Neglected-Sparerib — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$56.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

68.2%

Resolved

768

Trades

2,672

lifetime

Volume

$1.42M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$531

Open exposure

$973

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 11-01 06:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 137 days

Categories

Politics

89% 73% +$57,924

Other

8% 79% +$726

Sports

1% 65% -$83

Tech

1% 86% -$1,747

Crypto

0% 43% +$32

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	No	+412	$400	97¢	$398	-$2	11-01 06:50
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+316	$300	94¢	$298	-$2	11-01 06:43
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?	No	+211	$200	94¢	$199	-$1	11-01 06:45
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+81	$79	96¢	$78	-$2	10-27 19:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	48	$291.9K	236,684	104,251	+132,433	No	+$22,855	04-25 17:12
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	96	$280.7K	151,812	151,812	+0	No	-$6,312	06-16 13:52
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	28	$132.5K	145,348	110	+145,238	No	+$12,906	05-29 10:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	65	$92.5K	66,709	67,451	-742	No	+$60	05-27 16:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	30	$77.0K	83,430	0	+83,430	No	+$6,405	05-12 09:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	7	$55.7K	69,975	0	+69,975	No	+$14,301	04-16 09:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	18	$40.6K	24,150	24,150	+0	Yes	-$1,784	06-11 20:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	3	$36.8K	40,678	0	+40,678	No	+$3,845	05-10 08:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	9	$30.8K	33,003	0	+33,003	No	+$2,211	05-07 21:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$14.1K	15,277	0	+15,277	No	+$1,222	06-01 17:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	21	$13.2K	12,000	12,094	-94	No	-$5,299	04-07 23:25
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	18	$12.9K	63,846	63,846	+0	No	-$1,300	01-31 17:05
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	58	$12.7K	12,895	8,502	+4,393	No	-$7,022	05-22 18:23
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	8	$11.7K	7,006	5,474	+1,532	No	+$581	03-18 16:28
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	10	$11.5K	9,096	9,096	+0	No	+$1,319	03-11 09:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	24	$11.1K	11,893	3,341	+8,552	No	+$2,974	05-23 18:29
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	8	$10.8K	6,866	6,866	+0	No	-$782	06-16 13:09
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	10	$10.6K	10,691	0	+10,691	Yes	+$81	05-21 15:03
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	12	$9.9K	11,501	0	+11,501	Yes	+$1,639	05-17 07:51
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	38	$9.8K	6,124	6,124	+0	No	-$451	04-12 07:36
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	18	$9.2K	8,000	8,000	+0	Yes	+$6,430	02-28 06:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$8.9K	9,244	0	+9,244	No	+$346	05-10 15:43
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	16	$8.9K	7,002	7,002	+0	Yes	-$468	03-02 20:45
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	18	$7.3K	4,651	4,351	+300	No	+$1,490	03-12 15:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$6.4K	5,414	5,414	+0	Yes	-$2,030	04-07 22:39
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?	21	$6.1K	4,701	3,621	+1,080	No	+$1,751	04-04 20:53
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15?	5	$5.9K	6,146	0	+6,146	No	+$240	05-12 05:55
will trump declare war on iran by march 31 2026	25	$5.4K	2,841	2,924	-83	No	+$209	03-25 08:00
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	2	$5.1K	6,250	6,250	+0	No	+$1,101	01-14 22:13
nba chi hou 2026 01 13	4	$5.0K	6,140	0	+6,140	Rockets	+$1,101	01-13 12:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 06:50:43	Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0xccee8a…
11-01 06:50:16	Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x0a8b33…
11-01 06:49:54	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	326	92¢	$300	0x17dc7a…
11-01 06:49:40	Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	319	94¢	$300	0x81f195…
11-01 06:49:09	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	944	92¢	$867	0x8d5c3a…
11-01 06:45:54	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-21 House seat?	No	BUY	444	90¢	$400	0x474a5e…
11-01 06:45:39	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat?	No	BUY	337	89¢	$300	0x6eecb2…
11-01 06:45:22	Will the Democratic Party win the MI-01 House seat?	No	BUY	569	88¢	$500	0xb1bca6…
11-01 06:45:01	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xceb609…
11-01 06:44:48	Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?	No	BUY	221	91¢	$200	0x022a15…
11-01 06:44:21	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0x24d583…
11-01 06:43:48	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0x33c0eb…
10-29 17:07:25	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	778	75¢	$583	0xe4a69d…
10-29 17:06:40	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	18	76¢	$14	0x2d5a18…
10-27 19:02:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	170	40¢	$67	0xe45f9e…
10-27 19:02:33	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	344	92¢	$317	0xf1f2ab…
10-27 19:00:59	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	321	39¢	$125	0xf64a77…
10-27 19:00:14	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	81	98¢	$79	0x95babf…
10-27 18:59:09	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	105	39¢	$41	0x7a0f93…
10-24 22:15:38	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	97	86¢	$83	0xc29623…
10-24 21:08:56	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	503	86¢	$433	0x018cab…
09-15 05:42:43	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	292	86¢	$251	0xb2ea84…
09-10 09:59:13	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 3?	Yes	BUY	164	96¢	$157	0x6f2ff4…
08-28 14:50:49	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30–$2.40 in August?	No	BUY	1,106	70¢	$774	0x85e59f…
08-28 14:48:46	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 28 2026	Yes	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x38d322…
08-28 14:47:49	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xda68b3…
08-28 14:47:49	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	BUY	53	69¢	$37	0x7d2981…
08-28 14:47:36	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	BUY	19	69¢	$13	0x7172f7…
08-28 14:47:34	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1,019	69¢	$703	0x2c4778…
08-20 19:16:58	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0xfc99b4…
08-20 19:16:25	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	33	44¢	$14	0xf61ec8…
08-20 19:06:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	149	44¢	$65	0xe6a17a…
08-18 18:10:16	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	Yes	BUY	405	95¢	$385	0x6371b7…
08-16 02:25:48	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 16 2026 20260724221849647	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xe508b6…
08-15 19:20:06	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 16 2026 20260724221849647	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x83c9a6…
08-15 18:42:45	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026 20260810145737301	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x4d2ce0…
08-15 18:15:07	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026 20260810145737301	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xe75b9b…
08-13 19:43:21	Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during remarks in New York?	Yes	BUY	225	81¢	$182	0xa94f0f…
08-12 18:36:10	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	154	77¢	$119	0xe6fe55…
08-12 07:13:16	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	489	73¢	$357	0x44de69…
08-12 07:08:10	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x13046b…
08-12 07:08:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xfd5724…
08-12 07:08:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x11c381…
08-12 07:01:28	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x000df0…
08-12 06:58:57	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x9220d2…
08-12 06:57:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0x84c23c…
08-12 06:56:37	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xf5e3ab…
08-12 06:44:13	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0xc88e83…
08-12 06:44:12	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x172e30…
08-12 06:41:06	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	105	73¢	$77	0x84f9da…
08-06 09:37:54	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 8 2026 20260724221849639	Yes	BUY	14	83¢	$12	0x20c444…
08-05 09:05:06	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 7 2026 20260724221849638	Yes	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x6a9d09…
08-05 09:05:00	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 6 2026 20260724221849637	Yes	BUY	124	76¢	$94	0x317aa1…
08-04 16:54:27	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x832bfb…
08-04 16:54:00	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x7280a7…
08-04 16:52:20	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xf0f4e8…
08-04 16:52:20	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x1ab398…
08-04 16:52:18	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xe73418…
08-04 16:43:15	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x840e42…
08-04 16:43:14	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x84168f…
08-04 12:03:56	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x976a3a…
08-04 11:43:06	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x86d0c2…
08-04 11:40:57	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xeaf891…
08-04 11:39:59	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xca363c…
08-04 11:34:00	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xe8a8f2…
08-04 11:20:56	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x416b45…
08-04 11:19:02	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x3ab54f…
08-04 11:10:54	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x29fd89…
08-04 10:16:12	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x3c4583…
08-04 10:05:48	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x02b50f…
08-04 10:04:32	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x174719…
08-04 10:01:12	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x20f1d3…
08-04 09:59:02	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x5131be…
08-04 09:48:36	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x9e3915…
08-04 09:27:05	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x01a83b…
08-04 09:27:03	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x98d9d3…
08-04 09:25:36	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xe33ae2…
08-04 08:52:15	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xb44d5a…
08-04 08:48:06	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xae0ce4…
08-04 08:47:39	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xa7f6b2…
08-04 08:47:23	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x969a2c…
08-04 08:42:00	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	65	77¢	$50	0xdeb198…
08-04 08:35:47	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x3947a2…
08-04 08:33:50	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x48639d…
08-04 08:27:15	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xf96c7f…
08-04 08:27:15	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x4bb14d…
08-03 21:00:24	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0xb332ed…
08-03 17:57:38	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?	No	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0xa88113…
08-02 09:58:50	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 17 2026 20260724221849648	Yes	BUY	306	86¢	$263	0x973879…
08-01 13:21:47	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x2fbe2d…
07-31 08:08:00	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	150	77¢	$116	0xa43ff5…
07-31 08:05:47	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	50	77¢	$38	0xc314c0…
07-31 08:05:44	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	50	77¢	$38	0xd1c174…
07-31 08:05:33	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	No	SELL	22	77¢	$17	0x7ca2d6…
07-30 09:03:06	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 31 2026 20260727160618747	Yes	SELL	224	94¢	$211	0xb394bb…
07-30 08:28:41	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 31 2026 20260727160618747	Yes	SELL	27	94¢	$25	0xd9a069…
07-30 08:18:20	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 31 2026 20260727160618747	Yes	SELL	49	94¢	$46	0xd0248f…
07-30 07:25:32	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 31 2026 20260727160618747	Yes	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x93a3a3…
07-30 07:25:03	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 31 2026 20260727160618747	Yes	SELL	65	94¢	$61	0x0257e1…
07-30 07:19:11	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 31 2026 20260727160618747	Yes	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xe90994…