	SELL	204	32¢	$65	0x84e7ab…
11-05 22:31:36	Costa do Sauipe: Thiago Monteiro vs Marco Cecchinato	Thiago Monteiro	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x5250bf…
11-05 22:30:19	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	107	96¢	$103	0xfb9582…
11-05 01:21:42	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	768	3¢	$19	0x260525…
11-05 00:37:19	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	768	3¢	$22	0x77055e…
11-05 00:29:54	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	2¢	$1	0x653c51…
11-04 18:10:00	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xe508e9…
11-04 09:38:42	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	602	17¢	$102	0x2209fe…
11-04 09:36:25	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	184	87¢	$160	0x603751…
11-04 08:34:04	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	81	11¢	$9	0xf35c00…
11-04 08:01:30	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	643	24¢	$152	0x7f6046…
11-04 07:57:48	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	165	12¢	$20	0x55d0b0…
11-04 07:51:25	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xcbaa1c…
11-04 07:44:16	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	138	66¢	$92	0x62c029…
11-04 07:43:54	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	36	66¢	$24	0x3f2263…
11-04 06:59:51	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x78b345…