Cold-Holiday — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.26K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

36.5%

Resolved

Trades

2,054

lifetime

Volume

$378.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$184

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 06-02 11:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

47% 0% $-355

Other

36% 100% +$83

Crypto

17% 40% $-988

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	33	$43.3K	34,250	34,254	-3	open	—	04-02 09:30
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	76	$20.5K	12,225	12,225	+0	open	—	03-21 21:12
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	26	$18.8K	18,609	18,609	+0	open	—	04-03 12:45
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	21	$14.7K	15,418	15,418	+0	open	—	04-04 10:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	14	$13.0K	15,000	14,204	+796	open	—	04-05 01:26
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	48	$12.0K	8,821	8,821	+0	open	—	04-28 13:49
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	6	$10.5K	7,516	7,516	+0	open	—	02-28 02:13
gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	66	$9.9K	11,406	13,658	-2,253	open	—	01-29 19:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	24	$9.7K	11,424	11,399	+25	open	—	04-23 07:47
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	7	$8.9K	6,057	6,057	+0	open	—	03-07 22:52
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	14	$8.2K	7,660	7,660	+0	open	—	02-28 07:13
will xrp reach 1pt8 in february 2026	13	$8.0K	9,406	9,406	+0	open	—	02-15 21:23
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$7.9K	4,934	4,934	+0	open	—	03-06 13:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April?	21	$7.4K	4,200	4,181	+19	open	—	04-07 19:57
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?	36	$7.4K	5,819	6,503	-685	open	—	02-02 23:41
will gold gc hit high 5300 by end of january 386 158	11	$7.4K	4,322	4,322	+0	open	—	01-28 21:16
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	79	$6.5K	35,800	24,800	+11,000	open	—	02-23 11:27
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	13	$5.9K	18,801	17,070	+1,730	open	—	03-24 11:32
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	16	$5.9K	6,939	2,000	+4,939	open	—	05-19 02:28
will xrp dip to 1pt4 in february 2026	8	$5.6K	6,406	4,552	+1,854	open	—	02-03 12:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$5.4K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	05-10 20:58
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	17	$4.7K	15,000	3,000	+12,000	open	—	04-05 03:52
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	5	$4.7K	2,600	2,600	+0	open	—	03-07 22:39
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	10	$4.4K	3,614	3,614	-0	open	—	02-09 12:15
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	20	$4.2K	7,670	2,008	+5,662	open	—	02-13 01:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	18	$4.2K	2,600	2,600	+0	open	—	05-10 20:59
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	7	$4.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-15 23:01
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	11	$3.5K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	01-31 14:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	4	$3.5K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	05-15 17:22
will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	15	$3.4K	5,045	689	+4,356	open	—	02-02 19:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 11:16:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	484	99¢	$478	0xd5e776…
05-31 19:56:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,034	89¢	$917	0xfe00bb…
05-20 14:37:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	83¢	$38	0x4a5618…
05-20 12:08:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	83¢	$6	0x4b0692…
05-20 11:34:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	83¢	$74	0xa9821c…
05-20 11:32:58	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x187254…
05-20 11:03:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	83¢	$13	0xd63a95…
05-20 08:23:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	83¢	$23	0xdf0080…
05-19 03:28:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0x4c5cd2…
05-19 02:28:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	566	32¢	$179	0x7a77aa…
05-19 02:24:58	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	32¢	$4	0x3fc6d2…
05-19 02:07:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	32¢	$14	0x69662d…
05-19 01:26:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	380	32¢	$120	0x7cfb6e…
05-19 00:11:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0xe931a3…
05-18 10:31:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	69¢	$688	0xda9749…
05-18 04:50:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	285	31¢	$88	0x30e748…
05-18 04:17:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	715	31¢	$219	0xe548bb…
05-18 04:12:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0x1a9296…
05-18 04:04:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	539	69¢	$374	0x272782…
05-18 03:56:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	461	69¢	$320	0xe2f717…
05-15 17:44:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,912	79¢	$1,506	0xddc1ae…
05-15 17:38:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x1ccf34…
05-15 17:34:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	79¢	$47	0x85e73e…
05-15 17:28:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x7a3e45…
05-15 17:22:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,500	74¢	$1,853	0xaca0f0…
05-15 17:19:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,156	79¢	$912	0x11f2af…
05-15 17:16:58	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,008	78¢	$788	0x742175…
05-15 17:12:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	774	78¢	$602	0xfad801…
05-14 19:45:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x1204f1…
05-14 19:39:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xf87e4c…
05-10 20:59:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	600	90¢	$540	0x0ec042…
05-10 20:58:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	3,000	95¢	$2,844	0x164ec8…
05-07 07:56:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	29	74¢	$21	0xd65aca…
05-07 07:54:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x7ebff2…
05-07 07:43:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xd9e3c9…
05-07 07:42:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0xb4c819…
05-07 07:42:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xd95dd4…
05-07 07:41:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x94c083…
05-07 07:41:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xb8515f…
05-07 07:41:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x68c07e…
05-07 07:36:19	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x72f1b4…
05-06 22:31:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x1f2a90…
05-06 11:37:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	85¢	$2,546	0x850fbf…
05-06 03:45:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	487	61¢	$297	0xd1f839…
05-06 02:44:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0xa4cfbc…
05-06 02:15:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	SELL	133	69¢	$92	0x4ad0b6…
05-06 01:36:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0x57abb7…
05-06 00:06:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,000	28¢	$280	0x497566…
05-05 22:55:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	65¢	$1,300	0x9e9e4c…
05-05 12:31:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0x858ad2…
05-05 00:30:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	34	89¢	$31	0x016d50…
05-04 23:35:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,776	89¢	$1,581	0x374b57…
05-04 21:22:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	136	66¢	$90	0xd11e42…
05-04 21:10:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	64	66¢	$42	0xaea9c7…
05-04 20:49:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0xb3529b…
05-04 16:45:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	SELL	8,000	14¢	$1,120	0x2052d3…
05-03 20:46:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	SELL	867	70¢	$607	0x31dc06…
05-03 03:27:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	36	83¢	$30	0x4b2c57…
05-03 03:25:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	141	83¢	$117	0xfb791b…
05-03 03:25:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0xc4a771…
05-02 22:32:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	585	26¢	$152	0xe3f579…
05-02 21:31:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	17	26¢	$4	0xfe6b3a…
05-02 15:36:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	35	26¢	$9	0x7be203…
05-02 13:49:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xe73d86…
05-02 13:29:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x12f91a…
05-02 12:35:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xb54394…
05-02 12:35:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0xa1eda1…
05-02 11:55:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	29	26¢	$8	0xf51527…
05-02 11:49:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	316	26¢	$82	0x552723…
05-02 03:39:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	133	68¢	$91	0x6a3896…
05-02 03:24:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	69¢	$1,380	0xc073ac…
05-02 02:09:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	140	68¢	$95	0x25e295…
05-02 02:08:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0xd4ca71…
05-02 02:07:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0xdd5838…
05-02 01:51:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x3ff031…
05-02 01:21:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	625	68¢	$425	0x95ac7d…
05-02 00:18:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xa2fcac…
05-01 22:51:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	51	68¢	$35	0x53cb67…
05-01 20:59:30	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 1?	Yes	SELL	270	94¢	$254	0x77c6d8…
05-01 20:58:12	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 1?	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xa24cc9…
05-01 20:57:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 1?	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xf1cfb3…
05-01 20:57:38	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 1?	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x050b3e…
05-01 20:55:10	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	300	87¢	$261	0xe092a6…
05-01 14:15:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	6,583	13¢	$856	0xf8322f…
05-01 14:13:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	1,300	13¢	$169	0x543fd6…
05-01 14:13:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xb9a1ee…
05-01 14:13:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	111	13¢	$14	0xa3aaae…
04-30 23:13:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	SELL	2,000	51¢	$1,020	0x5f6866…
04-30 14:36:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	SELL	63	28¢	$18	0xd6ad85…
04-30 14:36:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,783	28¢	$499	0xc37fdd…
04-30 14:36:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	SELL	92	28¢	$26	0x950c3e…
04-30 14:34:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	SELL	36	28¢	$10	0x6b65da…
04-30 14:29:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xbb18f6…
04-30 14:25:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	SELL	14	28¢	$4	0x447041…
04-30 14:22:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x6e52db…
04-30 13:26:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	39	12¢	$5	0x08d1c0…
04-30 13:24:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0xff4142…
04-30 13:19:40	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	950	12¢	$114	0xfe4787…
04-30 13:02:30	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	349	80¢	$279	0x8a5243…
04-30 13:02:08	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	94	80¢	$75	0x9ce185…